EastonSN+

If it does end up as depicted by the Euro congrats Delmarva. I have to think that this may be their snowiest year in history if this comes through.

0.75 today. 15.3 STD

0.75 today. 15.3 STD

The issue for me is not that we don't have enough time to trend back, as it is still very close, it's more the fast flow that has not relented all year and we are finally seeing the effects. If this was 2011 I wouldn't worry at all. Basically the SE ridge that is unbeatable and pumped up this storm suddenly becomes weak. Brooklyn WX was likely correct in saying it's not the SE ridge flexing it's nothing more than an amplifying system pumping up heights not a super ridge that apparently is doing nothing now.

Yeah bad afternoon for sure.

The low pressure was further east this run.

Hoping Central Park gets at least a half an inch.

AI also.

That was my take away from this run, as it moved East/captured later

Not good if that's the case he's usually spot on.

It was not a bad take as it was a later capture and therefore was deceiving initially as it wasn't as good as the previous run.

Did Forky provide an opinion yet?

Was captured a bit later on the icon so I was able to move a bit further east before turning North also when it was captured the precipitation shield expanded West (watered down 2013). Positive to see we still got a hit but negative to see it did move with the other guidance East or later capture. Regardless of what the GFS shows it's going to be interesting to see the 18z euro

I have no idea. I'm hoping Brooklyn WX jumps in this thread and puts a positive post up. Have to admit this was extremely deflating. I thought the southeast ridge was unbeatable.

It's Southeast ridge versus fast flow in this scenario.

I posted a lot earlier that I feared that this would miss us. Seeing the CMC move drastically East since 0z is also concerning.

I hope this ends up being the Southeastern most outlier but looking at the ensembles that's not the case.

Did not like seeing the individual members of the eps. At least nine of the 25 members show that worst case scenario of the Delmarva capen Islands. 5 give us the foot plus scenario. 4 give us a 6 to 12 scenario. 5 are complete misses.

You're in the best spot for this one. Central Jersey as well basically like all season.

From the New England forum.

It could be an over-correction however we have to watch that kicker out west it was further east this run.

It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year.

Amendment. EURO is now the southeast outlier. Wish it was any other model. Still gives 1 to 3.

Kicker Storm out West was a bit east.