EastonSN+

The delayed schools again for the 100th time this year. Didn't measure yet

I mean it's not a BAD winter cause of multiple events to track and snow cover. Plus 1/3 of seasonal average so far.

Go figure we finally get a winter where all 4 months may be below normal temps (at least three and maybe March) and the deep South and mid Atlantic reap the benefits.

The trough will remain in the east through the first week of March, however like last time in January the trough is too far East. Hopefully things look different tomorrow.

I do think the deep South or the southeast are going to cash in on another snow storm. Epic year for the Delmarva and the south.

Cold and dry.....

Yes it is. Don't know if you remember but a couple years ago and the New England forum I mentioned that my measurement in my yard is always low compared to my surroundings. I take three measurements one in the woods, and two in the cleared area of my yard and take the average. I do not clear snow I just take snow depth. What is odd is when I lived in Norwalk Connecticut pre-2015 I seem to almost always have the highest snow total. Not sure why this happens. Last time I had the most in the area was an overrunning event in January 2015 with 7. To get to my house you do have to go up a long sloped Hill. Not steeped, just long and it's facing south so I don't know if that has anything to do with it. I guess if there was a northerly wind I would be down sloped but slightly. It's wooded so I don't know why my measurements are usually low.

Hello. STD? For YTD I have 12.75 (4 for the last storm)

If I'm not mistaken I think the rule was that a negative AO benefits the Middle Atlantic in the Southeast while the nao benefits us. This would make sense as the nao never really went negative but the AO is going greatly negative hence why the Mid-Atlantic is benefiting. Kind of cut and dry.

Lol would be fitting for Ocean City Maryland to get hit again. Like a magnet.

Not 100% but think so.

Best clippers of all time are 1978 and I believe it was 2005. Both clippers ended up as blizzards.

How can we say that for certain when it's only been 6 years since they last heavily above average snowfall year of 2017 2018? The 2000 through 2018 time frame had the average above 30 inches. It was inevitably going to drop like 1970. I am not saying long-term we are not one to three inches less per year then say a 50-year average, however I am saying that a light switch did not occur in 2019. We will see another period like 1955 through 1969 or 2000 2018 again likely but not for a while. It may be warmer but it will be above average snowfall just like those periods.

Also March of 2017, Central Park with 7.5 inches of snow and Thunder Sleet.

For those time periods the average snowfall is retained for different reasons (I did mention in the past that the storms would be more intense so when it does snow like last February it is more intense). Again by warming Indian ocean temperatures will increase phase one and two which should counteract the Indonesian water temps. The problem I am seeing is there seems to be a tendency to state that what we're experiencing from 2018 is a new Norm and cannot change one way or the other. It is an extremely small period of time which has seen two 20 + snowfall seasons and one above average snowfall season excluding this winter since 2018. That is not bad at all. Yes we had three abysmal Winters to even out the three Winters I mentioned. However in no way do I see what's happening as in stone and has been countered in recent years for certain months. This will continue to happen in this year shows that we can have three months in a row of below average winter temperatures. I just want the board to understand that we are not in some abysmal snowfall climate that started with a light switch in 2019. We are in fact entering a low snowfall period after a high snowfall time frame the same as we did after 1969. Yes we are a bit warmer and snow retention will suffer however we are still not far off from that 30-year time frame. I can definitely see 2020 to 2040 dropping from the 21-inch average of the 1970 through 1990 time frame two maybe 19 inches from 2020 to 2040. I can also see it rising to 23 inches due to more intense snows like last February. Time will tell.

I am a stats guy and they are good at padding the stats.

Just for educational purposes this is not a cutter LOL. It's not an inland runner either. I wouldn't even call it a coastal hugger. This depiction, and it's only one mile depiction so it can change a million times, is of an inside the benchmark track. Those give more snow than a coastal hugger but do change to ice and rain occasionally as it is inside the benchmark. I would take this in a heartbeat as you would get a good thump to start.

In this Storm makes no sense however I do like looking in that direction for storms that are going to change over for us as more snow for them would mean more snow for us LOL.

And I fully believe we will get back to clippers dropping South and get three to six four to eight snow storms at some point again. From 2000 to 2018 this board was actually discussing how the coastal hugger was completely extinct and Albany and inland was complaining that the coast always got snow. Well since 2017 the coastal hugger has become unextinct so I fully expect the same for clippers. In fact we have some clippers they have just been moisture starved which is odd considering the higher moisture content from the higher ocean temperatures. Also remember in that 30-year period of 1970 through 1999, 14 out of the 30 years were below 19 inches for Central Park. Almost 50%. As the weather always changes, at some point the fast flow will calm down and it'll change and maybe for the worst or better depending on other factors,but it will change. And a question I have is why is nobody analyzing the warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean and just focusing on Indonesia? If Forky is correct and saying that warmer Waters circulate to the Western areas of our oceans (I mean it's true of curse), the same must hold true for the Indian Ocean which would increase the frequency and intensity of phases 1 and 2 which are colder for this region. It's sort of a balance if you will. However this ocean seems to be totally ignored. My mind is blown however on how well Ocean City Maryland has been doing since 2018, it's mind-boggling. My childhood vacation spot which is completely surrounded by water, one side the bay, one side the ocean and is a toaster bath with extreme humidity in the summertime.

I mean it can't last forever right. Looking at the CFS weeklies it aligns with the mjo progression through phases 1 and 2 which are colder than average. Then around mid March reward which is good for spring.

I do find the southeast ridge AO connection interesting, and Don's statistics showed it happened twice in the 30-year period while I already happened three times in the recent times. So there seems to be an uptick statistically. That being said I do not believe it is the southeast ridge in and of itself flexing otherwise we would not have suppressed tracks this often or Gulf Coast snow. I believe the southeast ridge is getting pumped up by more intense storms, which would make more sense as it would explain why we are storms don't fly north because of a pumping Southeast ridge, rather intensifying storm just pulls the line up. Obviously this would occur when there's an RNA. Another Factor is just looking at the statistical value of blocking does not tell the whole story. One has to look at where the blocking develops in addition to the strength. Remember this bad period only started in 2018/2019. A tiny snapshot in the overall picture.

I got four on the last one but only expecting a half inch at best on this one. All good though. I am happy when everybody on the board get snow.

I don't know to me what I've experienced the past 7 years is exactly what I experienced back in the 80s and 90s, and apparently the '70s were the same too. Yes it was a little colder but the same the storm tracks were exactly the same. Always cutter hugger suppressed over and over again. Whether or not it has to do with the southeast ridge linking up to the AO more often than that time frame, the results are the same. I don't want to upset the board and say that we're in a middle of a 30-year bad period for snowfall like that one was, however I was actually hopeful that the warmer temperatures would help eliminate the suppressed track and move everything a bit north (and more moisture-laden) but obviously that's not the case as DC, Ocean City Maryland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tennessee are all doing fine while we endure suppression yet again. A positive would be that although temperatures are a little warmer than that time frame, we are a long long ways away from removing snow from our environment for obvious reasons. We will have a 1995-96 type winter again, a 2002 2003 again and so on and so on. It's just we're in a low snowfall period however where a lot of areas were losing out on snowfall during our time frame from 2000 to 2018 they are now reaping the benefits that are expense. Sharing the wealth LOL.

What model shows a cutter for the 20? I looked at the Canadian the GFS in the euro and not one of them is even close to a cutter. Remember a cutter goes to the Great lakes.

Happy the South and Southwest part of the forum are going to make up for the last event on this one good luck everyone.