EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Right, but that may increase snowfall in larger storms that are cold enough. Perhaps less storms but more snow and less suppression (SE ridge). Too early to tell. -
I mean, 2000 through 2018 was warmer than 55 through 69 so who knows.
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How do we know that this will result in less snowfall? I.e. what if we lose the marginal events, but gain additional snowfall in larger events? What if the storms that hit the MA in the past hit us now? I do not think there is any definitive evidence that our average annual snowfall will be less. We are entering another terrible stretch between great stretches like 55 through 69 and 00 through 18, so it's magnified. Remember CPKs average annual snowfall from 70 through 99 was only around 21 inches.
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Take a look at the plot and connect to START. Like train tracks.
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Same exact thing happened with the last wave with 8. As long as we go through 1,2 and 3 we will have our shot, ans perhaps we will do a little better than the last stretch.
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Firing up in phase 1 again as expected (Nittany - understood it's not the only driver). AO going slightly negative, NAO neutral (same with PNA).
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This happened all year long in 97/98. Repetitive perfect benchmark storm tracks and nothing but heavy rain. People who were not old enough in 97/98 are getting the full experience now. Also, although it may be happening more often, we had perfect storm tracks with rain in the 70s, 80s and 90s outside of 97/98 as well. Perhaps I am not as worried since I lived through this before, however I am confident we will get into another 1955 - 1969, 2000 - 2018 period again. Problem is, the lull periods tend to be much longer than the snowy periods. I just hope it's not 30 years like 1970 through 1999 lol.
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Delaware is beating most of us this year.
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Seems like years where it repetitively snows on the Delmarva it won't here.
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Borrowed from the MA forum. If it refuses to snow here let's root for NC!
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The good news is this is not as bad as 97/98 where there was no hope (perfect benchmark rainstorms). This February has a better shot IMO.
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This is the one I was referring to in 2022.
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Here was one.
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Your thinking of the 2021 storm. The storm I am referring to missed us south. In fact it was south of DC. Hammered south and central Virginia through Norfolk and the Delmarva.
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The Jan 25/26 storm looks almost identical to the MA storm 2 years ago!
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13.83
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86 through 90, 15.34. Following year 24.9. 97 through 01, 15.90. Following year 3.5.
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Hi Don, Looking at some of the worst 5 year runs in terms of snowfall to compare to the last 5 years INCLUDING THIS YEAR in an assumption that CPK is shut out, even if unlikely. I focused on 1928 through 1932 today. Interesting comparison: 1928 through 1932 avg - 11.76 2020 through 2024 avg - 13.18 1933 ended up with 27. Hopefully next year yields the same results.
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If you have a deep -EPO and a slight RNA, then we could be frigid. Especially if the RNA is not static (i.e. the winter averages RNA however you have PNA spikes). Would be good to see a PNA chart from that year.
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I think CPK had 5.5 What was crazy was the humidity that month.
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Yeah it was at night temps started out around 40 then the heavy precip cooled and ended up with 4 IMBY
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Completely agree. We scored a moderate event in February 2018 in a sea of 50 to 70 degree warmth all month. If we can get a moderate event then, why not now.
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Thanks again Don, I have always been interested in the two periods given both were very snowy periods, each with numerous KUs. They always stood out from 1970 to 1999 and 2019 through now. I hope a study is published explaining each, proving/disproving any correlation between the periods (most likely each period was dominated by blocking).
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Thanks as always Don, I find it interesting that our better years fall into the two highly snowy periods of 1955 through 1969 as well as 2000 through 2018. Is there an apparent cause for these periods? I believe per the MA forum that 2000 through 2018 was a positive PNA regime as compared to the RNA regime previously and currently. Do you know if 1955 through 1969 had a predominant PNA as well?
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Just for discussion purposes (not necessarily my thoughts about the ultimate outcome), the 2nd least amount of snowfall for CPK was 3.8 in 1918/1919. Can this winter take 2nd place?
