The 4 Seasons

We got our ceremonious NAM run. Next one will shift it east with white rain and a coating.

Thats a Feb 01 type of explosive shillackin' I would certainly pay 100 for that to happen and i think, after this winter, many of us would

Surprised, you must live at a low elevation or on the southern side bc right at sleeping giant turning right from Mt Carmel Ave to RT10 i could see the rain change to snow right in front of my eyes. It was one of the wildest weather phenomenon i've ever experienced. Right in front of SG/Quinnipiac it was raining then i took right at the light it was snowing big fatties and all snow. I drove back and forth in and out of it twice. I thought maybe the changeover to snow was just happening but when i drove up the hill Todd/West Todd/Gaylord Mt. Road and drove back down 30 minutes later the same thing was occurring. There was a solid coating of snow on RT10 (on the grass and car tops) then a few hundred feet on Mt Carmel Ave all rain. Gaylord Mt. Road right at Broken Arrow at 550FT was gettin sketchy, heavy snow, the roads were completely covered...i was going to drive to prospect but didn't want to risk it in a rear wheel drive car. I posted some pics earlier in this thread from there. They probably got around 2" up there. I saw a report of 1.5" in Hamden from the NWS but dont know where it was exactly. Another report of 3" in Chesire from cocorahs

@tavwtbywhat did you end up with?

Yea its just a first call we wanted to get out there for socials. We'll do a map with exact numbers later tonight, theres just incredible uncertainty right now..the storm has a lot of potential so the ceiling is high. Obviously the better up and in you are the better and Winsted at 1K FT is a great place to be right now. 10 is really the bottom of the range, you have the potential to see 2 feet.

3k is lolz too where do I sign for delivery?

Hey can you post a few 700 FGEN panels from the ecmwf? Pivotal is only for paid and wxbell doesn't have them I wish they did. Probs have gone way up for the 00z cycle. Probably the highest yet for CT out of all the runs 50-60% 6"+ right down to the coast

0.00

OKX wants no parts of this right now, just read their am AFD and the zones for interior southern CT are all rain, not even a mention of snow. Certainly possible but i wouldn't leave out any snow in the forecast, at least go a rain/snow mix at this point. Theyve been on this train though, yesterday they mentioned even if this takes a perfect track right over the BM it would be all rain due to the lack of cold air. Not buying that. In terms of precip accumulations, liquid equivalents of nearly 1.25 - 2" are possible for the event per latest NBM. However, probabilities of >1" in any 6 hour period during the event are less than 10%, indicating low potential for any excessive rainfall issues. Moreover, NBM probabilities of >2" of snowfall (approaching advisory criteria) are maxed out at about 15-25% across the LoHud and SW CT, and less than 10% for NYC, Long Island, northeast NJ and coastal CT. These values have been similar over the past few NBM cycles.

jesus (ct) id give my left nut for 1-2 feet

Radar...

Just took a drive up in the hills of Hamden and the R/S line is very sharp right at 100FT near Sleeping Giant it went from all rain to all snow almost instantly on RT-10. Everything turned white going up the hill and roads became snow covered at about 350FT. Made it to 550FT and there was about an inch of snow OTG and snowing pretty heavily probably at a rate of 1"/hr. All rain in North Haven at 100-200FT and 33F.

Oxc went to all snow and 32 quite a bit colder up there in the hills

Please give a final measurement when it's over that would be very helpful thx

Looking forward to my white rain and wet roads. Totals are going to drop off sharply, likely even within towns like Hamden that range from 0FT to 650FT, but thats impossible to show on a map. I tried to highlight the elevation component with the zones and wording the best i could. Looks like the BDR record will not be in jeopardy for yet another storm.

lol

oh, just asking you usually do overlapping snowfall forecasts 1-3/2-4/3-6, so i figured there was another range in there, never seen a gap before

you said C-2 and 3-6 zones

nothing between 2 and 3?

Looks like BOX even cut back from yesterdays PM update, not sure why...seems a bit low to me given the overnight data.

Yesterday you said 1-3, so it seems you've gone up. The trends the past few runs are definitely positive for CT so i would lean a bit higher but probably not more than C-2 for upwards in NE CT. The hills of NNH and NFF seem the best spot right now for possible advisory snows probably 2-3 there, the coast and valleys are still going to have a hard time accumulating. We'll see what todays runs do, as this could very easily reverse the trend.

Probably, at this point it's certainly possibly this could occur. They need 0.5" right now to tie the record which from what i understand replaces the previous record, but yeah 0.6 to actually break it.

Since its the 5-year anniversary, i thought id post a few images. This was an incredible storm. Pretty much a 6-hour window or maybe even a bit less of heavy snow, several CG strikes locally that sounded like a summer-time severe storm with loud convective claps and snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. We picked up about 13.5" from around 330pm to 930pm. Western CT had a truly historic event with 22-28" while the SE corner got hardly anything with an inch or two, quite the gradient. Here's the updated map i just did a couple months ago....

yeah ive been obsessing over the models all day long and its easy to forget its pretty much right at D5/120hrs out still. I dont think weve ever put out a call >72 hrs except for Dec 2020 when it was about 4/4.5 days because of how strong the consensus was

i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though.