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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models. All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning.
  2. EastonSN+
    Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey.
  3. EastonSN+
    Also, the GFS move SLIGHTLY north. It's not like it was a jump. Could be noise or a trend. Too early to tell.
  4. EastonSN+
    Eh, really depends on what the EURO does.
  5. EastonSN+
    Yeah CPK drops from 2.6 to 2.1.
  6. EastonSN+
    I know overly simplistic, however, not a bad idea omit the outliers and take a weighted average of the primary models. The outliers being ICON and RGEM.
  7. EastonSN+
    Wait, the confluence is gone?
  8. EastonSN+
    I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great! Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. The warm waters in the IO will help us here. Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track.
  9. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z
  10. EastonSN+
    Perfect
  11. EastonSN+
    The waters in the western IO are rising fast. Would be shocked if we did not get a spike in phases 1,2 and 3.
  12. EastonSN+
    It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.
  13. EastonSN+
    Eh, if this fails we'll get a good winter soon enough.
  14. EastonSN+
    To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol
  15. EastonSN+
    EURO will be the tie breaker.
  16. EastonSN+
    CMC
  17. EastonSN+
    Courtesy of MA forum.
  18. EastonSN+
    Great sign, courtesy of the NE forum.
  19. EastonSN+
    Yup like 2013/2014. PAC will always have greater importance than the Atlantic. Of course, if you are big storm hunting, you want them to align. The PAC is like the cold water faucet, the Atlantic, or blocking, the drain. Turn the cold water on high the close the drain....
  20. EastonSN+
    The two years over 20 inches were not surprisingly during our two cyclical extreme snowfall periods. The other three during our 30 year snow drought. The PAC is cyclical so I believe this proves that blocking alone will never help us, we need blocking PLUS a good background state. Look at the last two years, just a repeat of 70 through 99.
  21. EastonSN+
    Snowfall for CPK. Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern. 65/66 - 21.4 70/71 - 15.5 87/88 - 19.1 98/99 - 12.7 09/10 - 51.4
  22. EastonSN+
    Daily 14th. Obviously will not get pushed back or can-kicked at this point so last day posting these.
  23. EastonSN+
  24. EastonSN+
    We have to carve out 70 through 99 and and compare against 2020 onwards. 2000 through 2018 was more in line with 55 through 69 especially in terms of KUs. I am tracking the average annual CPK snowfall 70 through 99 against 2020 onwards. My thoughts are still +-2.5 inches.
  25. EastonSN+
    Do you think the war had anything to do with that massive drop in the late 30s early 40s?
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