*Flash*

Winter Storm Watches posted for west and middle… 727 FXUS64 KOHX 210450 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 - High confidence a major winter storm will bring travel impacts this weekend. Ice may cause some power outages, mainly south of I-40. Stay tuned for the latest. - Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts. - Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain. .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Wednesday will begin with thickening clouds and chilly temperatures, although not nearly as chilly as we experienced Tuesday morning. Temps will warm pretty quickly as southwest wind kick in with some gusts over 25 mph. A weak system will move in with a good chance for light rain showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. This system will bring all-liquid with no wintry precip concerns. Behind Wednesday's system, high pressure will move in for Thursday with a pretty nice day. Skies will be mainly sunny with near normal temperatures. This will be a good day to complete your preparations for this weekend's wintry conditions. Things will change Friday as an Arctic cold front drops into the area, setting the stage for our well-advertised winter storm. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Here is a review of the scenario: an upper level trough will be situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja region eastward on Saturday. The amount of energy coming out of the southwest and amount of phasing between the northern and southern streams will impact the surface system and amount of warmadvection up into Middle Tennessee. The strength of the cold air mass coming from the north will also affect the moisture and temperature profiles. So, a lot going on here and still a lot of very possible outcomes. The latest NBM data looks generally similar to yesterday's in terms of 3/6/9 inch snow probabilities and 0.25" ice potential. This means a high-end, mainly snow event along and north of I-40. For areas south of I-40, still a significant snow accumulation potential but more of a wintry mix with potential for sleet and freezing rain. The NBM trends will need to be watched as we now have a couple of models showing a stronger warm nose building up from the south. The 18Z ECMWF and 00Z NAM are showing the 850 freezing line pushing up near I-40 on Saturday. We still think an all or mostly snow event is unfolding for areas along and north of I-40. but south of I-40 we may need to message increasing concerns for ice. If it warms enough for appreciable freezing rain, then glaze on trees and power lines will increase the risk for power outages. If the warmth is just enough for sleet, that will not impact trees and power as much, but it will make a travel mess while substantially limiting snow totals. All of this said, based on probabilities for significant winter wx amounts and impacts, we will likely hoist a Winter Storm Watch later tonight or Wednesday morning after collaboration with WPC and our neighboring offices. Our key messages are: high confidence in winter weather with potentially major travel impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make preparations and plan to stay home unless you must travel. We are growing more concerned about ice with possible power outages for areas south of I-40. South of I-40 is where the biggest questions exist. Precip type will determine how much freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow falls. Whatever falls is likely to stick around and impact travel for several days with cold air locked in place. Temperatures for some areas will stay below freezing through midweek.

You're good, Itchy. Our hopeless hopium is the real enemy. Can't wait for my quarter inch of ice!

Grrrr…

I figured. It would just be cool to tell my kids there was a time when OHX had the testicular fortitide to mark us in an 'Extreme' category. Thank goodness MEG and MRX have that.

Is there one of these for Middle yet?

And northern Middle TN as well. The southern adjustment gives me some added confidence.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access pull the Euro-AI Ensemble snow total plumes for Huntsville?

Right now, I'm thinking 6-8” of combined snow/ice for my location. That will likely adjust in short time.

Can anyone with WeatherBELL access the 12z Euro-AI ensemble plumes for Huntsville?

Not to mention wayyy too many reposts from those with little to no credibility. Blows my mind.

Gotcha. I'm just curious what the south did to hurt them, lol.

Man, BamWx is really getting defensive on X. It's like they want us to ask, “what snow?”

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me.

Just my first weather app glance of the today on my iPhone. Bad data ingestion, no doubt.

They have a long history of being gun-shy for whatever reason.

The Euro AI solution is troubling, and I hope it's wrong somehow. I’m less concerned about less snow and more concerned about more ice! Someone is going to get agnarly ice storm out of this, and I hope it's not our forum.

What the!?!

The amount of instantly recognizable bangers on that list makes me giddy. Smash.

Well, crap. I have a one-month-old. Not sure how that's going to work. Maybe a Red Bull-IV. That might do it.

Yeah, I remember crunching the #’s late February 2014. In terms of wasted cold, 2013-14 stands alone at the #1 spot for BNA since records started. Middle TN has seen redemption in the years since. But even that year…I got to experience 2’ over 4 chases.

Nice summary. Hoping most of us can score before Fab Feb. Signals are there but will the fun be too far east for west/middle? That's my main concern. Obviously, with the WAA and dry air issues, no plateau chase for me this morning (kids are pissed off but what I can I say/do?), so hopefully I can do some traveling next week as needed. Sunny 30s is the same level as cold rain to me. Plus, kids don't want to be out in the cold unless they can build a snowman. Hard to find words, especially for young people in describing why this winter has not cooperated. Bottom Line: In the past 15 years, only 2012-13 has been worse than what we've seen through 1/17, at least for middle. Yeah, I know the famous winter of 2014-15 got off to a slow start; however, I highly doubt we see a redux of that February 1 - March 15 time frame. I might be missing some other slow starts.

I mean...they could extend that purple line southwest by 50 miles. Wouldn't hurt at this range. Smh. Also, fun/random fact: Ferris Bueller's best friend...his name is Cameron Frye (played by Alan Ruck), which so happens to be my name, just without the 'e' on the end. While I was born the same year the movie came out, contrary to local conspiracies, I wasn't named after the character. 0:34 in the clip below gets me every time... https://youtu.be/LOMO_eSGcU4?si=38NB8nmLgHGa8XN6

If this subforum is Hogwarts, you, sir, are Gif-findor.