EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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DC always had issues as they are too far north for SE sliders and too far south for many Miller Bs. How much warmer can ocean temps realistically get to (obviously boiling but that would be a much much graver situation lol). Remember coastal NC just had a good snowfall event too. That is important considering water temps.
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This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18). I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered.
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This is where my thoughts diverge from some. I believe GW is linear, with repeated patterns from the past reoccurring with higher temps. I do not subscribe to outright regime shifts where patterns from the past can no longer exist. Caveat MAY be large urban areas where HIA plays a larger role in EC, especially early/late season. However, I need more time/seasons to digest. Please keep in mind, I grew up in the 85 through 99 years where snowfall seemed next impossible (even wearing short sleeve shirts one January in the early 90s). Therefore, the last two years are not a shock to my system, but rather a familiar pattern that I lived through.
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Thanks Don! The decline in 1 to 3 coupled with the increase of 6+ really shows the effects of increased moisture/dynamics resulting from temps. Do you happen to have 1890 through 1960?
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To be fair, a lot of snow events in the 70 through 99 era were 20 to 25 degrees with snow. Those events would still be snow today, and likely higher amounts due to higher moisture content.
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Completely agree. This is likely why KU events, outside of 55-60 and 00 through 18 are typically hard to come by.
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I do agree, however, I think there is a difference between a trough out west and what we have experienced the last two years. Those troughs were to BAJA and that's impossible to overcome (unless you have a PV press like wx orhman pointed out happened in December 2002). If you have a moderate trough blocking can still overcome. Also, the last blocking episode failed in a different way, the middle Atlantic received the snow. Troughing to Baja means cutter.
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Daily for the 14. Still no can kick.
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Yeah that looks similar.
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2000 through 2018 skewed expectations. 70 through 99 showed how these setups can fail/give us light to moderate snow.
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Before the 14th so would be a bonus if worked out.
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Only received 7 here. Unlike NEMO, the heaviest stayed east of the CT river.
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At least our area received a 6 to 12 event. The Philly area was expecting that and received nothing.
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Daily 14th post. Safe to say it's not getting pushed back or can kicked.
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Isn't that what we want? Less suppression.
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You know we've had it rough when southeast NJ is beating CPK.
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Unfortunately this happened a lot in the past (only producing moderate or minor events).
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That was the first time CPK breached 20 inches in four years. Unfortunately it was followed up by a 12.6 winter. In total part of a 10 year stretch of below average snowfall winters.
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Just looking at this again, CPK had 7 30+ snowfall winters from 55 through 69. More similarities between that period and 00 through 18.
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Daily ensembles for the 14th
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The hugger and the clippers have come back. There actually was a clipper a couple weeks ago.
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I think CPK getting to 50 inches is tough to do historically so perhaps not a great benchmark. From 1970 through 1999 CPK reached 50 inches 3 times, ironically 2 in the warmest period of the three (1990 through 1999). In fact in that 30 year period, only 3 years total went above 30 inches. By contrast, CPK went above 30 inches 13 times since 2000! In summation, it will be hard to determine who is right for the foreseeable future, since we are likely within another low snowfall period. We shall see.
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DC only needs 6 inches to reach average. That would add to it.
