The 4 Seasons

yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z

Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well

I expected it to tick east

Yeah thats gonna be ugly for CT

Got a new toy to play with. Finally got around to make a SNE, CT/MA/RI map. So i'll be able to some forecasts and analysis for this region now. Too bad this winter sucks...

We call that the Tom Cruise white and wet special.

I have zero expectations this will look anything like it does now in 24 hours. I'm just hoping to grab a quick 1 or 2 Friday night and maybe 4 or 6" of slop next mon/tue. But this season, even that is probably pushing it. Knowing 22/23 ill get a little bit of snow in the air, white rain friday night and a windy rainer next Monday. 8.9" on the season 75 days without any measurable snowfall in the heart of winter One 3.9", a quick 0.4" late Feb and 4.6" Feb 27-28 2.1" on the roads all season Slightly above the all-time rat of 01-02

GFS looks good for the Methuen area ....

Pivotal has 925s fyi

i expect nothing but a free pass when im doing 90 in a 45 and free EZ passes over the Tappan Zee

These could just be short term trends and models are seeing something that could just as easily reverse tomorrow, we got a lot runs to go so well see where were at tomorrow. But for now everything at 00z looks good for a few inches in CT away from the immediate coast.

A lot of that qpf at the start looks like mostly rain and when it does transfer over its still gonna be pretty warm in the city itself, i doubt they get lower than mid 30s, unless it comes down really hard for a while

Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look

so with that being said, laughing at the euro but the GFS swings from nearly nothing 0.03 to 0.18 to 0.51 qpf for each run since 12Z. Even worse swings than the euro..thats what i mean by theres really no bar out there.

Holy fuckin shit, what did the GFS just do? i thought the 18Z ECMWF was off its rocker but the GFS said ill see your call and i'm all in.

No.

because its a waste of money, electricity and server space? i have no idea why that thing is still being run, it baffles the mind

Yeah thats probably the best run yet for CT for the worst model (save NAVGEM that no one, minus George cares about)

I been sittin tight for over 3 months now

i know that gets you rock hard, but have a little sympathy for the rest of us..

It is, but thats not saying much either. I mean you couldnt honestly put any model above it right? Maybe you could argue the GFS but that would be it. And my opinion its still #2 but maybe not by as much as it used to be.

Taking notes from the NAM and its wild swings Speaking of which, the 3k is practically a whiff

That was a big jump NE for this time lead on the euro, wow

Looks good

and even for them it sucks a big one