*Flash*
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Everything posted by *Flash*
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Drought conditions aside (I'll take my quarter inch and run from 10/5/23), I'm diggin' this +PNA/-EPO pattern. Hopefully, we'll see a few weeks of this during actual winter. Despite September 2023 being the warmest since 2019 for BNA, still seems like fall is behaving itself so far in the early going. Outside the heat bubble, many outside locales have been right on top of average as opposed to slightly over.
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Cryptic Carver with a double ellipse. My favorite. I'm going to assume he's talking about the Greenland blocking showing up on the Euro Weeklies for next month...
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Agreed. For those getting nervous about the extended creeping warmer, while there's some validity to it, it may be overdone. Whatever the case, when the humidities are as righteous as they are, it's hard to note the difference between a 75/52 day and a 80/55 one. Let's get those lows down and set the stage for some seasonable, on-time foliage next month.
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Day made… https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cw1LQX_L973/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
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You won me at 'permanent'.
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From what I understand, it's a prelim. Haven't caught a playable forecast, just this graphical eye-candy that I'm taking with a major rigid of salt. I agree with you in the sense whatever transpires DJF will feature large-scale amplification. I'm encouraged by the potential for a big-hitter or two but of course, it's too soon to know how long our window will be.
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Did anyone catch JB's 2023-24 winter weather forecast? Too soon to be putting these maps out in my opinion. Plus, why do I get the feeling our viewing area finds itself in the blue almost every year? Latest trends seem to suggest a stronger ENSO with effects pushing further into the fall/early winter. Unless that -PDO signal backs off and/or unless we get a more 'Modoki' look, I lean towards a milder winter with the classic hyperactive STJ bringing in an above average amount of precip/cloud cover days. Will likely be sticking with this take until I see overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
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True. At least mowing frequency will decrease with time. #silverlinings
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Nice to wake up to see the ECMWF retrograding the heat ridge westward (GFS has it too but a bit further east for my liking). Will a mid-month trough verify? I hope so! Regardless, September 2023 is looking less like a 2018 or 2019 repeat. I'll take it.
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Ah, good call about the Nina prior analog. While I imagine there won't be many seasons to pull from, might as well use next winter to build the sample size. I'll need to follow up; however, I want to say the last time we had three straight Moderate to Strong Nina seasons was 1998-99 to 2000-01. 2001-02 was a dud but it set the table well for the following year.
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Looking at Moderate to Strong El Ninos since 1950-51. It's interesting how even the peak of the bell curve is from OND to DJF. While some of these winters were whiffs, others had plenty of memorable moments. While the sample size isn't that great, per this list, it sure seems like non-weak Niño's are like the 'Three True Outcomes' of baseball. In most seasons, you're going to either strike out or hit a home-run, while in others, you may get by with a base-loaded walk. The peak intensity and other teleconnections represent the uniques pitches you get within the box.
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I'm definitely curious how the rest of the year will pan out temp wise given the timing of ENSO's peak. Perhaps we get a taste of fall late September/early-mid October before the torch comes back rest of the way. Personally, wouldn't mind the winter heat getting out of the way early a la December 2021 before a turn to much colder. Whatever the case, yesterday couldn't have been more fitting to end this summer. The last few days in particular not only brought in a refreshing air mass but ensured suburbs outside BNA would mean out under 80° for JJA. For many, this is the first time that has happened since 2014!
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Nice, John. Sure feels good out there relative to last week. I'm making plans to do some outdoor activities with the kiddos today. Looks like we'll have to wait a while for the next overcast day around these parts. Not a bad week to hit up some parks/hiking trails/splash pads, etc.
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Doesn't look like CPC and the CFS are on the same page. Gotta think this changes once they realize the Sonora and Bermuda Ridges are combining which can be a tight grip.
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To be fair, I think many of us have adjusted our expectations in recent years to round September to summer. It's hard to take fall seriously until October at best. Let's hope September 2023 is NOT a redux of September 2019. That's my concern at the moment. September 2018 and 2016 were rough as well, but at least there were snapshots of autumn those months...at least for middle TN. September 2019 was wall-to-wall blowtorch. Please, MJO, don't park yourself in phases 8-1. Wait until DJF.
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This guy needs to update his AMO page but it seems like the overall AMO trend is decreasing. Still net '+' but coming down. It's been going back and forth in bi-decadal stretches since the turn of the 20th century. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_amo_index.php
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Per Carver's post and the link provided, it seems the best winters relative to PDO generally (key word) coincide with weak phases. To me, I wouldn't get too caught up in positive vs. negative but focus more on signal strength. Can the PDO be overridden by other factors like MJO/ENSO/QBO, etc. That may be the question to ask, specifically can the PDO recover into weak territory by peak winter? We shall see. Whatever transpires in 2023-24, give me some mobile amplification. Not a fan when troughs park in the same areas for months at a time.
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I haven't done much in terms of research but experientially going back 25-30 years, while I recall Nino ENSO bringing less precip to middle TN, I'm not 100% sold there's a mirror correlation to below average snowfall. This century specifically, 2002-03, 2009-10, 2015-16 were very kind to BNA. 2006-07 was decent. A few of those ENSO's were weak, a few others were moderate. 2015-16 was super strong...basically a rare lottery win for our area as we were able to cash in during a 2 week window.
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I concur. We will need a strong -QBO if we have a strong east-based Niño. Preferably, our ENSO is weak to moderate so it doesn't drive mild pacific air all winter. At least, the stage seems set for a more unsettled, perhaps frontloaded pattern for mid/east TN.
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For awareness...
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100% agree. I was tellin' my wife the other day this may be the best summer since 2014 in terms of tamed heat and consistent precip. Not quite as cool in terms of mean temps, but more pleasant mornings/evenings relative to recent years. I'm still sore after a pathetic, underwhelming 2022-23 winter but this summer has been a decent consolation prize. ENSO seems to be doin' its thang. Let's just hope we're not encroaching on super territory a la 2015-16.
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Well, round 1 was pretty much non-existent. Even with ample moisture in play, it's hard to fathom enough energy making it north to metro areas to warrant the 'Enhanced Risk'. I've been wrong before though...
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For awareness...
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Based on latest radar trends, I'm curious to see if any semi-discrete cells will make into the mid-state and how long the windows for rounds 1 and 2 end up being. Right now for round 1, the potential for an over-clustered situation is there with a mostly messy storm mode. Seems like it will be less eventful compared to the overnight action. If I'm chasing, I'm more interested in areas south of 40 where cellular modes will be more consistent. Whatever the case, it certainly does not feel like August out there.
