EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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The beginning of the good period. Doesn't look like a risk of the SE ridge linking with the NAO.
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If Central Park can get 0.5 inches in today's storm no reason they can't get 1 to 3 in this event. All gravy before the blocking period really kicks in next week until the end of the month. -
Definitely a bit north this run. Looking at the positive snow depth 24-hour output it's basically the same amount of snow for the tri-state area as 6Z.
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Half inch for Central Park is a win I imo. The later runs of the hrrr had a Central Park between a half inch and an inch.
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Definitely looking better from a track perspective. I think the risk here, if we even want to call it a risk as it would be snow, would be less precipitation. Forky mentioned he was not a fan of the compressed flow which can cause the shredder effect. Something to keep a pulse on. Right now looks fantastic.
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Could very well be. I do like the fact that the ensemble show the window of a good period open through the last week of the month. So we may continue to rack up lighter events even after this one.
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For a KU event the Stars need to align usually. Just look at the period from 1970 through 1999. 30 years and only five above average snowfall seasons, and a debatable number of foot plus seasons where the national weather service may be missing a few (in any event nowhere near the amount we saw from 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, parallel time frames for high snowfall totals and KU events). Five seasons in 30 years. You are correct when you are saying we are in a low snowfall period, with one above average snowfall season, excluding this season for now, in 6 years. Really on track with the aforementioned 30-year period.
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Yeah below average snowfall winter is favorite at this point given the low snowfall total.
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When looking at the ensembles there is definitely a Southeast ridge Spike in the middle of the period. Not sure if this is La Nina driven or merely an intense storm cutting to our West pumping up the Southeast ridge. Thereafter we continue with the trough in the east which aligns with the mjo passage. The look below is not bad at all.
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Nice look continues on the eps. Not overly suppressive with the block and a slight semblance of a negative EPO.
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Mjo wave is looking stronger now on the gefs.
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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Just reach 1 inch of snow in Easton Connecticut. Sleet snow mix. -
The blocking matures around the 20th and a little after so there's a lot of time left on the clock. The next storm is a better set up than this one as the low pressure is further south in the cold air ahead of it is a little deeper.
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They had a half inch already today, not sure what they're up to for the season. The stat may not to be tracked however.
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Thanks Don, This has to be the greatest number of accumulating snowfalls before reaching 10 inches for Central Park.
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Snowflakes getting larger changeover could be approaching Easton CT.
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Still snow in Easton Connecticut.
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Track looks to be a little further south than this one too.
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Thanks Walt. As for this system I have seen it so many times in my day where we change over much quicker than expected (this type of setup), especially when the high pressure has moved off the coast.
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Interesting when you play the frames the EPO pinches off and heads toward the Scandinavian ridge which collides into the AO region. In any event Southeast ridge is muted from the block although the air will not be all that cold. That said average temps are plenty for February. Mjo should be heading through 8 at this juncture.
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Drought buster.
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Given the guidance so far I believe the map that the NWS published makes the most sense.
