*Flash*

18z NAM would be great for west/middle TN especially north of 40, but with so many outcomes on the table, I'm not sure where to lean right now.

SouthernWx is taking James Spann to town over his Euro-AI post on social media last hour.

Really REALLY rooting for a western adjustment. No weekend hope for my locale..but given the timing, I would love to take a plateau jaunt to a place that benefits from typical orographic lift. Monterey/Crossville...preferably no more east than that.

PSA Reminder: All models are wrong, some are...that's right...useful. Even clown maps can be beneficial in signaling a storm or pattern's ceiling, laugh at them we may. Sometimes, we just got to zoom out and appreciate we're smack-dab in the best 7-month stretch of the year (10/1-4/30). Plus, we're looking at net positive trends approaching peak winter climo. That should keep our forum hopefully optimistic the next few weeks, barring anything unforeseen.

As long as it doesn't involve 'orange' juice (I.e. AN) on the temp-side, I'll take whatever the STJ can offer. CMC Ens #12 and #16 look pretty darn good.

Agreed. I feel moderately secure in the temp department, which is more often the bane for our tracking pleasures. Drought is the fly in the ointment as has been pointed out. Just give me some moisture fetch somewhere and I'll take my chances on high ratios...or if my locale can't score, cook up some 3-6" action up on the plateau and I'll take the fam to Monterey. Seriously, just give us some flakes, Mother Nature. My kids literally asked me this morning if I could ask Siri for some snow. I cried a little inside. I so wish it was that easy.

Will be interesting to see if our forum sees one last hurrah during the second week of March. We've seen it before!

I don't have anything meaningful to add right now...

https://giphy.com/gifs/hd-quality-TJPQBOfPGpgmQ

i agree. Gotta like the fact we have two shots at a decent dog. Hopefully, the entire viewing area can get at least to seasonal climo snow totals before February. Might be too much to ask...but suddenly the ceiling is there.

Thanks for the swift response, Coach. I was kinda picking up on this vibe. Unless western trends are noted, it sure seems I'll need to head east at some point this month. Rooting for the ICON!

Do you have charts for Nashville?

I was about to say. That 12z suite is looking...sweet! Plus, DT just updated his FB profile pic to Snow Dog Holmes! Always a good sign... #woofwoof

More west/southern digging…trends I’m rooting for!

I was about to say. Give me some 2003 or 1988 juice with that.

Agreed. MJO phase and strength matters, but ePac anomaly placements, polar strat evolution, arctic blocking…they all have a say too. Right now, my concern is not in winter feeling like winter rest of the month…but rather if we'll get future troughs to dig deep and sync with the STJ. The emergence of fantasy “big dogs” gives me some hope.

BAM doing some painful backtracking on X this morning. Yikes!

If a Modoki situation emerges in the Pacific, I wouldn't be surprised to see early March* open for business in the upper south, though obviously this is 100% speculation. Overall, I think confidence is growing the second half of winter will be more active. *I'll have to review the CF6s; however, if memory serves, I think March 1-15 is better for snow in Nashville than December 1-15. I know climo winter is December 1-February 28/29, but I think calendar window makes more sense in terms of our snow window.

The BNA UHI is getting worse at a rapid rate, so I think assessing rural areas for historical rankings makes more sense at this point. In the coming years, I expect BNA to see more top 5 rankings while outlying areas only crack the top 10.

That 0z Euro run was essentially the prophetic manifestation of Lucy and the football. Didn’t mean to call it so soon. Not getting discouraged yet, especially since modeling is struggling more than it has in recent years.

Phew, those contours are thicc. Nice to see a clown map on the board.

12z GEFS went colder as well. Solid trends though I expect Lucy to come out at 18z or 0z.

I know it doesn't impact east TN, but I'll take what the 6z AI Euro is suggesting for 1/13/26. Decent 2-3" for west/northwest middle TN on that run. Hopefully some mischief is being sniffed out here.

If this ends up being another I-44 winter, this will be one of the most unique ways we've gotten there.

BAM doing [what appears to be] some backpedaling this morning. Could this be the beginning of #wintercancel2026? Facetiousness aside, I get why transparency is important when discussing risk/what could go wrong, though if the 0z Euro Det is on to something, then yeah, extended PV placement will be a concern and thus, the alignment of historically favorable teles would simply result in seasonably cool as opposed to substantial cold. We're still in the land of monitoring trends so hopefully people don't overreact today. If I was a betting man (thank God, I am not), I would be tempted to take plus money on the bulk of my 2025-26 wintry precip coming via overrunning. Knowing our mean luck, by the time all things MJO, AAM, etc. sort out, we'll have the SE ridge flexing its muscle again. BAM Weather on X: "Here is a PERFECT example of how a very ideal blocking pattern can yield nothing in return for cold. EPS and AI on the top 10-15 day GEFS and AI on the bottom 10-15 day Aside from the EPS AI the other 3 datasets see no true cold air and the reason for the DESPITE the -EPO/+PNA https://t.co/mAcdc7fS8R" / X