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EastonSN+

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  1. EastonSN+
    Yup, that's why I mentioned that there is more N/S interaction on this run, however need to see that continue and other models to match on. However, if the fast PAC theory is correct the southern low will escape east. This is a good test to the fast PAC theory (i.e. can we still get N/S interaction).
  2. EastonSN+
    Lol, Don/Bluewave, I may have just answered my own question as to why the Delmarva/Norfolk are fairing much better to average than us. The faster PAC flow keeping them north of the storm track.
  3. EastonSN+
    Also, as Bluewave has mentioned with the fast PAC jet, faster flow leads to lett time for NS interaction.
  4. EastonSN+
    This is what I was referring to w/R/t NS interaction. The northern low is further south and west, allowing for the storm to track a bit north. Still possible, however it's a tricky setup. If the N stream low is further north or east, the storm will exit further south.
  5. EastonSN+
    Thanks. Also, phases 1 and 2 are cold for the east and central plains as we witnessed in January. Perhaps this will be more common given the IO temps. I do fear we are losing 8 though. Water temps do have a limit, so regions 1,2 and 3 will likely "catch up", which is why I do believe we will see more record cold shots, albeit perhaps relatively brief in nature. Central plains more favored in general.
  6. EastonSN+
    I am taking models verbatim and I do subscribe, sometimes to my detriment like 14/15, that winters do follow a pattern. We need the NS interaction to bring this north. A little tricky.
  7. EastonSN+
    Thanks. Looking at the MJO, it looks like we will see more forcing in this location, likely why the MA is favored again for the next storm. Per the snip below looks like forcing is commencing in 1/2 again.
  8. EastonSN+
    Yeah a strong low over the Delmarva/off Atlantic City is never good for our area. See December 1992, EXTREMELY powerful storm over the Delmarva yet mostly rain. We do far better with a storm EXITING the Delmarva moving east northeast. Not our setup unfortunately. Still have a shot at some snow as the ow deepens and moves east.
  9. EastonSN+
    Thanks, is this difference also why the MA is doing better with snowfall than 1998 this Year? That year we had no hope at all, yet this year they may receive another event next week. Something else caused 1998 to be far less snowy than this year down there. Is the faster flow allowing them to stay on the colder side?
  10. EastonSN+
    Thanks Don, This is true, however, I fear that while we focus on the current anomolies we may not be contemplating future change as well. The one constant in life and weather is chang. 1.) IO temperatures are warming extremely fast. This will be MJO 1,2 and 3. Will this offset forcing in 4,5,6. Or will this provide us with another new setup? 2.) We witnessed the "blob" off the west coast which greatly affected 13 through 15. What caused that and will it happen again? The PAC jet cut the PNA repeatedly the last 2 years, however, what if we see the return off the west coast? 3.) What is causing the Delmarva/Norfolk to continue to receive snow while we do not? Does this current environment favor them? Faster jet=faster flow therefore when it's cold enough storms do not have time to climb the coast (they do not warm and change)? 4.) If the aforementioned is true and the PAC jet is screaming, why are we still seeing very powerful cutters? Why is the fast PAC allowing it cutters? Why not huggers or coastals? 5.) What worked right in 00/01 to allow for a KU in Feb and a borderline KU earlier that December? One would think this is impossible given last 2 years, however it did work out. That is obviously still possible, perhaps more often as well? IMO climate change is more than just "everything is warmer", but rather "increased volatility". Therefore, by nature temperatures from a day to day perspective will be volatile as well, meaning more powerful cold shots (like we just witnessed will the record cold out west) as well as more powerful storms, both tropical and extra tropical. Coastal NC was hammered 2 years ago, perhaps this will also be more common.
  11. EastonSN+
    Yeah, and Don referenced "the elephant in the room" before the season began, referring of course to 1998. Unfortunately here we are. Although, the Middle Atlantic has performed much better than us this year.
  12. EastonSN+
  13. EastonSN+
    Heat island effect lol
  14. EastonSN+
    Yeah I was lazy, here is Kuchera. Would be best case for CPK and LI.
  15. EastonSN+
    Yeah I saw that. I think it comes down to the back end. How much is left and how much does the low deepen. I literally live 1.5 miles north of the Merritt lol.
  16. EastonSN+
    12 k was colder and snowier than 3k south of 84 FWIW.
  17. EastonSN+
    NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW.
  18. EastonSN+
    Lol don't worry, just take a 4 hour drive south to the Delmarva they are above average snowfall for last few years. Heck even coastal North Carolina got hammered one storm.
  19. EastonSN+
    Yeah not feeling this one down here.
  20. EastonSN+
    I always take decadal stats from 0, i.e. 00/01, 10/11, 20/21, which would put this decade at 15.275. still bad but a bit better.
  21. EastonSN+
    Maybe, winters tend to have a theme. Hopefully next year is our next 20/21.
  22. EastonSN+
    Kind of a big cut back for coastal plain.
  23. EastonSN+
    If it does not work out we will get em next time.
  24. EastonSN+
    We had a high amplitude 1, 2 and 3 in January. The IO temps are rising fast which will increase 1,2 and 3.
  25. EastonSN+
    It's going to go through 1,2 and 3.
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