EastonSN+

Wouldn't shorter wavelengths help post 15th? Bowling ball lows.

Complete opposite of the GFS suite.

A smidge north and stronger than 6z, however, the ensembles tend to follow the op at this range.

Really strange but it gives a little validity to the Canadian solution.

Given the IO temps, I think higher amplitude in phases 1,2 and 3 are our best opportunity. Yeah phase 8 will be weak.

I don't know how we can do worse than 4 above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. We had already 1 in 6 if we include this year. Also, the 90s only had 2 years above average in that 10 year span.

It did move south wrt low pressure location. Yes weaker.

Yeah, we lose with the GFS and the Canadian in opposite directions.

Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models. All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning.

Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey.

Also, the GFS move SLIGHTLY north. It's not like it was a jump. Could be noise or a trend. Too early to tell.

Eh, really depends on what the EURO does.

Yeah CPK drops from 2.6 to 2.1.

I know overly simplistic, however, not a bad idea omit the outliers and take a weighted average of the primary models. The outliers being ICON and RGEM.

Wait, the confluence is gone?

I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great! Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. The warm waters in the IO will help us here. Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track.

Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z

Perfect

The waters in the western IO are rising fast. Would be shocked if we did not get a spike in phases 1,2 and 3.

It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter.

Eh, if this fails we'll get a good winter soon enough.

To be fair we have had over 4 in our area lol

EURO will be the tie breaker.

CMC

Courtesy of MA forum.