EastonSN+

It has more to do with track than warmth. The last storm was cold enough everywhere, however it stayed south.

Still a better year than 97/98 lol. The MJO is doing exactly what it did in December. Unfortunately we may be looking at 2nd half of month or a bit later. Not ideal.

Also shows how timing/luck plays in. If the last storm was a little farther north, the first storm intensified a little earlier/deeper.

I know the MJO isn't everything, however we seem to be mirroring the last wave. Not sure when we will be back in 1/2 however we will likely have another colder spell. Maybe DC scores again!

The funniest part is we STILL could not stop a storm from turning to rain with that look lol.

Correct! Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak.

Curiously comparing this decade to the 1980s in terms of average annual snowfall. 1980s = 19.74. Above average snowfall year count = 0. 2020s = 19.6 (excluding this year of course). Above average snowfall winter count = 1. Bluewave mentioned volatility uptick in recent decades. So perhaps our snowfall remains on par, although distributed differently.

Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol).

I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10?

Expected. We wait till phase 1.

You can see how this is following the last wave. With the western IO temps expect another wave in phase 1.

This leads to what I was referring to before. The western IO water temps will once again have wave amplification in Phase 1 (see the MJO plot). Will be similar to what we just had in terms of MJO, albeit perhaps without the blocking.

Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough. This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately.

I mean strong Ninos typically have one period, we just failed to take advantage like 82/83 and 15/16.

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%. We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7. Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not.

Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2.

86 through 90 was another incredibly bad period. That average snowfall was spot on to our past few years. 15.85 average across those years in CPK I believe.

Unfortunately this area is all or nothing a lot of the time. The second half of the 1980s averaged 15.85 inches. The last 4 years of the 1990s averaged 11.125. That 25 to 30 average is heavily skewed by 2 periods, 1955 through 1969 (a LOT of KUs that period) as well as 2000 through 2018. Keep in mind CPK had only 5 winters in 30 years (70 through 99) with at least average snowfall. That 30 year average was 21.90667

My bad meant 13/14. If we are really heading through another 30 year period like 70 through 99, being a few degrees warmer would actually increase snowfall (except the 90s which were an inferno).

To me Panama City right on the Gulf Coast at 24 is really impressive given how warm the Gulf waters are.

At least we had 20/21 as a solidly above average snowfall winter. 21/22 was ok just below average. They have had ratter after ratter.

It's incredible how many all time records were set in this latest arctic blast (Allsnow referenced a few)! I will be honest I am happy to not have to worry about frozen pipes lol. Out of curiosity, what caused the Arctic outbreak of the late 70s? A lot of all time cold records were set those years.

EPS looks like it gets us to a better place quicker than the GEFS and GEPS.