EastonSN+

Phase 3 is cold and it takes over 15 days to get into mid phase 3. Factor in a 5 day lag and you have a few extra days remaining in 3. Blocking seems more sustainable. MA is favored more sure, however we can still get moderate events. This is clearly a 1980s setup.

Daily Feb. 14 post. All similar.

Borrowed from the MA forum. Cold will not be the issue at all unless a storm over amplifiers. Unlikely as Bluewave pointed out with the Pacific. As Don noted a good shot at moderate events.

It's plenty cold enough for the MA. The southeast would need timing with that look.

This is EXACTLY what we witnessed 70 through 99. I mentioned probably 100 times. Cold and dry warm and wet over and over. SE slider or wound up cutter or Hugger. We thought the hugger was "extinct" (as well as the clipper), yet now they are back. History just repeats itself. I was thinking the ocean temps would hinder a repeat of that time period, and keep a semi permanent SE ridge to allow all those suppressed snowstorms to get us, however it's just the same. I really do feel good for the MA and SE though. While we wait and wait, they are still cashing in.

The warming waters in the IO are helping us here

This was my first foot plus storm since 1983 (had 11.5 in March 93 superstorm).

Yeah this is prime for the Middle Atlantic and perhaps southeast.

That's the 1970 through 1999 period for yah. We were way too spoiled in 00 through 18 that we thought all blocking would produce. The MA cashing in, like January, happened more often. I guess the miss alignment with the Pacific helps south of us while we need the Pacific to help storms gain latitude.

Still in track for 14th.

Talk about un consolidated polar vortex

331 feet. NYC has a double whammy. On the water and major UHW.

Lol I just realized Raleigh has been out performing CPK lately in terms of snowfall as a % of average.

Yeah my sister lives in Cary NC and hates snow so remember it well. We are entering a multi year pattern where they can rack up again.

January so colder, however the NC coastal areas can still do good....2022

Raleigh NC had a February snowstorm recently Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Raleigh Inches Date Centi­metres 1.5 January 21, 2022 3.8 1.6 January 28, 2021 4.1 2.5 February 20, 2020 6.4 trace November 12, 2019 + trace 7.0 December 09, 2018 17.8 0.5 January 07, 2017 1.3 1.2 January 22, 2016 3.0 3.2 February 26, 2015 8.1 3.3 February 12, 2014 8.4 0.7 February 16, 2013 + 1.8 0.9 February 19, 2012 2.3 0.4 February 10, 2011 1.0 6.7 December 26, 2010 17.0 hes Date Centi­metres 3.5 January 20, 2009 8.9 0.5 January 19, 2008 1.3 1.0 January 18, 2007 2.5 trace November 21, 2006 + trace 0.7 January 19, 2005 1.8 4.5 February 27, 2004 11.4 2.3 January 23, 2003 5.8 6.5 January 03, 2002 16.5 0.3 February 22, 2001 0.8 17.9 January 25, 2000 45.5 trace December 25, 1999 + trace 2.0 January 19, 1998 5.1 0.4 January 11, 1997 1.0 5.6 February 16, 1996 14.2 1.0 February 07, 1995 2.5 0.6 February 02, 1994 1.5 2.6 December 23, 1993 6.6 trace December 27, 1992 + trace trace November 09, 1991 + trace trace December 27, 1990 + trace 5.8 February 18, 1989 14.7 7.1 January 07, 1988 18.0 5.2 February 27, 1987 13.2 0.7 February 14, 1986 1.8 2.4 January 28, 1985 6.1 6.9 February 06, 1984 17.5 7.3 March 24, 1983 18.5 5.0 January 14, 1982 12.7 2.6 January 30, 1981 6.6 9.0 March 02, 1980 22.9 10.3 February 18, 1979 26.2 3.2 February 22, 1978 + 8.1 1.8 January 24, 1977 4.6 0.4 January 17, 1976 1.0 2.6 November 23, 1975 6.6 2.9 March 25, 1974 7.4 5.7 January 08, 1973 14.5 2.6 March 25, 1972 6.6 5.2 March 26, 1971 13.2 1.0 January 23, 1970 + 2.5 9.3 March 01, 1969 23.6 1.4 January 25, 1968 3.6 9.1 February 09, 1967 23.1 7.6 January 26, 1966 19.3 3.8 January 30, 1965 9.7 1.0 February 28, 1964 + 2.5 6.9 February 26, 1963 17.5 5.0 January 10, 1962 12.7 1.2 February 03, 1961 + 3.0 6.9 March 09, 1960 17.5 1.7 January 08, 1959 4.3 9.1 December 11, 1958 23.1 1.0 December 11, 1957 2.5 2.0 January 23, 1956 5.1 9.0 January 19, 1955 22.9 4.1 January 23, 1954 10.4 0.6 November 06, 1953 1.5 3.5 February 26, 1952 8.9 1.2 February 09, 1951 3.0 0.3 December 28, 1950 0.8 trace December 15, 1949 + trace 9.9 February 10, 1948 25.1 2.0 March 27, 1947 5.1 4.0 January 17, 1946 10.2 2.9 December 15, 1945 7.4

Depends on intensity, timing (night).

Unfortunately we have moved back to a 1970 through 1999, particularly 85 through 95 pattern which was notoriously "cold and dry (congrats MA) warm and wet (big cutter)" year after year. Those years the SE ridge only flexed during cutters of course. It failed us and the MA cashed in (especially 87). So, we cannot expect it to help much now. That being said, like Bluewave stated, one could nudge north to hit us. A warmer climate may help us here.

We need the SE ridge to flex. Feel good for Raleigh, Delmarva, Norfolk and perhaps DC through Philly. Good pattern for something like this again but perhaps a bit further south.

Yeah we need the SE ridge to flex a bit. However great opportunity for DC, Baltimore and maybe Philly to have an above average snowfall winter.

For the 14the again. Target date has not been pushed back so far. EPS the Middle ground for blocking.

Great point. 55 through 69 matches 2000 through 2018 in terms of snowfall. 75 through 85 were cold so that could account.

Thanks for this, Is it known what slowed the warming from 1958 to 1999? Seems like an outlier. Population and pollution were increasing at a steady rate during this period (as well as natural warming). Population has increased since, however, so have measured to reduce emissions and other pollutants. Solar, volcanic activity, other?

Thanks Don, I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example.

From yesterday, however clearly shows blocking settings up