The 4 Seasons

Yep. The GFS is on some shit right now, i have zero faith in that evolution and like you said seems to be trending to the other foreign guidance. The evolution and track just screams thread the needle, march with marginal airmass and perfectly timed and positioned low bombing out. Right now i'd give it a 10/90 against for a significant snowfall across SNE. It's worth watching obviously but confidence is very low.

The 18Z EPS is definitely better than 12Z, a lot more members hanging back NW. The spread has definitely increased. H5 better than 12Z, closed low is NW as well

Winter 22/23 Progression...

Mar 2nd and Mar 3-4th 2019. At least here. We had a 3-6er little critter, then 36 hours later we had the 10-15 4"/hr wet snow overnight bomb. I just went back and looked at the maps. Seems your area only got 1.5" ish first storm, and 6" the second so you didn't do so well. Mar 2018 was the epic "1 nor'easter per week" where we got 4 nor'easters all separated by about a week. Mar 2nd - far interior and far west CT 3-8" everyone else rain Mar 8th - whole CT wet snow bomb 6-28" Mar 13-14th - east bomb with a hole in the 91 area W CT warning snow, E CT 12-24" Mar 22nd - coastal scraper, bust, 3-6 S CT and 1-3 N CT

Scenario 3: Model locks onto storm at D7. Stays the same or slightly better for a while then. Rug pull. Here's a zoomed in view of the EPS. Some really psychotic members in there. 49 south of LI?

Final map for snow & sleet totals in CT

god, dont remind me of this thing

LOL i didn't even read your post before i did mine, sensing a theme here.

Trace. 36. light drizzle. Make it stop, for the love of god

If anyones curious heres what i have so far, i have to wait a bit for more reports to role in and will refine it but this gives you an idea of some of the 30 or so reports that came in.

If anyone has any snow and sleet totals for CT please let me know

Is that on desktop or mobile? I gotta say their mobile app is probably the worst app in existence. Their support number on it is so old that it takes you to a scam hotline

Rain 35

99% Rain. 39. Occasional flake or pellet

New thread worthy?

Same its gone here and 51.

HRRR looks pretty damn cold and S in it's long term clown range fwiw, similar to the RGEM

It's no surprise that BDRs all-time record is 29.6 and NYC is 28.6. Obviously, NYC goes way back into the 1800s so if we compare apples to apples and go back to 1947, NYC average at 1947 is 26.9. So that's a 2.7 differential between NYC and BDR going back to the same year...which is just ridiculous that mid-town Manhattan has only 2.7" less snowfall than coastal SW CT imo.

we had a decent 4-8"er yesterday so that boosted a lot of our seasonal totals 100% LOL BDR is BS btw, super low and underdone as usual, but i included it since its official. But they reported 3.8 yesterday when everywhere W N and E of them had 5-6.5" not to mention a report right in BDR of 5.5"

Going pretty lean and i think even this may be too aggressive. First call so will update if needed.

As of Mar 1

GEFS definitely ticked a bit north/warmer which is no surprise but it still looks like nearly every single member is south or well south of the op with the track of the secondary low. Spreads definitely tightened

Welcome back

Tri-state snowfall totals