EastonSN+

GFS is a touch south

Decent snow now temps dropped to 34.3 in Easton.

The old days have been back since 2018. 2019 till now is a reflection of 1970 through 1999. Although 25 of the 30 winters had below average snowfall we did get great snowstorms in 1978, 1983, 1993, 1994 and 1996.

35 and light snow. Schools canceled.

IMO it already has lol

Hey Don I may be mistaken however did this storm occur during a slightly negative PNA? January 27/28 2004.

I think 2003/2004 had 2 systems well north of us redevelopment just south with a similar NW to SE snowfall distribution.

At least good for energy savings.

Just looking at those pics it looks like non stop blocked (neg NAO) vs. Central ridge. Pattern stuck.

If the NAO is as strong as predicted, it would favor southern areas. The boxing day blizzard also hit NC hard.

Its all cyclical. You will get another snowfall bonanza across multiple seasons again. My largest snowfall drought lasted 30 years before 2000 so I am not too hopefull for anytime soon IMBY lol.

As usual great work and thanks again. Central park and LGA amounts stick out like a sore thumb lol.

NOT hinting that this will happen, however, the setup COULD yield a storm like this. The storm tries to cut through New England however the blocking forces the storm just south.

Definitely good trends overnight with a stronger NAO block. The operational models also hint at a coastal, albeit for areas south of us right now.

Thanks, do we have statistics on how much the frequency has increased since 2007? Was there another "spike" in the past (if it was even tracked)?

Thanks so this shows a positive PNA/east based EPO with an east based NAO which historically would have always worked and not linked up with a ridge. Goes to show the importance of the PNA region which is flipped now. I bet think "linking" always occured.

Thanks Don. I feel that the urban heat island affect has gotten out of hand and unfortunately, central park's temperatures are no longer relevant as a representation of the northeast tri state corridor. Seeing 37 while all other areas were 34 is insane. Would white plains or newark be a better benchmark moving forward? I mean, literally one mile away from central park was far colder and received more snow. North south east and west. If we keep using Central Park it will just keep getting worse and will misrepresent the entire area moving forward. Perhaps we can still use Central Park, but adjust the temperature down. However, this may be a worse idea

So if anyone knows, what exactly is the below? I do not see a true -NAO but rather a large east coast ridge facilitated by a deep RNA. To me this is NOT a scary "SE ridge linking up to a negative NAO". I am sure this has happened MANY times in the past. Not sure how the rest of the winter shaped up in the past. A good deteriming factor of whether or not it is a true neg nao would be if it retrogrades to a neg AO or not.

This is a disappointing front load if that's the case.

I should have said IMBY which is SW CT. Central park also, which only received 1.4 inches of snow before turning to rain (this year they had a grossly undermeasured 2.9 inches AND a runaway HEI (they were 37 at the onset while the central Jersey coast had 34 lol)). To me it was the most disappointing BECAUSE it was historically cold and ended up with a rain storm in the middle of single digit temps before and after storm lol.

Up here we ended up with above average snowfall and some snow from the "bust" so actually a decent year IMBY.

IF IF it happened that way, at least this December was better snowfall wise than 1989 lol. That year had a heartbreaking snow to rain storm in the middle of one of the coldest Decembers in history. 1989/1990 was probably the most disappointing in my lifetime.