EastonSN+
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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Maybe the SE ridge was not as strong on this model suite? -
Yeah those who just lived through 2000 onwards I can see panic. Otherwise we see how much of any we shave off of the 1970 to 1999 average.
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Was the 6z EPS posted?
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I think more analysis is needed as we thought that Indonesian Waters would create a semi-permanent 456 mjo which for some reason has not been the case at all. Heck even the southeast ridge linking to the nao per Don has increased in frequency but has also occurred in the past per his stats. We do not know how much variability there is since the sample size is small. Not saying the above are not true however literally just 6 years from an epic period is not time to state that everything has changed and nothing is going to go back. I might as well put this in here again does anybody know why the rising Indian ocean temperatures are not discussed if the Indonesian water temperatures rising causes such an effect on our weather?
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I think bringing up the deep South is valid in a sense that it keeps everything in perspective. Warming is a slow process, it does not mean uh-oh our Winters are over and we will never have a 95/96 again. Some posts make readers believe that it's all over it's too warm. I get it some want to raise an alarm to wake up some people however a true poster will explain it in more detail. Therefore even though it's warmer now we can still get snow even historic snow and warm places like the Gulf. The snowfall average will inevitably start to drop however you're probably looking at 2 to 4 inches off the average per decade rather than cut in half. We are not even definitively sure if this has started already as we are not far off from the 1970 through 1999 average. If we get a big snow storm this week we're probably going to be close to in line.
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And this is likely the reason we have these long extended multi-decade periods where it seems everything goes wrong for snow events here and the Mid-Atlantic usually scores as well as the mountains of New England. This will work again down the road however how many of us will still be around LOL
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Would be interesting to see as that period mirrored 2000 to 2018 which were dominated by KU events. From a large scale perspective I don't think we can compare to those Winters.
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In the changing climate you have to move to the Delmarva or Florida to get snow.
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Brooklyn WX explained before that it was not a Southeast ridge flex but rather an amplifying system. So we have two opinions on this phenomenon. I wish another red tagger would weigh in.
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The lack of an nao I believe is to blame. This leaves room for a storm to go into the apps. However the strength of the AO kept it from going into Canada and well redevelop East. If the nao was negative there would be no chance of it cutting.
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Borrowed from the New England forum
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Still if it's the least snowy model that's not bad. If it comes in heavy enough it will accumulate the city could get one to three.
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Euro snow map pasted it in New England forum. Looks really good. Central Park 2 inches and 2 inch line kind of goes through Long Island.
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Snowstorm Caboose is a new one. Phase 8 induced snowstorm Caboose.
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The Delmarva has been a magnet all season long except for the one storm that targeted Florida with the heaviest snow (never thought I'd ever say that).
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Difference is this is not a slow monster pushing against confluence. In this case there is a kicker storm pushing the flow therefore it doesn't have a chance to push North. So a little bit different than situations like 2003 and 96.
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Canadian took a step back.
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This is exactly why I don't understand it's like the topic is avoided for whatever reason.
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Amazing hit on the GFS for the Delmarva. What a winter for them. Let's see if it holds.
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Actually liking this weekend for a light to moderate thump more than the 20th (closer and no suppression risk).
