EastonSN+

It did move NE a bit.

12z for reference

Your in the Forky camp.

I love how they accounted for the inevitable under measurement for CPB with the blue stripe.

Lol

Actually it was better west and east. Basically just expanded.

Yikes.

Does anyone have the gefs?

Updated map

Wsw for Fairfield County CT. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179-260900- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0004.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.251226T2100Z-251227T1800Z/ Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)- Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 119 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. &&

I need it to stop here. Mix line getting closer.

I am in SWCT so that puts me in trouble as well.

From NE forum. Great explanation on bandingeven though for up here.

My problem with Forky is not his skill but his communication. Why cant he just state what he thinks is going to happen. Will Brooklyn see 2 inches before a lot of sleet? Will the bronx be mostly snow with CPK in 4 inches before the change? Just stating "NAM sniffs out warm layer" and "you will get a lot of sleet" to MJO is not that helpful. Don does a great Job in articulating his thoughts. Wish Forky would do the same.

RRFS from the NE forum.

Yeah both nudges NE while the NAM moved SW. Perhaps a convergence. Lets see if the EURO and GFS hold.

RGEM. Yes a bit NE of previous run

Maybe he meant as the CURRENT NAM depicts. However it is still the northern most model.

Forky is saying a lot of sleet for NYC. Is is a likely scenario?

The Nam came south by a lot

Merry Christmas all

Merry Christmas all

Looking at the GEFS, although the precip shield expanded NE it was a touch colder with a better high position.