The 4 Seasons

Here's an example of the juiced up off hour runs on the EC for the last 4 cycles. The on-hour 12Z/00Z cycles look nearly identical and the 18Z/6Z counterparts look similar as well. Don't ask me why this is happening, it's also just a snapshot of one days worth of runs, so at the same time doesn't "prove" the 6Z/18Z are more or less juiced than the on-hour runs. It's just something I've noticed as well as many users on here. Anecdotal more than anything, but it is interesting to see it visualized. A few years ago we didn't even have the 6Z/18Z ECMWF to look at and maybe that would have been for the better?

I'd pay good money to see that interaction.

Maybe you can drive up 95 and chase the C-1 in CT, might be fun

Make sure you don't forget to put chains on the cruiser and get the blower ready. Maybe you'll see some flurries tonight down in the city.

34 and light rain. epic.

BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one

Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference.

Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil. Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0". Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England. KBDL 58% KORH 52% KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport) KPVD 42% KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport) KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport) KBOS 24% KBDR 20% KISP 19% KEWR 18% KNYC 15%

#FREELEO

Today is the 12 year anniversay of the December 19-20th 2009 nor'easter that heavily affect eastern and southeastern southern New England. Low pressure tracked just outside the 40/70 benchmark. There was a very sharp gradient and cut-off between heavy accumulations and near nothing. In Connecticut NW CT received next to nothing while eastern and SE eastern CT accumulations approached 2 feet. Here, on the line we picked up 10-12" (estimate). Blizzard warnings went up for all of long island and southeast mass. Mostly warnings and advisories for southern New England.

Theres a few members of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS that have this system diving farther south with advisory to warning level snowfall across most or all of southern New England. Obviously were still very far away and those members are in the vast minority at this range. Something to keep an eye on for now.

CC:

5 years ago. The December 17-18th moderate snowfall. A pretty much pedestrian and forgettable event but this time of year it's worth noting and something i'd kill for right now. I'd also kill to have this great radar back and not the abortion they're currently using (RIP flash).

2.2 puts me at #1 on the list for CT, i'm gonna bask it now since this rare circumstance won't last long lol

41F with some light rain here and there.

Man this storm really took a big fat dump on the subforum. At least i was never in the game, so there's that. We're off to good a start.

I'm definitely in that mindset that has been expressed here, if it aint gone snow and/or there's no pack to preserve, i could care less if its 40 or 60. XMas/Mas Eve 2014, 2015 and 2020 were in the 50s and 60s. Looking back i can't believe it was 69 in 2015, almost hit 70 on Christmas Eve, now that's a torch, tiger.

This is the one-year anniversary of the December 16-17th nor'easter that affected the tri-state area and New England. This storm was a major snowstorm and listed as a Cat 2 on NESIS. Snowfall ranged from 10-16" across most of CT and NYC. But the most notable thing about this storm is the huge positive bust the occurred over upper New York state, VT, and NH. Right up to the beginning of the storm many models had very low snowfall in areas that would end up receiving 2-3 feet or more. The highest totals also were reported in this area due to very high ratio snow in the deformation zone. Model trends in the 36-72hr range pushed the storm a bit closer to the coast and the eventual track would end up being inside the 40/70 benchmark. Here are some selected reports across the Northeast. The highest total reported was 44" in New York and New Hampshire. New York City (KNYC): 10.5" Newark (KEWR): 11.4" Hartford (KBDL): 12.3" Bridgeport (KBDR): 9.4" Boston (KBOS): 12.7" Worcester (KORH): 12.1" Albany (KALB): 22.9" Concord (KCON): 25.6" This was a somewhat long duration event with H5/H7 lows closing off. Precipitation began as snow at around 6PM across southern CT and slowly pushed northward. Moderate to heavy snow began a few hours later and encompassed all of Connecticut with rates approaching 3" per hour. After this initial thump pushed through a dry-slot engulfed the state as mid-levels dried out and as precipitation lightened up. Snow changed to sleet and freezing drizzle for much of the southern half of the state. The radar began to fill in again after 2-3AM and mixed precip changed back to all snow. Most of the accumulating snow ending shortly after sunrise as low pressure moved northeast. But it wasn't over yet for Connecticut. Gravity waves moved through in the early afternoon hours and dropped another quick 0.5-1.0" for many towns in southern CT. After these heavy snow showers moved through the state, accumulating snowfall would come to an end. The total duration of the storm was approximately 6PM to 1PM or 19 hours. Forecasting. Under most circumstances i would wait until approximately 2-3 days out to issue a first call on a winter weather event. However, this was the first time i would put out one 3-4 days out. Nearly all global models were very consistent with each other on a widespread 1-2 foot event and on top of that run-to-run consistency was also very high. That, coupled with the fact this was a pretty straight forward setup with plenty of cold air in place, made this an easy decision. From what I recall it was only myself and AMWX user 40/70 Benchmark that issued a map at this time lead. Because of this, a post I made on FB went viral with thousands of shares and likes in 24 hours. This was a few weeks before we launched our business, so it was just my personal Facebook account. The final call I issued was kept as-is with 12-20" for the entire state, emphasizing lower totals near the coast/SE shore and highest in the NW part of the state. This proved to be the case; however, totals were a bit lower than forecast. The state received 10-16 with 6-10" along all of the shoreline. This nor'easter ended up being one of the biggest December snowstorms on record for BDR and BDL. Locally in North Haven, it was the biggest I have witnessed since 2000 and possibly since I've been alive (Dec 30th, 2000, was close).

Huh? How so? i lived in the bay area, there is no interesting weather there. There's no severe weather at all. No canes or tropical systems. It never snows there. It's pretty much the same temperature all year long besides an occasional dry heat wave. Unless you're into rain storms in the fall/winter or maybe an earthquake, which isn't technically weather, I'm not sure how you could argue otherwise.

Right, and they'll get 10-12ft drifts on 3-6er event. lol

Coastal CA, like the bay area San Fran, LA or pretty much anywhere outside of the mountains has the most boring weather on the planet. It's like groundhog day all year round. If you're into weather or a met that lives there you probably want to poke your eyes out with knitting needle.

The SLP is clearly quite a bit north from 00Z but the run is overall colder, esp with the frontend thump in CT

did you call NCEP and tell them to fix that for the 6Z run?

I found one at 10K feet thats even more ridiculous. 89-115". And thats only for the first storm, to the end of the warning. Earlier i saw one at 12K feet that i didn't save but it was 118-155". I used to live in South Lake Tahoe and it this is a lot, even for them. A historical event.

CT State snowfall totals for the Dec 8th, 2021 event.