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*Flash*

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Everything posted by *Flash*

  1. *Flash*
    Took half the kiddos to Cookeville. About an inch but it went a long way. Wasn't too wet and had plenty of crunch. Roadways, primary and secondary, were fantastic so it was a great day to get out. Probably a quarter inch back in the Bluff as we left around 9 am but it's all gone now except shady areas.
  2. *Flash*
    More fun from Bobby: “4 pm Update 1/18 for Middle Tennessee winter Weather later tonight and Sunday morning. We get into the left exit region of that 100 kt speed max in the overnight hours tonight into Sunday morning. The latest forecast soundings have found more moisture than previous runs. I now think 1/2 inch with up to 1 inch looks possible in the Nashville area. 1 inch along the plateau but upwards of 2 possible in the Upper Cumberland. That 10 model blend looks good to me for amounts through 6 pm Sunday. CAMS blend is also good. Freezing almost down to Kuttawa Kentucky at 3 pm 1/18. I'll do another update this evening.”
  3. *Flash*
    Health pending, I’ll likely be in Monterey tomorrow so I’ll follow up with some ground truth this time tomorrow.
  4. *Flash*
    This is going to be an historic storm for places that may not see snow for a decade (or more) after this. At ths point, I'd rather not see a northwest trend to keep the proximity tease subdued. I know a 'L' is a 'L' but losing by 30 is easier for this guy to swallow than at the buzzer. On a side note, it would be fun if this forum had a poll option. I imagine we'll see some guidance corrections today: Would you rather be in Birmingham, Atlanta, or Charlotte at this stage of the game?
  5. *Flash*
    12z HRRR paints a slightly more realistic picture than it was yesterday, though there are still several 1" bands on the map. The plateau looks good to me. Hopefully, we can capitalize on what will be the mid-state's best chance for snow during the next 7 days... s
  6. *Flash*
    Typical of them. I get playing it safe but lacking testicular fortitude is another issue altogether. Seems to me at least part of the plateau will be worth of a WWA.
  7. *Flash*
    Bringing it back to the weekend, Chris Bailey issued his First Call map but hinted at tweaks…
  8. *Flash*
    Per Bobby Boyd: “3 pm Update for snow potential this weekend 1/18-19. I blended several models, including 18Z 12km NAM. It's looking more likely for light accumulating snow in Middle Tennessee Saturday night/very early Sunday as we get into the left exit region of the upper jet. My Tempest blend has it snowing in Nashville from 9 pm Saturday evening 1/18, until 3 am 1/19, Sunday morning. This time frame expanded considerably over the last 3 runs.”
  9. *Flash*
    This weekend is essentially 'Operation: Can I Buy an Inch?' to go along with my icebox conditions? The 18z HRRR offers some hope...
  10. *Flash*
    That was some front! I want to say my area got about 1.5" out of that. Not much...but then again, I would gladly take a repeat.
  11. *Flash*
    How accurate has the RAP performed in the short term this year?
  12. *Flash*
    I like your optimism. Personally, I'm hoping I can chase to northern AL, Sewanee, and/or Chatt and not have to go much further.
  13. *Flash*
    Happy for our Carolina friends but ouch, this hurts.
  14. *Flash*
    Yeahhh, I don’t view bitterly cold/dry patterns as great.
  15. *Flash*
    I want to say winter 2004-05 (December 2004) was a big one for those areas as well. Another tough winter locally as we missed the pre-Christmas storm to our NW. Paducah’s market got slammed. Couldn’t buy an inch that year.
  16. *Flash*
    2013-14. So cold in Nashville, we only got 1.9” the whole year.
  17. *Flash*
    I’d love that. Not sure how the RGEM is performing this year. Regardless, my expectation for the midstate west of the plateau is set to post-frontal flurries late Saturday night with depleted moisture by the time the colder air arrives.
  18. *Flash*
    Amen. The broader our demographic, the better and more educational our forum experience becomes.
  19. *Flash*
    100%. I can appreciate the eye-candy appeal of the operational GFS, but I can't take it seriously right now. Like any sane model fan, I'm stickin' with ensembles/NBM for now as we wait to see how the weekend plays out. As it's been said, modeling is struggling with the extreme cold with more factors compromising the inputs. I don't have evidence handy, but I imagine cold advisory-type chill has more often involved suppression/lighter snows where existing snowpack (not new) was the snow that benefited. As of now, I'd be more surprised if 3" didn't verify somewhere within 3 hours of my location.
  20. *Flash*
    I like it. Middle TN north of 40 is outside looking in at this point but positive trends are my friends. That said, if I have to throw in the towel, I want E Ten peeps to be in the trowal.
  21. *Flash*
    Sure looks like I will be driving south for a snowchase next week - first time in this direction since February 2015!
  22. *Flash*
    Wait, so it's a water bed?
  23. *Flash*
    Yeah, we're going to need a NW trend with that one. A 100-150 mile jaunt should suffice
  24. *Flash*
  25. *Flash*
    About 4.5-5" in the Bluff. I expect slightly higher totals to come out of central Williamson, maybe some of the higher elevations in Davidson. I don't recall snowless conditions since the event got going here around 6 am CT. I mentioned last night on my Facebook weather page how I thought 6-8" was a little bullish and that 4-6" with locally higher amounts was arguably a better call. I think that's where the non-warm-nosed sections of midstate is heading.
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