EastonSN+

You can't assume that this is the case as it's not definitive yet. We could very well go back to a favorable pattern in the pack however a degree or two warmer than today. So instead of getting 25 in snow you'll get 26 or 27 and snow.

Yeah I am thinking the North Pole has a much greater positive temperature departure due to more land masses which would have more population centers creating heat than the southern hemisphere. That of course Plus all that ice down there where the North Pole is losing ice and has less land mass to house snow.

This may be an easy question but why the North Pole has such a high positive temperature departure compared to the South Pole which looks neutral. Easy answers would be more land mass in the northern hemisphere as well as more ice and snow and landmass in the South Pole while the North Pole eyes is melting. However the answer may not be that simple.

Great post by Benchmark.

Even with a cold air source that is inside the benchmark so Long Island coastal New Jersey and the City would likely be mostly rain. However could have been decent for inland areas although a fast mover.

Overall I would grade this winter a c-. Normally I would grade a winter with only 50% of average snowfall as a d, however, constant snow coverage which I still have as well as multiple events to track bumps up to a c-.

Yeah but at least there was a decent amount of doubt as all but two models showed Eastern New England getting the storm so It wasn't a total complete shock when it came in the last minute. Looking in retrospect we should have been going with all the other models as only two showed us in the bullseye. What made that one hard to swallow was the media and the national weather service going with the euro.

Another issue was the lack of a negative AO for the past event. This in addition to the AO being further north allowing the past storm to move west of us.

See THIS is how I view climate change. A 1.6 snowfall differential from 25 years ago.

Agreed. At least January 2015 the nam and the euro showed us getting hammered however all the other models showed Eastern New England. So when it failed in our area it was really only two models that failed. Every single model including the AI at one point should it's getting hit.

It has more to do with a negative five standard deviation AO than the pack. If we had a weaker AO and the same pack the storm would have gained latitude and we would have had a decent event. The fast pack would have hindered the epic slow moving bombs, however we would have had a good four to eight six to twelve event with the same pack and a week or AO.

It cost me $90 every time they plow my driveway when it's over 3 inches. I look at saving the $90 as compensation for missing the upcoming storm.

We are probably going to get annihilated with an epic winter next year and all this will be forgotten. Perhaps our 1978, or 94, or 96.

I mean look at the strength of this block.

What's funny is the GFS was the only model that did not fall for the big solution and has been the most consistent compared to the other models.

Yeah it goes back to the fact that 2000 through 2018 was like 55 through 69 where we had blocking in the right places and a dominant PNA ridge or EPO. This probably happened a lot 1970 through 1999 (I know I have stated this at exhaustion LOL).

I mean we all still know we will be checking every run of the major models for the next couple days LOL

This is the block right now see how far north and east it is. If this were further west and further south we would have had snow. This will be the block Thursday. See how far south it is and how strong it is. If this were a little weaker or a little further north we would have had snow. You could see the kicker storm on this depiction too. So yes it's too strong and negative 5 and too far south. Weaker or little North with this strength and we would have snowed.

If the AO was a -3 instead of a - 5 we would have seen at least some decent snow. The strength of the AO would not let the storm gain latitude. Because of this we are waiting for a phase to bring this from the coast in with the kicker out west it wasn't going to happen.

I was hoping I would be incorrect. Maybe I still will but.

We've entered a new regime from 2000 to 2018 which mirrored 1955 through 1969. The regime will likely match 1970 through 1999. It will be a couple degrees warmer, which may actually help us in the snowfall department as it'll be more moisture and stronger storms if the water temperature theory holds. Remember five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Central Park's average in that time was a little over 20 inches. We had cutter suppressed cutter suppressed which we had this year. Not sure anyone can say definitively if global warming has turned a switch and it can never go back or if this is a warmer version of exactly what happened in the past. For posters have only seen 2000 through 2018 yes this looks like Armageddon. However those of us who lived through 1970 through 1999 or at least a portion of that period this is not shocking at all.

Yeah my recollection starts around 1983 I was extremely small but I remember the snow piles being massive.

We have time for it to turn around and nobody knows the future, however, taking the seasonal trend into consideration which I know every event is its own entity and the past doesn't necessarily guarantee the future, however, the storm track has favored the Delmarva all season. Basically if I were a gambling Man I would put the over-under for Central Park at 4 inches for this event. I would bet the under.

Yeah it is mind-boggling to think Central Park had five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Imagine what this board is going to do 10 years from now when we've had only one above every snowfall season in that time frame lol. To me it's just reliving my childhood.

I tend to disagree here. I'm tracking the snowfall average for Central Park for 1970 through 1999 and we are about 5 and 1/2 in inches below that 30-year average, however we have seen this year that we are nowhere close to being too warm to snow. Could we be two to three inches less than that 30 year average sure, however we are still seeing the same cutter suppressed pattern of that time period with cold air. Heck we just saw 2000 through 2018 mirror 1955 through 1969. We shall see I'll keep tracking.