EastonSN+

Canadian took a step back.

This is exactly why I don't understand it's like the topic is avoided for whatever reason.

Amazing hit on the GFS for the Delmarva. What a winter for them. Let's see if it holds.

Actually liking this weekend for a light to moderate thump more than the 20th (closer and no suppression risk).

@LibertyBell lol still waiting.

The 6z Euro snowfall map has been posted in New England forum in case anyone's interested. Has one inch in Central Park. Eastern Long Island on a North shore gets 2 inches. CT shoreline is three to five. Westchester county approximate two to four.

Good analysis from Tip.

LOL I raised this topic a dozen times in the subform looking for anybody to opine. You are the only one to acknowledge that it was ever spoken like it was some kind of voodoo, or the answer is too dangerous for us to know. I keep saying the Indian Ocean is rising in temperatures so we should see an increase in phases 1 and 2 which in the heart of Winter are very cold phases. This is likely why January was so frigid because it was a high amplitude phase 1 and phase 2. That's Indian ocean temperatures. That being said we thought the Indonesian high water temps would lead to a semi-permanent 456 phases however that has not been the case at all this winter.

I actually envy Long Island during the big coastals as the northerly wind in northeasterly wind cause snowfall to be a little more intense due to the sound.

To any/all in the subforum. Don't want to keep breaching this topic, however, just need any explanation from anyone on what the differences are between this depiction where the SE ridge is NOT linking to the NAO compared to the instances BlueWave pointed out where it is. What do I look out for to tell the difference? Maybe Bluewave and Brooklyn agree on an independent 3rd party meteorologist to provide an opinion. Such opinion would be binding in the absence of manifest error.

Completely agree when you run the animation on the op runs you see the confluence rotating down from the Northeast right as a storm approaches. Have to hope that's a bit weaker in the storm a bit more ampt.

Just a couple years too late LOL. I believe that was a good spot for 1978 as well and of course Nemo. Three of the best storms in history for that area. They did pretty good in that bust of a storm in 2015 was over a foot there.

I am usually positive thinking however not feeling good on 2/19 to 2/22. The confluence is strong.

Barrier island so water east south and west.

Thanks for these. Always hard to tell if would be that different today.

I think there's two points being discussed. The storm track is the issue where it's cold and dry warm and wet 1980s style. There is another point about it being too warm suddenly which I think is where the debate is lying where some are saying we're losing out on gradient storms because it's getting warmer but yet people are seeing snowfall on the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying this myself but some may be saying if we are suddenly too warm on a gradient why isn't New Orleans or Washington DC too warm for a gradient. I think as Blue Wave mentioned we have a current fast flow which favors weak waves to the South and amped up waves to the lakes which would explain what's going on the best. This will change at some point hopefully soon and we'll get storms like we used to but who knows how long we have to wait.

That's not the case Ocean City Maryland got destroyed this year. Literally pictures of snow accumulation on the beach.

Yep and if Central Park gets 2 in Saturday then it would have outperformed 50% of the output which is good for an ensemble mean.

Yeah I never pay attention to op snowfall output as we have seen so many times especially on the GFS. Too high but not outrageous. If we get that 2 Saturday that's 7.5, only 4 inches low on the mean not bad for a long range snowfall output imo.

In reality if Central Park gets 2 inches this weekend they will be at 7.5. that's not horrible compared to the ensemble. The gefs at 11.5 this has 12 but that's only a half inch difference. Nobody would have cared if it ended up at 15.5.

My point was the largest snowfall output on the ensembles was 11.5 for Central Park.

Ensembles had 11.5 for a Central Park and they ended up with 5.5 so far. The 360 hours from that ensemble run includes this coming up weekend so if Central Park gets another 2 inches will be at 7.5 which is not far from what the ensembles were showing of 11.5. So not that far off from the ensembles. The problem was a couple of op runs were insane.

Is that La Nina? Also the ensembles agree on a trough.

If we can get a storm then we'll have snow retention for at least 2 weeks as it gets really cold afterwards.

I have heard that negative AO favors the Mid-Atlantic while a negative nao favors the Northeast. This would explain why in this episode the Middle Atlantic scores are not us. The nao barely goes negative while the AO is strongly negative and of course the Middle Atlantic got the storm.