The 4 Seasons

GFSv16 and HRRRx are quite beafy for this.

What do you think of the massive differences between the GFS OP and GFSv16? The current beta GFS version is a much more northerly track and it also has support from the rest of the 00Z suite inlcuding ECMWF/UKMET/GEM. Infact the GFS is actually a bit north and tucked in versus EC/UK/GEM while the GFS OP is well south of that mean. Also what are your thoughts on watches. With such high confidence i could see them going up with the PM shift which is about the max threshold for a watch ~72hrs from start.

GFS on its own. Not to mention the GFSv16 was a monster hit along with every other piece of 00z guidance.Not sure if it was mentioned i didn't have a chance to read everything. And after what OceanSt said, ill be looking at the beta version more than current op now anyways. GFS Ignored. Re: that AFD. I'd take my chances with a more northerly track than banking on ratios from "colder air" from a more southerly track. That's an over simplification of how ratios work in my opinion. We can get good or bad ratios regardless of the track. It isn't a direct coorelation that colder profile temps = higher ratios. It can happen but it all has to do with good lift in the DGZ. Either way, the 00Z and 6Z GFS scraper scenario is very unlikely atm so its all moot.

Do you know when the new GFS v16 will be released? And, in your opinion, since the old (current) GFS is going away, should we even be looking at it? Focusing more on the new GFS vs. the old (current one)? I'm always torn when a new version of the same model is coming out and we have access to both. Especially when they are showing vastly differently soln. This happened a few years ago with the ECMWF.

When an advisory to solid warning snowfall across CT is an ugly run, you know you're tracking something serious. Anything above 4" would destroy any storm last season here.

I saw you're other comment too about Milford CT since 2016 which is also wrong. Check these out real quick, then im out for real. Doesnt look you like you did well on Mar 18 but im suspect of that 3.5 in woodmont, i think you got more than 6 from that one. but at least 3 more were around 10 or more. Feb 17 and Jan 18 were great daytime blizzard condition all-snow type storms. I coulnd't forget them if i tried.

not sure about the rough comment, weve gotten several 12+ events since then. No monsters but a foot + is nothing to sneeze at. Many times, Feb 15, Jan 16, Feb 16, Feb 17, Jan 18, Mar 18, Mar 19 all had double digits amount in new haven county. Im out for a while, GL to all on the 12z models, ill b back on later tonight. This is OUR storm.

Hardcore porn in CT. Looking good for a watching event here and region wide but trying to keep expectations in check as we are still 4.5 days out.

Jesus. That's all I have to say with that 00Z suite. When's the last time we tracked a widespread warning event and possible ku in all of southern New England in Dec. Believe it was 10 years 12/26/10 and the year before that 12/19/09.

Yeah it's 29.3 for the last 30 years 20 years: 31.6 10 years: 34.9

ask and you shall receive. oh you didn't ask? Well here it is anyways....enjoy

It starts creeping in right after the height of the storm and then slowly gets more and more pronounced towards the end, then when its over it hits like a truck....until i can find something on the interwebs to satiate my appetite. For example the most accurate, most scientifically sound, tried and true snow maps...especially the wxbell and weathermodel ones. Those are clearly superior to all other sites, because they show the most snow.

That empty, hollow feeling when the snow starts winding down and post-storm depression starts settling in. There's nothing on the horizon thats even remotely got a chance so you retreat to the 384hr GFS panels and then all of a sudden you realize, I've got a serious problem.

Chill, you've gotten 4,335" since start of records. No need to be greedy.

Hope december pans, it's been a long long time since we've had a decent to good december, especially for the city.

It said rain at the coast and r/s inland. Thats different. Alsoim really not splitting hairs when im just talking about the overall conveyance of communication of the look of the storm on the AFD, not talking about the grids or zones. BOXs was spot on and imo, conveyed what we're all seeing while OKX read like a mainly liquid event. Either way its still 5.5 days out now.

Were obv at the point where you just go chance pops. But at least BOX has the right idea with snow in the zones as the main ptype. It's not like i use it for anything i just had some spare time and figure id read the AFDs. BOX AFD 10/10, OKX AFD /10

I had to double check to make sure they weren't referring to the first possible event, or wave 1. And nope, no they weren't.

Ensembles are all pointing to a near 40/70 track. Perfect strong high placement to the north. It's possible it can go either way, id lean towards more offshore though. Right now it appears to be mainly a white event not rain. What exactly is pointing to most likely being all rain at the coast and mix inland with possibly light snow at the very end? That's almost ridiculous to say. Terrible AFD long term write up imo. BOX on the other hand, doesn't seem to be sniffing glue this morning. Way more reasonable for the overall view of things. Still a considerable amount of uncertainty in this timeframe. Not too much of a change from the previous shift where the EPS/GEFS shows clustering of surface lows near the benchmark. Still too early to latch onto things given there still is a decent amount of spread amongst ensemble and deterministic guidance. The operational GFS/CMC do show impacts from the system, but more of a glancing blow in comparison to the operational EC. Does appear that colder air should be aided in being locked in with a surface high in place over Quebec. Right now models show 925 hPa temperature ranging from 0 to - 15 degree Celsius. Given the uncertainty this far out have kept with the NBM guidance and capped at high chance PoPs. Still much too early for specifics. If a coastal storm pans out there could be some coastal flooding concerns given the high astro tides and strong wind gusts. Could also have significant snowfall, but really need to hone in on specific details which are impossible to discern this far out. Stay tuned for future updates.

Global models continue to signal a southern stream-dominated low pressure system that could approach and pass nearby sometime from Wednesday into Wednesday night impacting the local area. Will not be making any significant changes to the current forecast during this time period being this is still far out in time. Right now it appears that the most likely precipitation types would be rain at the coast and a wintry mix inland with the possibility of light snow towards the tail end late Wednesday night, but this has plenty of time to change. High pressure builds back across the area on Thursday. Um....

i think i might have pulled this from you that storm.

me too unfortunately..NYC busted really bad looking at it now, they had a 17" FX from the NWS. They only picked up 7.6.

I just read this. And yes i can confirm NWS Zones had 18-24 the night before...lots a huge amounts from local stations, i went pretty conservative and still busted high. We changed over to heavy sleet and snow, some of the heaviest ive seen by 10am and it was supposed to snow all day. I was definitely dissapointed with 9.9 on a 12-20 forecast from myself and NWS 18-24. Could have been worse though, you could have been expected warning amounts and ended up with 2" in KGON. Last minute bumps NW FTL. It was still a great season though and we did have a big boy 10-18 statewide the month before with lots of TSSN. Jan had a nice daytime blizzard as well. Fyi..

Since you were snow88.

EPS probs for 1,3,6 and 12 are very high for the lead time