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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    PAH with an excellent winter forecast briefing package. I wish OHX issued more of these: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/DssPacket.pdf
  2. *Flash*
    Correct me if I'm wrong but I'd think the WAA/changeover to rain would eradicate the glaze ahead of any glorified dusting potential. I agree in theory though. Any snow accumulation on top of ice is a tough prospect wherever that occurs.
  3. *Flash*
    I'm curious as to the Benton County inclusion. Seems like a rogue addition.
  4. *Flash*
    DT WxRisk will certainly take it.
  5. *Flash*
    I think parts of southern KY may bust a bit on expected wintry QPF totals from the weekend storm but overall, I say we're dodging an icy bullet. Sharp ice/snow accumulation cutoffs into central KY seem likely but we'll see. Really hoping this system plays a healthy part in setting the table for us mid-month. My current concern is the Sunday/Monday system being a miss to our north and the following system a miss to our south.
  6. *Flash*
    Yeah, this isn’t a Lucy with the football situation. It’s probably more the models rubbing their eyes, second guessing data validity.
  7. *Flash*
  8. *Flash*
    Shades of 2013-14 for portions of middle TN on that run. Snowdome 2.0...especially for NW middle TN. Hopefully, the suppression won't be THAT strong but like Carver said, the fact it's possible is proof of the potential in play.
  9. *Flash*
    As a Reservist for Hope Force International, I can confirm this region is still well on our minds.
  10. *Flash*
    Kinda nervous middle TN will be on the cold dry side of things next month. The real fun seems to be on and east of the plateau.
  11. *Flash*
    Not the same pattern but reminds me of three years ago when we roasted around the holidays. I want to say New Years was severe and then middle/east TN struck gold during mid-January with multiple events.
  12. *Flash*
    Same here. Lightning flashes have been frequent at times. More instability than expected I think.
  13. *Flash*
    100%. Worst case, would love to be able to chase up to Monterey.
  14. *Flash*
    I like the look, too, Carvers. Anomalous or not, give me amplitude, blocking, and volatility and I'll take my chances.
  15. *Flash*
    NSFW. I was going to report this to a moderator but saw '46 day' so we good. Those pinks are hot!
  16. *Flash*
    He sounds moderately confident that the mid-month pattern change is more of a reload. We'll see. Either way, January is looking quite mysterious at the moment.
  17. *Flash*
    Btw, Happy First Day of Met Winter, ya'll. Whatever happens in the months to come, at least it feels the part coming out of the gate. On a side note, I have a holiday break coming up December 20-January 2. My wife asked me if there was any potential for a white Christmas year. I told her while I lack a crystal ball, the pattern could promote some chances in the OH/TN valley, especially during the first few weeks. In response, she said the fam would be on standby to go snowchasing as needed. Inside I was like...so that's where some of the hotness went from last month.
  18. *Flash*
    Negative asian mountain torque. Good Lord, we are a bunch of geeks/nerds. I love it!
  19. *Flash*
    It's a one year sample but if you go back and look at the last strong +TNH pattern (I.e. 2013-14), I-40 between Memphis and Nashville was shut out consistently. The 'Snowdome' winter as they call it locally (for BNA, the #1 worst winter in terms of mean temp/total snow) preceded my first year on this forum. I'm not suggesting a repeat at all; however, unless we get some eastern blocking mechanism, I'm not sure all parts of TN will capitalize. That said, December continues to look more encouraging by the day as new data comes in, but the long term is still iffy. As several have already mentioned on here, how the TNH/EPO combo develops will be telling moving forward. HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!
  20. *Flash*
    ePac ridging and Hudson Bay low position/strength will be a fun tandem to watch this winter. I think we'll get some cooperation from places we didn't expect a month ago. Side note: It hit me today how when people inquire our thoughts about a given winter, we can simply say 'I'm mildly optimistic' and we'll be right every time.
  21. *Flash*
    So far through 38 years, I haven't had measurable snow on my birthday (December 6). I like that there's a reasonable chance this year. Token flurries will suffice.
  22. *Flash*
    I do think our warmer periods will be more frequent throughout the winter but I also think our source regions won't struggle to get fed, fill up, and overflow thanks to that -EPO. The visual that comes to mind ironically stems from the summer months during which I take my kids to the splash pad often. Those big buckets? They're filling up every 50 seconds as hyper littles scatter beneath. But those 10 seconds from the point the bucket starts to tilt to complete splashdown are glorious. Our 2024-25 winter in a nutshell.
  23. *Flash*
    Don't quote me on this next month, but based on how the past month has gone, I'm fine with sNOw in the short term. Just give me seasonal temps that get me in the holiday spirit. That's all I can ask for the final six weeks of any year. For west/middle TN, any accumulation before the new year is gravy.
  24. *Flash*
    Moving this here based on the content though it does tap into my Friday evening post.
  25. *Flash*
    Yes sir, I’m seeing that as well!
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