EastonSN+

Fairfield CT already at 33. Given model trends not sure if south of Merritt can get accums. Agreed the thump can overcome the temps however so far the 12z models not great.

Yeah mixing reaches CT coast

This is a pretty strong wave -

Reggie looks horrible down here. Removed accums IMBY.

I am only 1 mile north. However they are trending warmer.

NAM took away my buffer (removed LI snow). Definitely warmer south coast. Literally no margin now.

Lol I am literally within 1 mile (north) of the Merritt.

I am right on that line of 0.5 and 6 lol

Crazy cut off SW CT

They meant the 6 z

Through hour 26

Regular formula NAM

Nam 3 k

I feel safer when Long Island gets some.

Nice. Sooo close to the coast with the good stuff

Could that be a cold and dry look? Seems as though trough is a bit east.

That's true, but do we know why that area is warming faster, and why the western IO cannot overtake it in warmth? My point just being it can change like when the warm blob off the northwest was there then cycles away. For now, we have to deal with that area but could theoretically change

Yeah Bluewave is great, and perhaps my views are skewed do to living through a period where CPKs annual snowfall average was 11.125 lol (late 90s) and late 80s. Approx 15.5. However my point is more that yes we are stuck in an MJO phase spread due to the ocean temps, however why CAN'T that change with time? Western IO temps are exploding so that would Favor phases 1 and 2! So we can move to another great period, especially with gulf stream temps adding fuel. I will panic once it stops snowing in Norfolk Virginia/Delmarva lol. DC is a bad comparison cause through history they are always too far north for southern sliderz and too far south for northern stream miller Bs.

Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)? We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo. Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.

This snowless steak for NYC? I am not there now as in my lifetime other than this number of days without snow I have encountered 5 years with only one above average snowfall season streaks. Also the snowfall averages in the late 80s and especially the late 90s were lower than the last 5 years (late 90s was wayyy lower than the last 5 years). So while our snowfall averages will lower with time, I do not believe that this is our new normal/dramatic shift to "DC climo". Decadal RNA cycle is keeping the trough to our west the majority of the time now. Also our CPK snowfall averages are inflated by decadal PNA cycles like 2000 through 2018. Other than those cycles our snowfall averages are pretty low (I believe 55 through 69 was a PNA cycle as well as we have a snow blitz then like 2000 through 2018). However, it's cool that we disagree to an extent as discussions like this help us learn. I would be more concerned if 21/22 did not happen lol.

This is why I HATE strong El Ninos. 97/98 is a warning to the worst case scenario which is always on the table during these events.

Even for the CT coasties?

Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in.