EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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That confluence to the Northeast of Canada is holding the high pressures in place.
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No it's further out in time but it's more in line with the optimal time frame where the blocking becomes more established. Check out the high pressures and the slug of moisture.
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GFS has the closest thing to a KU we can get. The only caveat is the changeover gets pretty far north again to about Central Jersey but given it's out there in time the details don't matter there is a banana high and a lot of moisture coming north.
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Truth be told I live in New England too in Easton Connecticut.
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You're in a prime spot for the next event this weekend being further east. The weeklies did show the favorable pattern lasting into mid-march. Devil is in the details of course and past success does not guarantee future results.
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It really does look like the beginning of the last blocking episode in January where the Mid-Atlantic scored as well. -
Great post by Seymour snow. Please know that part of that sub forum includes Fairfield county Connecticut only a few miles from New York City.
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Extended so we all know the caveats. Would rather it show this than the opposite. Disclaimer, snowfall depiction does not guarantee snowfall in your backyard. Please review responsibly.
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Actually looks a lot like January's cold outbreak, albeit a bit muted.
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That is as close to a perfect look as you will see. Suppression less of an issue due to the Western Atlantic ridge, negative EPO bleeding into the PNA region. Trough in the middle of the country working with the Western Atlantic ridge to pull moisture up. Blocking far enough South to help mitigate suppression.
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I have a question why are Kutchera maps banned from posting? I'm conscious of the fact that it can over inflate in all snow events, however, shouldn't an exception be made for changeover type events since sleet over inflates the 10 to 1 maps? I have been using a positive snow depth maps, although they can sometimes be low. They did nail the half an inch for Central Park yesterday.
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It's just the nam so one model suite, however as depicted the initial snow band weakens before it gets here then the mixing happens. Long Island sound change over line stay static. Let's see what the other models show.
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That's hilarious about TWC. The climate is warming however why not throw in there that suppressed storms of the past would be pumped up and hit us due to the more present Southeast ridge and the virga storms of the past like 1987 would be more snow due to the higher moisture content in higher temperatures? They need to paint the total picture lol. I mean this storm was never supposed to be a big event I think two to four for Central Park is a big win. This is the 1970 through 1999 period in a nutshell, cold and dry warm and wet or a complete toaster baths with extreme warm Winters or frigid Winters with no precept. Every year growing up it was pulling teeth trying to get an all snow event LOL.
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Way out there but there is a PNA out west with blocking to the north here. Suppression would be the obvious risk here not cutter. That being said wow.
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Keep in mind the good pattern last to the end of the month so even in a worst case scenario like described it's not the end of the chances.
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Still looks good to have a favorable pattern to the end of the month.
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Not sure why this would be disappointing, would likely be Central Park's largest snowfall total for the year and was always supposed to be a mix event.
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GFS 3.5 as well for Central Park. Only EURO and CMC are a bit higher. 2 to 4 is a good call right now for Central Park.
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Both names are remarkably close with snowfall totals for Central Park 3K 2.5 12K 3.5 inches.
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Yup, though will be the highest snowfall totals for Central Park this season and likely putting it over 10 inches for the season.
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What's crazy is the pattern will likely last till the end of the month.
