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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    Great analysis by Convective Chronicles regarding today's threat:
  2. *Flash*
    Can't wait until Force Thirteen does a simulated recap of this storm. Shape shifting hurricanes like Juan (1985), Joaquin (2015), and Leslie (2018) are some of my favorite storms to analyze in hindsight.
  3. *Flash*
    17z HRRR is a hair west of 16z with the precip shield. We'll see if the primary axis is I-24 east or along I-24 and east. At this point, I'll gladly take some wattery severe storm or no severe storm. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023062517&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=
  4. *Flash*
    The morning round seems to be overproducing in east TN. Curious how meso boundaries will set up for the later round. That may be a key player for the Enhanced Risk areas in the middle TN RVA.
  5. *Flash*
    Looking at SPC's latest guidance, it appears middle TN is going to be spared the worst of the action. Straight-line winds may be an issue but the large hail/tornado risk will stay to our north apparently. At this time yesterday, northern middle looked like it was more under the gun.
  6. *Flash*
    That's an awesome pic! Probably the most majestic spout I've ever seen. Also, I'm in Port Saint Joe this week taking the fam on vaca. Just curious...what do you miss about Jacksonville? I've only been once. I assume the climatology isn't the answer...
  7. *Flash*
    Pretty remarkable to see a rainless week in early/mid April. Sure looks like we have one on our hands coming up. We’ll need some more rainy days by month’s end but the lower humidities will feel good for a while.
  8. *Flash*

    ENSO

    *Flash* replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    It will be interesting to see how this ENSO shift impacts winter weather next year. Records only go back so far but a high moderate to super El Niño coming off a multi-year La Niña event, seems like a generational occurrence. Not much in terms of analogs but 1972-73 and 2009-10 stand out as both produced average to above-average snowfall results (at least for mid TN; not sure about east TN). I cut off the last decade as I didn't find a pattern sequence match. Also, just for kicks, the last time BNA saw 8.0"+ took place during the SE Winter of 2015-16. Probably the best local example of a warm winter that took advantage of a glorious two-week stretch. Whatever happens, we just need some jet mergence potential during our next cold season. We saw very little of it this past winter.
  9. *Flash*
    Hey all. Is there an April thread that I'm not seeing? Just wanted to double check. Thanks!
  10. *Flash*
    The warmth is notable at this time of day. Feels gross by early April standards but we've seen hot April days before even coming off A-grade winter. For some reason, April 2, 2010 comes to mind. Record high day for BNA at 91 or 92? Either way, I’m glad the pattern is still transient. Similar to John, Mid-May is when the dread finds me. Give me a summer 2013/2014 repeat and I may change my tune a little.
  11. *Flash*
    Suddenly, my decision to snowchase to Carbondale in January is further validated, lol. Glad I made that call.
  12. *Flash*
    So the GFS idea of showing a weekend wave of low pressure along the front…don't buy the solution? Sorry, I just need some hope to cling on to right now.
  13. *Flash*
    Yep. i'm rooting for the Plateau to have a final shot as this is the only true 'Hail Mary' shot of seeing snow with the fam until next season. One year ago today middle TN was getting spoiled again with a decent ankle-biter snow event. Crazy how times have changed in just a year. Already lookin' ahead to 2024, in part, with a new ENSO to talk about.
  14. *Flash*
    Just need one more legit storm to track. Granted, they've been far and few between. Still, the thought of a less than ideal/weak Nina winter producing a trio of events...I'd take that as a moral victory.
  15. *Flash*
    All bark, no bite. Story of today's chase...
  16. *Flash*
    Notes from my chase to Tennessee City today. That TVS was trying it's best but fell apart as I approached it. A defined lowering yes...but surface winds were just so weak. Really the most notable feature was the ground-to-cloud lightning. There was plenty of it out that way. I'll post some footage later because whatever hail shaft/wall cloud I encountered was worth the trip.
  17. *Flash*
    Not sure about chasing tomorrow morning. Still tempted but seems too hit/miss below 2500 feet. I prefer a set chase as opposed to a goosechase.
  18. *Flash*
    I'll pass on Chatty for now...but will certainly keep an eye on things. Ideally I wouldn't have to hit any eastern valleys and keep travels confined to the plateau.
  19. *Flash*
    Trying to figure out if I take the older kiddos to Sewanee or Monterey on Sunday. Those are my favorite snow-chasing destinations on the plateau. Would love to be able to keep a drive within a few hours.
  20. *Flash*
    Doesn’t the Euro tend to overamp? As a middle TN resident, would love to actually see a NW trend work in our favor but I’m not sure the Euro has the best beat on this yet.
  21. *Flash*
    ULL, weather man's woe. Hopefully, it turns into a wow. 18z ECMWF Ens...doesn't look too shabby for middle TN.
  22. *Flash*
    Yeah, yeah, I wish this was all snow...and yeah, we didn't get hit as hard as Texas/Arkansas...but 3 waves of ice in 3 days still made for a memorable week...
  23. *Flash*
    12z GFS giveth, 18z GFS taketh away. Probably a more realistic look for next weekend. Still early.
  24. *Flash*
    Just waking up. Regardless of what happens, that's some healthy digging/trough action. Interesting this is occurring right as the +PNA and +NAO starts to dip. Why do I have this sick feeling the same places that cashed in January 24-25 will score again?
  25. *Flash*
    I've been so focused on this week's weather, I haven't been paying attention to the long-term. Seems like we're set for a warm rest of the month before one last winter hurrah just in time for spring?
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