The 4 Seasons

pretty much, the AI models have been steady and consistent. Id like to think that was a fluke run but the GEFS jumped off a cliff and jumped way E, the mean cut down significantly.

AIFS 6Z bumped west

you in Mattepoisett now, damn thats a rough spot for snow lovers

really would like to see Euro trend west at 12Z and the ensembles. I dont expect GFS to show hit after hit at this range, waffling happens, having the European suite on board is more important.

Op went east, AI went west go figure

00Z AARP also looked like it would be an absolute nuke past 84. the 00z run, 6z is still coming out

1993 wasnt that bad for E areas. 8.8 from weymouth COOP at the time. obv west was best, but it was a good front ender for nearly everyone except for the Cape

right. and i think thatll give us an idea along with every other single piece of guidance what the ec/eps/ai will do, id be shocked if it were the same or worse.

well both can be true. ill show you in a sec

GEFS looks great, heres the 00Z trend 4-cycles

big improvement, came noticeably west.

yea as long as it tics west id be fine with that even if its a scraper again.

It's coming.

yeah i mean with how bad that thing is, all i look for is an indication of trends, but even that can be questionable with something like the Icon.

your ICON is west, but weak af

Hes absolutely right. The Jan 24th event was the big system in the mid-range...id say about 120hrs +/- 20 hrs, somewhere in that region, it was being modeled as a big dog 12-16"+ event region wide on multiple models, then it fizzled and turned to shit, somewhat. @George001 remembers. I know this stops at Jan 27, but that storm didn't even exist at this point, it was all the first system Jan 24th. I dont have much saved from that event but heres one run.

Rags to riches that winter. That Jan 24th event is the one that kicked everything off. Before that it was virtually a rat. Except for the interior lucky few from the Nov 26th, 2014 storm. At least this season were off to a good start, mostly speaking for us.

And, hence that is why we have a range...4 up to..8. An average of 6 actually makes perfect sense. So we went from 1-3 to 3-4 to barely made it to 4...to 4.6"? pretty sure that 4.6" report in Southington is you, but i could be wrong. There is another cocorahs report of 6.6 but i left it out to include yours (or someone else on here) Anyways its all good, we don't need to drone on about a past event that has nothing to do with this one. I was just a little shocked to see you say 1-3 when ive been over that event 3-4 times and probably have 3-4 iterations of the CT map alone. I always appreciate you sending me your reports for Southington, all good wolfie. Lets kick this thing west, i know its coming.

OK fair enough but calling it a 1-3 event when the whole state got 4-8 save New london middlsex Co is objectively wrong. The literal only report under 3 was Stonington. Picked up about 6 here. It was pure paste and a very solid base for the long duration snow pack

1-3?? Try widespread 4-8+ warning snow. You are misremembering a bit here. It was wet glop, but a legit storm. I enjoyed this more than that fake blizzard actually. It was a legit costal, check out the sfc animation. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-24-2015

Euro AI was just noise to me, i mean you are really splitting hairs at this time frame to say west or east. It's the same imo.

The S/W trough you see on the last frame of this animation over the M/A & Carolinas is hanging back a bit and digging deeper than the 12Z run and is improving overall. Still dealing with that shit streak over the NE but it is lessing up a bit over the last run from 12Z. Overall these are improvements you want to see for a healthier system that gets a little more developed and is pulled in west a bit, which is exactly what is reflecting at the surface. So yea, its trending better, but still has a bit to go. It's just a few ticks off from being a solid hit for most of SNE. You want to see this happen again at 00z, but if it doesnt, were still within a lead time that things can waffle a bit before they get picked up and move west, it wouldn't take much. Inside of 84/72 hrs its much more important than 100+.