The 4 Seasons

U beat me to it. It was a solid jump north on the ec/uk the night of, near whiffing CT and s ri and mass then a huge jog N pushed us into 12+ amounts. Warnings hoisted last minute while it was already snowing in NYC. Just as will said didn't make it far enough N to your area last minute, still think u got like 6 tho no?

Might be getting my entire 19-20 snowfall in 6 hours. We deserve it after the last two yrs.

That might be the best video ever, lol. Here's...the demon...were gonna whacked...EVEN STRONGER.

Very Sim to 00z awt

No surprise EC right on track.

EC slightly improved for Mon. An inch or two on non paved seems plausible across most of CT.

According to Oceanstwx the new gfs is performing as well or better than the op across the board for scores. It stayed in line with the foreign models at 00z. They stopped running it at 12z though from what I can find.

I don't doubt EC will be much change from 00z French Montana ftw. Also, not to mention the new GFS never went south like the op. Unfortunately it doesn't run at 12z though..

This, just showing support. Id never recommend using the icon over the gfs, its just on its own right now.

ICONs north as well. The world vs. GFS.

ATM....toss the GFS hard. Going with the GFS now is like riding with it when it's the single soln to show snow. It'll correct, sooner or later. Not expecting any change from the EC.

Only goes out to 90 but same look overall, just noise at this range. H5/Sfc.

6Z EC gonna be huge again, no real change.

Yes. The GFSv16 is the parallel. Its a world apart from the OP and more in line with the UK/GEM/EC suite. Thanks for the reply and the insight, didn't mean to put any pressure on you or cause any potential issues. Thanks for hangin out with us and providing your wisdom!

13-27" lock it up

GFSv16 and HRRRx are quite beafy for this.

What do you think of the massive differences between the GFS OP and GFSv16? The current beta GFS version is a much more northerly track and it also has support from the rest of the 00Z suite inlcuding ECMWF/UKMET/GEM. Infact the GFS is actually a bit north and tucked in versus EC/UK/GEM while the GFS OP is well south of that mean. Also what are your thoughts on watches. With such high confidence i could see them going up with the PM shift which is about the max threshold for a watch ~72hrs from start.

GFS on its own. Not to mention the GFSv16 was a monster hit along with every other piece of 00z guidance.Not sure if it was mentioned i didn't have a chance to read everything. And after what OceanSt said, ill be looking at the beta version more than current op now anyways. GFS Ignored. Re: that AFD. I'd take my chances with a more northerly track than banking on ratios from "colder air" from a more southerly track. That's an over simplification of how ratios work in my opinion. We can get good or bad ratios regardless of the track. It isn't a direct coorelation that colder profile temps = higher ratios. It can happen but it all has to do with good lift in the DGZ. Either way, the 00Z and 6Z GFS scraper scenario is very unlikely atm so its all moot.

Do you know when the new GFS v16 will be released? And, in your opinion, since the old (current) GFS is going away, should we even be looking at it? Focusing more on the new GFS vs. the old (current one)? I'm always torn when a new version of the same model is coming out and we have access to both. Especially when they are showing vastly differently soln. This happened a few years ago with the ECMWF.

When an advisory to solid warning snowfall across CT is an ugly run, you know you're tracking something serious. Anything above 4" would destroy any storm last season here.

I saw you're other comment too about Milford CT since 2016 which is also wrong. Check these out real quick, then im out for real. Doesnt look you like you did well on Mar 18 but im suspect of that 3.5 in woodmont, i think you got more than 6 from that one. but at least 3 more were around 10 or more. Feb 17 and Jan 18 were great daytime blizzard condition all-snow type storms. I coulnd't forget them if i tried.

not sure about the rough comment, weve gotten several 12+ events since then. No monsters but a foot + is nothing to sneeze at. Many times, Feb 15, Jan 16, Feb 16, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18, Mar 19 all had double digits amount in new haven county. Im out for a while, GL to all on the 12z models, ill b back on later tonight. This is OUR storm.

Hardcore porn in CT. Looking good for a watching event here and region wide but trying to keep expectations in check as we are still 4.5 days out.

Jesus. That's all I have to say with that 00Z suite. When's the last time we tracked a widespread warning event and possible ku in all of southern New England in Dec. Believe it was 10 years 12/26/10 and the year before that 12/19/09.