The 4 Seasons

IBM/Gateway/Compaq

Huh? The biggest Dec snowstorm in 10 years with potential for 1 foot+ and youre meh? Whats it gonna take, 1888 X2 on Dec 25th?

New Computers for all!

Well since the GFS nailed this storm, then i definitely trust it at 258HR

Only 50 more runs at this rate. Never bought into that supressed 2016 scenario. GFS was OTL. But the v16 held steady the whole time, roughly. Looked nothing like the OP.

WXbell uses a few extra hot dogs in the recipe.

Warnings up for CT. 12-16 all of southern CT, SE corner still on watch.

Yeah, crazy.

Did you see the earlier runs of that thing? It didn't have snow moving into S CT until 5AM and snowing through the night Thursday Night. Thought i was hallucinating or looking at a different storm. Ever since its been bumping up the start time back down to orbit.

I'm rebooting the IBM atm...RPM looks good. So does the 18Z NAM save the dramatic weenies who were swan diving this morning in CT/NY area?

very brief verbatim on this run for you guys down there in S fairfield. Quickly goes back to all snow.

BTV just issued watches for their two southern VT zones. Expect ALY and GYX to fill in the gaps.

Yea i was a bit dissapointed i went 12-20 and only got 9.9. could have been worse. This is the final call vs. reality.

right. not a similar setup imo. i think its just the modelling trends and forecast amounts that were kind of drawing the parallel to imo.

That's a colorful image.

About time that thing got a clue. Noted that GFSv16 has been in line this whole time and has been more or less on track with the EC.

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this... I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. Here's the analysis and model runs from that event.

a few ZONKED members that for sure and few hanging with the GFS on the beach in bermuda as well.

Jesus.

EPS MSLP Mean & Spread: 12Z vs. 00Z

Right. Thats my point. And at the moment, not buying it.

Theres no doubt watches are going to be expanded today, question is how far

Some of my met friends are worried more about slotting in CT than mixing, saying its pretty much a guarantee, i don't see it. I dont see any slotting on that EC run. NAM on the other hand...

im not even considering a change until i see the 18/00Z runs today. Windshield wiper forecasting based on a model run (or two) at this range is never a good idea. You go to 6-12 then tomorrow morning you're back up to 8-16. EC is holding pretty steady more or less and still supports around a foot + for most of CT.