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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    Why can't it cool, or another area of the Pacific warm to offset? Or the western IO warm up faster to keep forcing there (MJO phases 1 and 2)? We need more years/time to officially declare this as definitive going forward imo. Again we can agree to disagree that's fine.
  2. EastonSN+
    This snowless steak for NYC? I am not there now as in my lifetime other than this number of days without snow I have encountered 5 years with only one above average snowfall season streaks. Also the snowfall averages in the late 80s and especially the late 90s were lower than the last 5 years (late 90s was wayyy lower than the last 5 years). So while our snowfall averages will lower with time, I do not believe that this is our new normal/dramatic shift to "DC climo". Decadal RNA cycle is keeping the trough to our west the majority of the time now. Also our CPK snowfall averages are inflated by decadal PNA cycles like 2000 through 2018. Other than those cycles our snowfall averages are pretty low (I believe 55 through 69 was a PNA cycle as well as we have a snow blitz then like 2000 through 2018). However, it's cool that we disagree to an extent as discussions like this help us learn. I would be more concerned if 21/22 did not happen lol.
  3. EastonSN+
    This is why I HATE strong El Ninos. 97/98 is a warning to the worst case scenario which is always on the table during these events.
  4. EastonSN+
    Even for the CT coasties?
  5. EastonSN+
    Decadal RNA pattern we are currently in.
  6. EastonSN+
    Does not line up with Upton too well.
  7. EastonSN+
    That is almost exactly what NWS is showing for the CT coast! 1 to 2 right along the immediate shore and 3 to 7 just inland even below the Merritt Parkway.
  8. EastonSN+
    I think Forky had a claim that NAM always has at least one crush job run that is inevitably incorrect
  9. EastonSN+
    Lol coastal CT
  10. EastonSN+
    Nice snow shower passing through!
  11. EastonSN+
    Will be interesting to see the EPS. Especially for the burbs.
  12. EastonSN+
    I think we are generally on the same page, difference is I see this current 5 year stretch as we are in a decadal RNA regime with a global warming background raising our temps by say whatever the current global departure is. 2000 through 2018 with a decadal PNA would still work. Also, 1996 where we were snowing at 18 degrees may be 21 degrees and snowing. Yes, we will lose our 33 and snow from 1972, but the blizzard of 1978 would still be snow IMO and maybe more given the added moisture. Where my view differs than some is I do not think our overall weather structure changed i.e. I do not think we are going to be in a mostly static RNA from here on our. I believe the same patterns persist just increasingly warmer.
  13. EastonSN+
    Right if it was frigid and 20 degrees with suppression, we may be 22 now cause of GW and on the northern edge of the snowfall (think SE ridge help).
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah, GFS taken verbatim the CT coast never flips to mix, albeit an above freezing snowfall with low ratios.
  15. EastonSN+
    Borrowed again.
  16. EastonSN+
    Could work out a well, all those suppressed snowstorms of the past may be monster hits now. Also the records we have now are likely a combination of a normal warm pattern (decadal RNA now) and GW. If we get back into a general cooler pattern we can be in decent shape. For me as long as we keep seeing NC, Virginia and the Delmarva get snowstorms like they have been over the past few years we have tread on the tires.
  17. EastonSN+
    Again borrowed from the NE forum. Enjoy
  18. EastonSN+
    Completely agree. Our second window (this weekend was the first), then as Bluewave alluded to, phase 8 potential for February. All in all though this winter so far has been textbook strong El nino.
  19. EastonSN+
    The cutter is a good thing, helps build/strengthen the NAO block.
  20. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the NE forum (I am technically coastal CT). Not New York but you see some of LI and Hudson river. 10 to 1 so you know the drill about lower ratios.
  21. EastonSN+
    Yeah the northern areas of this sub forum will do good. The 6z euro came in a tad colder per NE forum.
  22. EastonSN+
    That look like a really good call.
  23. EastonSN+
    It's too bad this next storm was JUST too far north, otherwise CPK had a good shot at an above average snowfall winter. Winter Storm Chuck keeps mentioning we are in a decadal RNA pattern. Until that breaks we will need to keep relying on late Jan, February and March to produce. I know Chuck stated decadal, however I think it usually lasts 2 to 3 decades (1970 through 1999), while PNA 1 to 2 decades (2000 through 2018).
  24. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from NY forum
  25. EastonSN+
    Borrowed from the MA forum
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