The 4 Seasons

After reviewing all the overnight data and the trends we decided to go with 6-12" across CT. This is a first call map and we will likely have at least one more update before the storm to fine tune and pinpoint higher and lower ranges. Highlighted the areas to be on the higher end of the range and possibly 12+ in the NE hills. Don't believe mixing will be enough of factor to hold down amounts in the SE corner to warrant a lower range (i.e. 3-6) but figure they will probably be on the lower end. Definitely think OKXs map is a bit too low there in that regard. Once the 12Z and 00Z suite roll out today ill take a look at bufkit and fine tune the ranges. These two maps are just for our general public on social media, pretty sure everyone here knows the deal. Just thought they came out pretty cool...photoshop is fun.

And i always reciprocate.

Just shocked. I've literally never seen you post unless its unfavorably snowy run or its going to warm up to melt it all way.

For you folks curious about the NWS. The 3 CWAs in SNE have updated their maps.

i dont know how you do it. running in the cold is the worst. id power through the cold but i cant stand the itchy legs phenomena. how do you prevent that from happening?

Someone hacked dr. dews phone. russia?

Watches flying! Interesting how the left E LI out of the watch. Even with the trends they still look like a lock for 6+. Last shift literally had the most snow in that area in the maps and zones. GON also out of the watch. Surprised at that one tbh.

1/3/6/12 EPS probs.

Huge EPS improvement. Only 2 whiffs vs. about 1/3rd on 12Z for example.

paste/powder isn't really my thing. its funny how everyone seems to have their thing they care about with regards to winter storms. but i would take 6" of snow during the day than 12" at night. That dec storm was the biggest of my life (in that month) and completely forgettable.

ha right. we have to work on a first map so im starting on that soon. Did put this out about 40 hours ago and i think the numbers still hold up from the current thinking. Have to update the NE map though.

yea i think its a bit under done with that map. For CT too. the 0C 850 line barely makes into the SE 1/3 of CT and by that time the precip is mostly shutting off and the bulk of the snow has fallen. Looks like a solid 6-10 that run for most

damn james cant get a break. It sucks living on the cape for 9/10 nor'easters and they couldn't even throw him a bone with a localized event.

weird how the just used a yellow gradient from .5 to 2. thats a wide range, everything just looks yellow lol

shame we cant see soundings for free anymore on Pivotal.

Another solid tick of improvement all around for CT.

Top analogs for F096 on the GFS. Jan 15 and Jan 16 both in the top 3. Not really surprising given the southern and eastern focus on that particular run. Mean snowfall for the top 15 analogs shows widespread warning snowfall (8+) for the majority of SNE with 60-70% of them exceeding 6" over a good chunk of CT/RI/MA. Take it for what its worth, considering its just based on one op run of a not so great model.

Watches up for Jimmy! God bless.

i saw CQX reporting light rain and 40 last hour, whats going on right now in Harwich? same?

the germans are coming

Snowfall totals across CT. Thank you to everyone who submitted a report. Lower than i expected around southern CT and its all gone now. Grade: B

Vaporized here, like it never even happened. Sunny and green.

UKMET 126 132 138 144HR sfc progs improvement from the 00Z run.