EastonSN+

Thanks for all that you do/have done! What is insane is once again BDR is beating me for snowfall again. Only at 4.5 in Easton CT.

GREAT job this morning!! This is what I enjoy, intelligent discussions which can lead to new ideas/hypothesis. A lot of posters/readers have benefited.

Yup I posted the plots before. Same exact progression.

Like train tracks.....we wait for phase 1.

Gotcha. Here on the CT coast the first two storms had more to do with poor radar returns than warmth.

The last storm didn't stick there? It was in the 20s and it stuck to the jersey shore.

We would have been in the purple too, like central Jersey, if the last storm gained latitude. Track hurt us.

It has more to do with track than warmth. The last storm was cold enough everywhere, however it stayed south.

Still a better year than 97/98 lol. The MJO is doing exactly what it did in December. Unfortunately we may be looking at 2nd half of month or a bit later. Not ideal.

Also shows how timing/luck plays in. If the last storm was a little farther north, the first storm intensified a little earlier/deeper.

I know the MJO isn't everything, however we seem to be mirroring the last wave. Not sure when we will be back in 1/2 however we will likely have another colder spell. Maybe DC scores again!

The funniest part is we STILL could not stop a storm from turning to rain with that look lol.

Correct! Here is the infamous December 1989 outbreak. This is where we get the cold records that places like KC had this outbreak.

Curiously comparing this decade to the 1980s in terms of average annual snowfall. 1980s = 19.74. Above average snowfall year count = 0. 2020s = 19.6 (excluding this year of course). Above average snowfall winter count = 1. Bluewave mentioned volatility uptick in recent decades. So perhaps our snowfall remains on par, although distributed differently.

Thanks! I am surprised they did better on 89/90, that winter was an absolute furnace outside of December (I remember one storm here that turned to ice after being like 10 degrees before the storm lol).

I wonder when the last time DC had more snowfall than CPK? Was it really 09/10?

Expected. We wait till phase 1.

You can see how this is following the last wave. With the western IO temps expect another wave in phase 1.

This leads to what I was referring to before. The western IO water temps will once again have wave amplification in Phase 1 (see the MJO plot). Will be similar to what we just had in terms of MJO, albeit perhaps without the blocking.

Eh, 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years is real rough. This century Central Park had 13 above average snowfall winters in 23 years, or 56.52%. Huge contrast unfortunately.

I mean strong Ninos typically have one period, we just failed to take advantage like 82/83 and 15/16.

I think we will see good winters sprinkled in. Looking at 70 through 99 as a benchmark for futility, CPK only had 5 above average snowfall winters in 30 years, or 16.67%. So far from 18/19 onwards, excluding this winter, CPK has 1 above average winter in 5 years, or 20%. We should see more amplitude in phases 1 and 2 given the rapidly rising western IO temps, which will help offset 4 through 7. Phases 3 and 8 will likely be reduced. We may have better luck than 70 through 90 as "suppression" may be offset by the SE ridge. 90 through 99 perhaps not.

Shouldn't we re-emerge in phase 1 again like the last wave? Check those ocean temps off Africa in phases 1 and 2.