The 4 Seasons

? Their maps have done nothing but gone up. I think you're reading the ranges wrong. N half of CT is the 18-24" range and southern half is 12-18".... not 12-18/8-12. you are on the boarder of 18-24 in that map.

Clear every hour for maximum snowfall amounts in your area or county. Make sure you measure in the grass for extra depth (adds an inch or so). If no grass is available then measure on top of old snow. Maximum measurements occur at a 45 degree angle, so that is important, use protractor if necessary. If there is blowing and drifting, find the deepest drift and measure that. Thats the basic rules.

If we are comparing this to PDII directly it won't be as major as the big cities from DC to BOS wont be in the 15-30" range. Pretty sure PD2 is #1 all time for BOS. So doubtful it makes it up there regionwide with amount of people it's impacting and very big snowfall amounts. For SNE and much of the northeast, it's a big dog save maybe the S Coast.

go to winter weather and click on probabilistic snowfall forecasts and the new maps are there...they are like 30 minutes more recent than the one you're looking at.

hmmm...i wonder who that hotdog represents

Yeah Jan 24 NE MA, Mar 23 for Berkshires/ N. ORH, Jan 22 for E/SE MA, Feb 21 for C/W CT

TEB moderate snow

yeah you can see it on CC making it to the southern part of the county racing NE, long ways away. BWI reporting 1/8th S+ for the past couple hrly obs

Some snowfall obs so far...

If this isn't a KU, i don't know what is. Wild looking storm snowing right now from Texas to NJ.

yea it seems like 80% of the time its tick tick down, at least it seems..may just be my bias.

Had a little time to do an updated final call overnight before the storm starts. Pretty much unchanged except flattened out the 8/12" lines across NJ and brought the range up from 12-16 to 12-18 and included W Ulster in 18-24" now. Good luck guys. Edit: fixed an error with ranges at the bottom

Had some time to do a final call overnight tonight before the storm. Made some slight adjustments otherwise its pretty close. Brought the 12" line down slightly and flattened it out more W-E, increased 12-16 to 18" and had enough confidence to introduce new ranges where the was text before for 18-24" in NE MA and Nrn Berkshires around Savoy and Florida. This is a historic snowstorm and more certainly will be a KU. This will be the first storm to make into the historic storms archive since those two storms Jan 6-7th 2024 and Feb 13th 2024.

more than that now. 2 feet for BOS in the 24-30 range for all of Essex into BOS, a little wild.

Still, a few days ago a total whiff was a possibility. Isnt 8-12 not good still? lets say bottom of end of that, 8". Still a good event considering congrats NC/VA with cirrus here. No way it doesnt snow several inches on the front end for many hours.

maybe hit 60 there?

2nd update and likely final call. We are still about 24hrs out so will do an update before the storm if anything major changes. We split the initial 8-16" range up to 8-12/12-16. Less on the s. coast and most in NE MA and Berkshires. Some thought on the forecast BUFKIT ratios initially start high and drop off closer to 10:1 as the warm air intrudes, this is less of an issue well inland where ratios will be a bit higher. Went with about 12-14:1 Strong H7 frontogensis tomorrow afternoon/eve will yield a period of 1-3" per hour and move E/NE Models still diverge on how far N the mix line gets but most of the damage will be done (floor of 8"), but went with slightly lower totals and bottom end of the 8-16 range there Definite signals for enhanced snowfall in E/NE MA but didn't feel confident enough to introduce a new range of 16-22, but highest totals likely there...i put that in text Most of snow appears to fall Sunday/Sun Night with any redeveloping snows wrapping around N of the MA boarder and will add to totals there by an inch or two We are probably one of the most conservative fx out there right now, def more so than the NWS. We'll see how today goes and update if needed, still should be a great storm for most w/ widespread 1 foot+. Biggest concern is southern areas.

2nd update and likely final call. We split up the initial range of 8-16" to 8-12" and 12-16". Think the city and LI fit well within 8-12", dont see them getting over a foot despite what the NWS thinks. Some reasons behind this conservative call: Though a lot of qpf falls as snow, many models bring significant warming H7-H8 during the height/back end of storm Ratios on BUFKIT look initially high for many areas but fall to around 10:1 or in some cases a bit lower, went a bit above 10:1 for average Excellent frontogensis will produce rates of 1-3" per hour for a while then move N/NE of the area Went with a blended approach mainly GFS/EC/Canadian and threw out warm outliers, NAM not used. 8-12" amounts most common with 12"+ well N/W of the city but think around 16 is the cap Dry air moves in and shuts off pcp any redeveloping snows will likely be N of MA boarder/dutchess/ulster after midnight/early monday If any significant changes happen today well do an update before the storm as we still about 24hrs out.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-22-23-2005 I hated that storm, technically we got like 16" but it felt like 6. S- the whole time. And I look at the radar and it's like how did anyone in CT get over 10 looks like a 6-10 event at the most based on the radar.

jesus i remember this site from college - still called the ETA in the mid 2000s, haven't been there in years. Nothing loads though.

doubtful. but a lot change in 24 hours. Me and @Sey-Mour Snoware on the same page completely with this one. I'm sure N CT will be in the 12+ area. lmao, i always forget about that model, i said that a couple storms ago too. They love the HREF and esp the NBM.

i was just thinking the same thing. The watches encompass the whole event, i dunno my guess is those maps imply event total regardless of the timestamp at the top. Litchfield county? Definitely would be in the higher end of that range and will probably be in the 12-16 final call. I dont see how northern CT, esp Litchfield makes it out of this with anything less than a foot...but 8" is definitely the basement, i think the chances of a rug pull or near rug pull are virtually zero.

First call from yesterday morning, about 72 hours out. Not changing or updating this am. Likely will be splitting up into 8-12/12-16 with the 8-12 running north of NYC/LI into S/SE Coast. Question is how far north we'll end up bringing that line and if it makes it into Connecticut. For now started with wider range to account for uncertainty with track + snow/mix line, ratios and Monday's light snow. There will be a full SNE/Tri-State final map as well as CT.

Looks almost like a copy and past of the NBM stuff. I knew they were going to go big when i saw the NBM yesterday. Then i read the WSW and its for 6-12 which is extremely confusing to the public when its like half the amounts the maps have. Theyve already started walking those numbers back across NYC/LI and south shore, i suspect that will continue to be the case in the next 24hrs.

This is pretty reasonable.