The 4 Seasons

Here's some futility stats across the region that i posted in the New England forums...looks like NYC is still #1 all-time on the season. If there's any errors let me know. Gonna have to add 0.1 from the snowfall this morning but the CLI isn't out yet so ill wait for that for the airports. Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6" JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

Some futility stats across the region...hopefully no errors this time but let me know. Station ID | Snowfall to date | Normal snowfall to date | % snowfall to normal to date | rank if no more snow fell | snowfall needed to tie record ALY | 41.9" | 48.6" | 86% | #16 | N/A ORH | 31.8" | 60.9" | 52% | #9 | N/A BDL | 19.6" | 43.8" | 45% | #10 | N/A BOS | 11.9" | 41.0" | 29% | #4 | N/A PVD | 11.5" | 31.4" | 37% | #5 | N/A BDR | 4.9" | 27.6" | 18% | #1 | 3.3" LGA | 3.3" | 25.5" | 13% | #2 | N/A NYC | 2.2" | 25.9" | 8% | #1 | 0.6" JFK | 1.7" | 22.2" | 8% | #2 | N/A ISP | 3.4" | 26.3" | 13% | #2 | N/A

Yeah Storm 1 is non-starter similar to GEM. Storm 2 is an absolute bomb but at this range for the op does it matter? the EC/EPS was gorgeous at this range 2 days at 00Z/Sunday. Maps are fun to look at though, its all we got lol

Yeah, that looked like this one does on the EC a couple days ago. I'm not in love with either, but not ready to write anything off yet, were just too far out for that.

Hopefully they are injecting it with steroids, but i dont see it on wxbell or pivotal either. I think we already know what its going to be based on the UKMET/GGEM...doubt it'll be anything good

Yep. The GFS is on some shit right now, i have zero faith in that evolution and like you said seems to be trending to the other foreign guidance. The evolution and track just screams thread the needle, march with marginal airmass and perfectly timed and positioned low bombing out. Right now i'd give it a 10/90 against for a significant snowfall across SNE. It's worth watching obviously but confidence is very low.

The 18Z EPS is definitely better than 12Z, a lot more members hanging back NW. The spread has definitely increased. H5 better than 12Z, closed low is NW as well

Winter 22/23 Progression...

Mar 2nd and Mar 3-4th 2019. At least here. We had a 3-6er little critter, then 36 hours later we had the 10-15 4"/hr wet snow overnight bomb. I just went back and looked at the maps. Seems your area only got 1.5" ish first storm, and 6" the second so you didn't do so well. Mar 2018 was the epic "1 nor'easter per week" where we got 4 nor'easters all separated by about a week. Mar 2nd - far interior and far west CT 3-8" everyone else rain Mar 8th - whole CT wet snow bomb 6-28" Mar 13-14th - east bomb with a hole in the 91 area W CT warning snow, E CT 12-24" Mar 22nd - coastal scraper, bust, 3-6 S CT and 1-3 N CT

Scenario 3: Model locks onto storm at D7. Stays the same or slightly better for a while then. Rug pull. Here's a zoomed in view of the EPS. Some really psychotic members in there. 49 south of LI?

Final map for snow & sleet totals in CT

god, dont remind me of this thing

LOL i didn't even read your post before i did mine, sensing a theme here.

Trace. 36. light drizzle. Make it stop, for the love of god

If anyones curious heres what i have so far, i have to wait a bit for more reports to role in and will refine it but this gives you an idea of some of the 30 or so reports that came in.

If anyone has any snow and sleet totals for CT please let me know

Is that on desktop or mobile? I gotta say their mobile app is probably the worst app in existence. Their support number on it is so old that it takes you to a scam hotline

Rain 35

99% Rain. 39. Occasional flake or pellet

New thread worthy?

Same its gone here and 51.

HRRR looks pretty damn cold and S in it's long term clown range fwiw, similar to the RGEM

It's no surprise that BDRs all-time record is 29.6 and NYC is 28.6. Obviously, NYC goes way back into the 1800s so if we compare apples to apples and go back to 1947, NYC average at 1947 is 26.9. So that's a 2.7 differential between NYC and BDR going back to the same year...which is just ridiculous that mid-town Manhattan has only 2.7" less snowfall than coastal SW CT imo.

we had a decent 4-8"er yesterday so that boosted a lot of our seasonal totals 100% LOL BDR is BS btw, super low and underdone as usual, but i included it since its official. But they reported 3.8 yesterday when everywhere W N and E of them had 5-6.5" not to mention a report right in BDR of 5.5"