The 4 Seasons

you said C-2 and 3-6 zones

nothing between 2 and 3?

Looks like BOX even cut back from yesterdays PM update, not sure why...seems a bit low to me given the overnight data.

Yesterday you said 1-3, so it seems you've gone up. The trends the past few runs are definitely positive for CT so i would lean a bit higher but probably not more than C-2 for upwards in NE CT. The hills of NNH and NFF seem the best spot right now for possible advisory snows probably 2-3 there, the coast and valleys are still going to have a hard time accumulating. We'll see what todays runs do, as this could very easily reverse the trend.

Probably, at this point it's certainly possibly this could occur. They need 0.5" right now to tie the record which from what i understand replaces the previous record, but yeah 0.6 to actually break it.

Since its the 5-year anniversary, i thought id post a few images. This was an incredible storm. Pretty much a 6-hour window or maybe even a bit less of heavy snow, several CG strikes locally that sounded like a summer-time severe storm with loud convective claps and snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. We picked up about 13.5" from around 330pm to 930pm. Western CT had a truly historic event with 22-28" while the SE corner got hardly anything with an inch or two, quite the gradient. Here's the updated map i just did a couple months ago....

yeah ive been obsessing over the models all day long and its easy to forget its pretty much right at D5/120hrs out still. I dont think weve ever put out a call >72 hrs except for Dec 2020 when it was about 4/4.5 days because of how strong the consensus was

i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though.

yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z

Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well

I expected it to tick east

Yeah thats gonna be ugly for CT

Got a new toy to play with. Finally got around to make a SNE, CT/MA/RI map. So i'll be able to some forecasts and analysis for this region now. Too bad this winter sucks...

We call that the Tom Cruise white and wet special.

I have zero expectations this will look anything like it does now in 24 hours. I'm just hoping to grab a quick 1 or 2 Friday night and maybe 4 or 6" of slop next mon/tue. But this season, even that is probably pushing it. Knowing 22/23 ill get a little bit of snow in the air, white rain friday night and a windy rainer next Monday. 8.9" on the season 75 days without any measurable snowfall in the heart of winter One 3.9", a quick 0.4" late Feb and 4.6" Feb 27-28 2.1" on the roads all season Slightly above the all-time rat of 01-02

GFS looks good for the Methuen area ....

Pivotal has 925s fyi

i expect nothing but a free pass when im doing 90 in a 45 and free EZ passes over the Tappan Zee

These could just be short term trends and models are seeing something that could just as easily reverse tomorrow, we got a lot runs to go so well see where were at tomorrow. But for now everything at 00z looks good for a few inches in CT away from the immediate coast.

A lot of that qpf at the start looks like mostly rain and when it does transfer over its still gonna be pretty warm in the city itself, i doubt they get lower than mid 30s, unless it comes down really hard for a while

Maybe but with it starting out as rain and turning to white rain with temps around 40 the city would be lucky to see a slushy inch with that look

so with that being said, laughing at the euro but the GFS swings from nearly nothing 0.03 to 0.18 to 0.51 qpf for each run since 12Z. Even worse swings than the euro..thats what i mean by theres really no bar out there.

Holy fuckin shit, what did the GFS just do? i thought the 18Z ECMWF was off its rocker but the GFS said ill see your call and i'm all in.

No.

because its a waste of money, electricity and server space? i have no idea why that thing is still being run, it baffles the mind