EastonSN+

I am a Yankees fan but I would go with METS. Anytime you have an owner with those resources you can win a WS any year. Just look at Texas last year. Mostly money driven. Mets can turn that around in a year or two. So, METS.

Yeah, strong El Ninos are warm to say the least.

Yeah, 97/98 had really good blocking and we experienced nothing but rain from perfect storm tracks.

Be careful not to get sick, feels warm now but if it was this temperature in July you would feel extremely cold and for good reason.

Exactly! Cary North Carolina (Raleigh area) had a snow event a couple years ago and the Delmarva had a great winter by their standards as well. I think Norfolk did really well too. As you stated they are well south and considerably warmer. If they can snow so can we. A couple years in the 70s and the year 1987 were extremely cold and suppressed. A SE ridge may help in reducing suppression in a repeat of those years. We just don't know yet. As long as we see the south and mid Atlantic see snow, we have time. DC is an odd area as they always were too far south for northern stream system redevelopment and too far north for SE sliders. They always needed everything to line up and now that they are a couple degrees warmer it's that much harder.

Yup. Really 1970 through 1999 was dreadful. It will make the next 1993/1994, 1995/1996 that much more enjoyable.

I would include 2000 through 2018 as the extreme snowy period. You could be right about a new regime, however for me personally I need to see this stretch eclipse at least the 15 year period of 85 through 99 where we only experienced 2 above normal and 1 normal snowfall season. Excluding this year, we have experienced 1 above average snowfall winter in 5 years so sort of on pace....

Yup. Trying to investigate the horrid 1970 through 1999 stretch and it looks like the late 80s through the mid 90s had a predominantly hostile PAC.

Thanks! 77/78 had two monster snowstorms - was the El nino this strong? Would give us more hope if it was.

Wiki "The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1990–95 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[141][142][unreliable source?][143] An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.[144] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching"."[145]

I think this must of happened multiple times 1970 through 1999.

Correct, and I for one was so excited to get out of the la Nina phase that I ignored the fact that strong El ninos are just as bad. I am just hoping we can keep next year's la Nina weak at this point.

Unfortunately we have a strong El nino acting like a strong El nino. Worst for snow - moderate and strong la Ninas, strong El ninos. Kind of what we have seen last 3 years. What we need weak to moderate El nino or weak la Nina. Have to monitor next year la Nina for if it's moderate to strong, will likely be another below average snowfall winter. I will have to go back, however 1985 through 1999 only had 2 above average snowfall winters in 15 years. 1997/98 was a super El nino. Curious to see the other 12 below average snowfall winters.

I think we can survive a moderate/minor RNA in January, especially out northern suburbs. Agreed strong RNAs never have worked for us (especially December). Posted December 1888 (courtesy of Don) which overwhelm our blocking like the last 2 Decembers. Unfortunately PAC always trumps blocking/Atlantic.

It would have been pretty rare for last year to work out. 2002 worked out per ORH wxman due to the huge vortex. In retrospect knowing this we should or have been that disappointed. Still not fun to have the torch other than savings.

Merry Christmas and Happy holidays!

I know strong El Ninos can have epic snowstorms but not really a fan in general.

Sorry WxUSAF I am not trying to start a forum war on Christmas Eve but thought this was hilarious and wanted to share in good cheer. Its funny how each forum has its own personality. Happy Holidays.

Thanks again. What's interesting is the November comparison shows roughly the same thing as December, everything was slightly west in 1997 compared to this year (likely why the central area of the country is the focus of the warmth this year). Perhaps that will lead to a better outcome than 97/98? This year can't be any worse than that year lol. 2015 looked nothing like this year.

That had to be wayyy north. We had nothing near the coast here.

Thanks for this. Yeah in reality, December 1997 was decent for a strong El nino background state temps wise (December). Comparing the maps (which I find fun lol), the difference seems to be the trough off the west coast is slightly west of this year. Also, this year most of the PV is on the other side of the globe, in 1997 it looks as though a piece of the PV is over Alaska, could have cooled that PAC air flow a bit that year with the connection due north. Finally the Poler vortex looks consolidated in the 1997 map vs this year which looks perturbed. Do you have the same map for November 1997 as well compared to this November? Actually a little snow too, I feel that December 2015 may be a closer match from an H5 perspective, would you happen to have the same map for 2015? Snow for 1997....

I personally go off of experience and living through the 80s/90s as well as the 2000s. I have vivid memories of the late 80s and 90s and the experience was just like the last 5 winters for me. Why do the last 5 winters have to be a new reality when we have seen these setups and frequencies in the past? In my opinion we have a long period of time to wait and collect data until we can know the answer. Maybe a climatologist can publish and in depth paper on the differences between that 30 year period and the last 5 years. Also, 1955 through 1969 compared to 2000 through 2018. In GUESSING, I would have to think that they would match up relatively well (and so nobody thinks I do not believe it's getting warmer out, baseline temperatures adjusted up for both periods by whatever the number is). In the meantime there will always be disagreements between the audience members, which is healthy and leads to debates and knowledge growth. My stance is per the above based on experience, and I am open to change as time goes by. At the current time, living through both periods, I am not at the point yet where I can agree we have past a point where we have shifted to new pattern regimes.

Last year was due to (b) below, a deep west coast trough. A phenomenal year for California though as the reservoirs and snow pack increases were tremendous! This year is due to (a) below. Another relatively high percentage warm setup for us. 2000 through 2018 we saw (c) ex. 13/14, 14/15 and (d) 02/03 a lot. We are in (and it makes me cringe) a 1970s through 1990s streak of winters which unfortunately happen a higher percentage of the time. The good news is we had good winters sprinkled in like 77/78, 93/94 and 95/96 in that 30 year period. In the last 5 years we had 21/22 as a really good winter sprinkled in.

For those who want to see how a vortex off the west Coast can and has (now and in the past) flood Canada with PAC air, run the loop of the latest EPS. In the image below, see that deep blue, that spin is rapidly pushing warm PAC air into Canada (like a river from SW to NE). A problem with stronger El ninos. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a