*Flash*

I like to consider what drivers are quantifiably most anomalous. Magnitude generally matters. If the MJO is COD and you have a blocking tele that is extremed to one side of the ledger, I tend to give more credence to the latter. Granted, I still have much to learn when it comes to analyzing the atmosphere, especially 'cross-the-globe signals ending in torque or momentum. Three years in met school back in the day and some of the stuff we're talking about wasn't even a topic of conversation.

Per recent verification scores, it's a tad concerning the 0z GFS is more pro-cold than the 0z Euro, granted one run doesn't make a forecast. I imagine models are picking up on a transient warm spell before the hammer drop. As Carver noted last week, it just takes a few members to skew the batch. Still scratching my head why CPC is so warm for in their extended outlooks. Also, 'tis interesting amidst the flip-flopping, there are signs a +TNH pattern may develop. That in tandem with a -EPO can work for most of the forum, though with the SE ridge risk, I prefer the 'old school' -NAO/-AO being a more dominant driver. At least the southern jet looks cooperative. Preferably, I like average to slightly below average precip for January/February given what that can imply. I recall past Nina winters that went super zonal in January. Doesn't look that way this go-around.

CPC doing CPC things today.

Good update, Holston. I could be overly optimistic but it wouldn't surprise me if January fun 'n games continues into the first half of February. We've finally killed the heat dome in our state. Waking up to 20s never felt so good! On a separate note, I can't upload any media over 3.7 kb on this forum which essentially defeats the purpose. I'm not sure why my issues are confined to this site only. Anyone else having that problem? I'll see if I can clear some things to fix the issue. Not super tech savvy.

Man, those GOA anomalies seem juiced, granted, it's nice to see blocking on both sides of the map. Not sure if Hudson Bay activity will have any impact on NAO placement. Either way, with climo on our side, this could be a great example of how you can still score at this latitude even without cross-polar flow.

Props to you. I take Christmas down mid-January and then leave the 'winter' vibe items out until...basically calendar spring. Winter is my favorite season IF it cooperates.

When the fun and games begin, it wouldn't surprise me if my area was outside where the best entrance/exit jet regions set up. I know it's far out but that's just my gut looking at the upper air and beyond. Growing up I recall several storms that organized just in time for middle TN to pick up a few inches before exploding into something more east of the Apps. As it was said earlier today, the pattern has an old-school vibe to it.

If you're in the mid-Atlantic, you're sittin' right for the first time in a long time. Pattern screams potential especially for those in decadal snow drought territory. If there ever was a time to root for our coastal friends, it's now.

In case you haven't seen DT's overnight vid, worth the watch. 17:26 is worth screen-shotting for posterity...

For real. I'm blue da ba dee da ba di!

Not exactly pertinent to our area, but if you pause the video below at 1:02 (or simply note the thumbnail), you get one of the biggest swings and misses in the history of 30 Day Temperature Outlooks. This forecast ran for the NYC area on 12/24/1993. God, I miss this era...

Why do I feel dirty reading this? Probably just the mountain.

Seeing the 12z EPS/GEFS agree on week 2 cold and a +PNA emerge on modeling today felt like a Christmas present from Mother Nature. How quickly things can change in our field of interest.

Merry Christmas to you! I agree 100% with this post; hence, why AmericanWx has become my 1a forum over the years. Understandably, for snow weenies at our latitude, we must contend with FOMO angst. Unless you're a FL/TX/CA transplant, warm holidays are hardly enjoyable, like a warm beer on a hot day. This riding 6 weeks of cold/dry and near misses to our north. 0.2" of snow IMBY since November 10. Drive 3 hours north and you get 50x. Say what you want about climo, but that's tough sleddin', pun intended. Like New Years resolutions, there's hope with a side of dopamine in anticipating a reset/workable pattern within 14-21 days. As long as we can get a quality two-week window during peak snow climo, I won't complain. Middle TN, in particular, has seen this work for several winters this century where DJF skews mild, but we somehow sneak to average snowfall or higher. Having just been discharged from the hospital with our last little Bag Fry, I've had time to reflect back to exactly 10 years ago when we were gearing down for our first. Unlike this month, December 2015 was pure torch with the pattern almost entirely ENSO dominant, but like this month, we were begging for a sign. The morale of the story has been alluded to in recent days with all the Grinch posters going to town. Even with the atmosphere, what goes up must come down. The question isn't 'if', but 'when'. Ask yourself, starting December 1...would you rather go cold/warm/cold or warm/cold/warm? We'll see how this all shakes out.

I respect the knowledge base for sure. Just not always the way its conveyed or responded to when counters are presented. Either way, I believe it's wise we maintain a diverse portfolio of follows this time of year. Lot of credible voices out there, not all are doom and gloom on this first day of winter.

Happy Winter Solstice, everyone?

This look could be a lot worse.

Curious...has our area ever done well with a strong PV before? Seems the -NAO may not be enough based on what JC is suggesting here...

Hearing you say that gives me bad 2016-17 vibes. Awful winter but there were some breaks if you include March.

Glass half full people be like…just in time for peak snow climo at our latitude. Nice…

Yep! If we can move that darn pig, chances are things will get better. #suey

I remember this storm. I was in 3rd grade. About 6-8" in Brentwood but the wind was howling which led to snow drifts up to my waistline in places!

I think the January thaw can be overly used sometimes, almost in almanac-y fashion. Even the best winters had their patented patterns relax a time or two; granted, I get how a transition into pause can be unsettling. Apart from present timing, I'm not bummed about a reload due to its necessity and how much we've historically benefited from them. Assuming the upcoming warm spell is overhyped, I could see monthly temps verifying close to average for most, maybe a little above average for west/middle TN. Also, I agree with the idea we'll flip cold at some point in January. May not be seasonal climax level but perhaps the start of a stairstep into glory. I know for me, times like these latch my hopes to analogs. For instance, if you like second half loaded winters, our latitude is a place to be as we've seen plenty of them the past decade (I.e. 2014-15 and 2020-21). Those examples saw some gnashing of teeth in the first half before things went gangbusters in the second. Not to suggest this winter is like those winters or anything we've seen the past decade. Certainly, this year feels unique already with our closest saving grace being on the Atlantic side, not the Pacific. Go back and review past winter threads and you'll see how the PNA/WPO/EPO were highly discussed along with the MJO. Per Michael Scott, oh, how the turned tables. Whatever transpires in the short term, let the record show I don't ask for much but amplification, volatility, and any west-based retrograding on those strat/Atlantic teleconnections. Winters with trackable systems within multi-week ebb and flows are my favorite.

Yeah, they aren't as torchy up close. All the Heat Miser posts going around...people sometimes lose sight of what is based in probability versus departure. We're so tailored to extremes if we can't have a blizzard, we want the beach. No one wants to talk about 41-41 weather that lacks a high draft pick and no guarantee of the playoffs. I could be wrong, but I think we'll see a return of amplification in January even if it's not so defined right now. As for 11 days from now, I really don't anticipate Christmas Day being a redux of 2016 or 2021. Both those dates had highs well into the mid/upper 70s around these parts. The latter example had that light switch turn around New Years when we went severe weather mode to winter weather mode in a few days. I remember that stretch fondly as my wife and I were getting Jubilee moved from the Centennial NICU to the Vanderbilt NICU. I had shorts and sweaters packed! xD

Leaving this as more of an open-ended question. Are decadal warming patterns being over integrated into seasonal outlooks and extended D14-30 forecast windows? The notion pops up every October for me when I review NOAA's winter outlook and note how so much of the country is plastered in orange and red. Not a hypothesis per se, but a suspicion about warm biases in the micro overly influenced by climate progression at large. Probably way more case by case then I'm making it, granted, the way my memory interlocks with recent experiences, it seems more torch previews have needed scale backs than the other way around.