The 4 Seasons

Rags to riches that winter. That Jan 24th event is the one that kicked everything off. Before that it was virtually a rat. Except for the interior lucky few from the Nov 26th, 2014 storm. At least this season were off to a good start, mostly speaking for us.

And, hence that is why we have a range...4 up to..8. An average of 6 actually makes perfect sense. So we went from 1-3 to 3-4 to barely made it to 4...to 4.6"? pretty sure that 4.6" report in Southington is you, but i could be wrong. There is another cocorahs report of 6.6 but i left it out to include yours (or someone else on here) Anyways its all good, we don't need to drone on about a past event that has nothing to do with this one. I was just a little shocked to see you say 1-3 when ive been over that event 3-4 times and probably have 3-4 iterations of the CT map alone. I always appreciate you sending me your reports for Southington, all good wolfie. Lets kick this thing west, i know its coming.

OK fair enough but calling it a 1-3 event when the whole state got 4-8 save New london middlsex Co is objectively wrong. The literal only report under 3 was Stonington. Picked up about 6 here. It was pure paste and a very solid base for the long duration snow pack

1-3?? Try widespread 4-8+ warning snow. You are misremembering a bit here. It was wet glop, but a legit storm. I enjoyed this more than that fake blizzard actually. It was a legit costal, check out the sfc animation. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-24-2015

Euro AI was just noise to me, i mean you are really splitting hairs at this time frame to say west or east. It's the same imo.

The S/W trough you see on the last frame of this animation over the M/A & Carolinas is hanging back a bit and digging deeper than the 12Z run and is improving overall. Still dealing with that shit streak over the NE but it is lessing up a bit over the last run from 12Z. Overall these are improvements you want to see for a healthier system that gets a little more developed and is pulled in west a bit, which is exactly what is reflecting at the surface. So yea, its trending better, but still has a bit to go. It's just a few ticks off from being a solid hit for most of SNE. You want to see this happen again at 00z, but if it doesnt, were still within a lead time that things can waffle a bit before they get picked up and move west, it wouldn't take much. Inside of 84/72 hrs its much more important than 100+.

euro came west, still a whiff but improved

Another Foxborough 2002 scenario?

This is still the one to watch for a poss moderate-low end warning event region wide. Maybe we can grab an inch or two on Saturday but the potential ceiling for that is extremely low. And sfc temps are very borderline in areas along the shore.

slight bump NW Besides a few GEFS members, no. AIGEFS also had a few members with bigs hits, but thats about it I'm fine with that run it actually didnt move east at all really, just weaker dynamics and didn't explode like 12Z Still 4-8 across most of CT/MA

GFS gonna disappoint in 30 minutes. I'm just hoping it doesn't go too far east and just a toned down version of 12Z. That was definitely the upper echelon wrn envelop of outcomes. If it goes back to a scraper or whiff i wouldn't be surprised but id bet money it won't look like 12Z

New York City.

We can tell. It's been an absolute brutal stretch overall since the late 2010s (17-18) and even more so the past 3 years (22-23, 23-24, 24-25). If i was in an area in an area that missed those two first snowstorms 12/14 and 12/26 or they didnt hit at all here, id feel the same. So far this winters been off to a very good start here on a B/B+ trajectory.....tbd, but snow cover, total snowfall and temps have all been good-great. Think E MA and most of the area will cash in on a sizable event for this one.

Same with the GEFS, with a slightly better look than EPS with the more DS S/W tilted a bit more negative, it has been trending better. Though the GFS/GEFS/GFS AI/GEFS AI have been the most on board with this system thus far. The member spread is consolidating a lot, though the mean snow hasnt really gone up, theres just a lot more near-misses or slight misses in there now.

why is it always the scooter shit streak

I just wanted to say one thing real quick. There is no problem. I just made an off hand - objective - comment in the beginning of this thread it wasn't antagonistic or anything, saying many got a first snowstorm already (and i include some of MA in that as 3-6" is pretty solid) and Methuen is still waiting. When you said EASTERNMASS weather, i just responded in kind joshing back with all caps. There was no hostility or ill will whatsoever. And the title can be whatever, please let's not qualify every single title with except for and not limited to or whatever. Its nbd. It's all good - trust me. I, as well, do not want to clutter up this thread and make it a dumpster fire like the last one, so let me just contribute this. Will was talking about the AI models, while they shouldn't be used soley or trusted, having them on board this time and at least trending better is a green(er) flag. Here's the last 4-5 cycles of the EC AI and GFS AI.

There's still a ways to go with this, we're not even sub 100hrs yet. It's a threat worth watching and discussing. No need to live and die by every model, every cycle and every run. That said I still think this has a way better chance and likelihood than the 1/15-16 threat that had zero support outside of some GFS op runs. For those creaming over the 12Z GFS just prepare yourself for the 18Z to come to reality a bit.

It started out as CT but i expanded it to all of SNE a couple years ago and Tri-State for the other forum.. so i dont see the problem with that

NEWENGLAND thread title...

I expect maybe a slight improvement from the 12Z euro but it wont look anything like the GFS id bet on that

poor kitty got his thread locked, don't think ive seen that happen before

Lets go. I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting.

ive been saying the same as well. Apparently warm kitty started a thread for that but i could have swore it was for 1-15/16 and he changed the title to 18/19

Euro should be good then, hopefully