EastonSN+

Lol maybe they know your lurking and want to mess with you.

AO

GEFS is far more accurate regarding the MJO.

Completely agree. I have been actively comparing 2020 onwards to 1970 through 1999 and until now we are actually ahead of 1970 through 1976 for snowfall and above average snowfall winters. Also that period had 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, which was pretty bad living through it like I did (80s onwards). I distinctly remember the patterns were cold dry/warm wet for the majority of the winters (outside of the furnaces of the late 80s/early and lat 90s and the cold and dry early and mid 80s). So far outside of 2020/2021 we have seen either the furnace or cold and dry with the same overall storm track of the 1970 through 1990s. The similarities between 1955 and 1969 and 2000 through 2018 are also incredible. So like you stated, given that the last snowfall drought was a whopping 30 years we will need to wait until the mid 1930s to see if we have fared worse that that period. I would also like to leave the door open for INCREASED snowfall if the waters around the MJO phase 8 region also warm and allow for better storm tracks/increased warmth leading to larger snowstorms and less suppression. Some positive observations are: Still getting snow to the gulf Still getting benchmark storm tracks Still getting late season snow (May a couple of years ago) Still getting multiple below average temperature winter months The return of the clipper. The return of non-se ridge linking NAOs The hindrance of continuous phass 3 through 6 due to warm water pac waters The recent negatives are lower benchmark tracks and general increased global temps. Will be interesting to say the least.

Even if CPK were to go snowless the remainder of the winter, this decade would still be ahead of the first 6 winters of the 1970s wrt average annual snow totals and number of above average snowfall winters.

We will have one last window the 2nd week of March.

Last window still looking like the 2nd week of March

Last window will be approx 2nd week of March. Have to get CPK to average snowfall at that point hopefully.

Hoping CPK can record a couple of inches. I am personally pulling for CPK to reach average would be a shame not to with all the cold (conscious we are ina dry spell).

PNA seems to be rising towards the end of the run as well, perhaps in response to the MJO wave. AO is variable.

Should be innphase 8 by the 2nd week of March hopefully for one last good snow stretch.

Should be in phase 8 by the second week of March. Could go out with one last good period.

Wish it were a bit colder and SW for CT.

This SHOULD get us back to phase 8 by the 2nd week of March. Perhaps we get one last good window.

Lol maybe it starts here

Central PA will get back to the glory years snowfall wise at some point.

We have two opportunities. One as we traverse through phase 3 although may favor northern areas and one as we get back to 8 about the second week of March. Our area is slightly above average snowfall ready however would be disappointing for CPK to be under.

Looks like the PNA starting to improve at the end of the run. Likely a bit early as we would be in phase 6 however this should start to take form during the first week of March. This is NOT too late for snowfall for NYC.

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

Will probably end up as mix here in SW CT.