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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    In summary, I received around 0.5" of total sleet/freezing rain accretion over 3 waves this week. The middle wave late Tuesday was the big one as it brought half that total and triggered a rare ISW for Dickson county. We should start to melt out later today.
  2. *Flash*
    OHX has a fear of being wrong and it shows. If a WWA had severe criteria layers, I'd certainly think this is an 'enhanced risk'.
  3. *Flash*
    As a Dickson county resident, they need to extend that ISW eastward a few counties. They are ultra conservative so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't budge. That quarter inch ice line is going to verify east of the TN River regardless.
  4. *Flash*
    Thanks, all. I'm just curious per Jax's post (always solid by the way ). I still have the 2005-06 winter analog in my mind though I'd have to check to see if there was an ENSO fade/transition that year. I believe February 2006 was amplified and has oscillating warm and cold stretches. I'm hoping if we get some mild intrusions, they are short-lived. Call me a little gunshine as I'm concerned this winter will make like 2016-17/2018-19/2019-20 which had bad January's AND February's for the midstate. Granted, for my locale, I probably should be more focused on the short term. Over/under is 0.19.5 of total ZR QPF for the week. I'll take the under for now.
  5. *Flash*
    I'd say this at this point...the frozen QPF axis is relatively known. It will be interesting to see if any of the models trend juicier overnight...
  6. *Flash*
    I agree with you, Carver. I don't such a dramatic last-second trend that takes all of middle TN out of the game. Maybe southern middle gets taken out but that's all I can imagine.
  7. *Flash*
    So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct?
  8. *Flash*
    Does anyone have the Memphis AFD link handy by chance?
  9. *Flash*
    Good point; however, I think even with the northern last-minute adjustment, the southern net will allow WWA's to be posted along and north of 40 at least for middle TN. I hate saying that b/c it's so cliche but I could see that scenario unfolding. Side note: One of these days, OHX's over-conservative approach is going to bite them. Not saying their latest write-up is wrong at all though I am saying I look forward to their next serving of crow. To the public they take any forecast and make it sound so blah. It's irritating to me. Flash vent over. Carry on.
  10. *Flash*
    If you can't beat em, join 'em...
  11. *Flash*
    I like the GFS' moxy of late. Just concerned the Euro may be painting a more realistic solution for middle TN. Not a huge ran of ice but I'll take a wintry mix over just plain ol' cold rain.
  12. *Flash*
    So true! Ensembles have been generally cooler than the deterministic. Can't live run to run on deterministics alone.
  13. *Flash*
    My gut instinct...a little bit of both. Raw memory applied...some of the most memorable February's were amplified and variable. 2003/2015*/2021...maybe not so much but certainly 1996/2011 for middle TN. Either way, I think most of us would take a solid two-week stretch at any point between now and March 15 after a lost January. As bad as 2015-16 was, all it took was Jonas to make up the difference...granted the ENSO was radically different. Bottom line: Our windows don't have to be large for us to capitalize. Fingers crossed, we'll get into a battle zone so we can score some threat threads at the very least. *Speaking of winter 2014-15, I remember thinking around 1/31/15 that winter was over for our area (actually snow chased up past Mount Vernon that day to scratch the snow withdrawal itch). Then the bottom fell out by mid-February for a couple rounds of snow/ice. Especially for northern middle TN/southern KY, February 2015 was a much bigger hit than February 2021.
  14. *Flash*
    Taking the kiddos to southern IL Wednesday. Does anyone from that area know of any good sledding hills/destinations? Thanks in advance!
  15. *Flash*
    Taking the kiddos to southern IL Wednesday. Does anyone from that area know of any good sledding hills/destinations? Thanks in advance!
  16. *Flash*
    Yep! Taken verbatim, that's WWA criteria for northern middle TN but barely. The gradient is really steep on the SE side of the transition zone. Upper plateau looks to be sitting better on the GFS compared to the 0z Euro. Trying to figure out if I chase to Mount Vernon or Evansville next Wednesday.
  17. *Flash*
    Thanks, Carver. Still hoping the 24-26th system brings some fun and games for N/NW portions of our forum. Per the latest Euro, I'm still not giving up hope.
  18. *Flash*
    Thinking about doing a potential Nashville (TN) to Nashville (IN) snowchase next week. I know a threat is still several days out but wanted to gauge local confidence before confirming any plans. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023012000&fh=240&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=
  19. *Flash*
    Not at a place where I can check modeling. Is west/mid TN in play for the 25th?
  20. *Flash*
    Not to conjure up bad memories for some on this forum but Happy 20th Anniversary of the January 16, 2003 event. Hard to believe it's been that long. I don't know if there's a poll question on here...but for middle TN, would you take Winter Storm Jonas, any snow from 2010/2011 or the 2003 storm? As much as I like surprises, give me Jonas all day long. I think we as a metro were able to apply lessons learned from '03 and '11 and fared much better in '16.
  21. *Flash*
    West/central TN can work with a +AO but that combo...yeahhh, not so much. If you had a strong enough +PNA or -EPO, we've seen that overcome a +AO/+NAO for our region. Windows will eventually come...but I wonder if they'll be the separate week-long variety as opposed to a 2+ week type.
  22. *Flash*
    DT sounds super defeated in this video. I know his perspective is largely Hampton Roads based. It's been rough but he's talking like there's no light on the horizon.
  23. *Flash*
    Per Carver's post on Friday, CFS laughs in the face of anyone hoping for a #wintercancel. Per Chris Bailey on kyweathercenter: "The more I look at the setup ahead, the more I think my winter forecast is going to be wrong. I was going for the earlier start than normal to spring. The upcoming pattern has more of a late winter vibe from February 2021. My winter analogs had the past two winters on the list. So far, the first part of winter has been a battle between the two. Both featured some second half of winter fun and games. Obviously, no one wants a repeat of what February of 2021 brought and I’m not saying that’s ahead. I’m saying the setup for a prolonged period of winter weather that lasts into early spring is showing up."
  24. *Flash*
    Glad there’s still a modicum of hope on the horizon. Crazy to think it’s just January 7. I keep living two weeks in the future in a pattern like this.
  25. *Flash*
    Yeah, I'm still optimistic we'll see some fun 'n games in February at the very least. Just don't mention SOI around Webber.
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