The 4 Seasons

About time that thing got a clue. Noted that GFSv16 has been in line this whole time and has been more or less on track with the EC.

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this... I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. Here's the analysis and model runs from that event.

a few ZONKED members that for sure and few hanging with the GFS on the beach in bermuda as well.

Jesus.

EPS MSLP Mean & Spread: 12Z vs. 00Z

Right. Thats my point. And at the moment, not buying it.

Theres no doubt watches are going to be expanded today, question is how far

Some of my met friends are worried more about slotting in CT than mixing, saying its pretty much a guarantee, i don't see it. I dont see any slotting on that EC run. NAM on the other hand...

im not even considering a change until i see the 18/00Z runs today. Windshield wiper forecasting based on a model run (or two) at this range is never a good idea. You go to 6-12 then tomorrow morning you're back up to 8-16. EC is holding pretty steady more or less and still supports around a foot + for most of CT.

Smoke exhaust please.

Same hour, zoomed

This whole thread is gold. Sending you good mojo from SNE. Id much rather see you guys get pounded than my NNE counterparts. You deserve it after the last 2 years.

@weathafella RPM

wheres that GFS16 meme you posted yesterday @dendrite

Boo CT stations

its been very consisten since it jumped on it from the very first run wed night. This is the first run from 12/10 00Z. Looks pretty familiar. 174hr.

I'm not claiming any win or victory of anything yet but i appreciate the acknowledgement. Any forecast is still on the table right now. We have a good 40+hrs to go and lots can change. Everything still looks good and on track for the those amounts though. Stay the course and wait for any appreciable trend or coop and adjust accordingly. It's good to see those watches up though for 12-17" to back my call. 2nd update tomorrow (possible) and final call Wednesday AM or Tuesday night.

No clue how that happened.. thanks @BGM Blizzard

Here's the demon...

oh i meant im posting them now..

00Z EPS. Snow probs: QPF probs: Max Wind Gust Total QPF: Total Snow 10:1 MSLP, 850 T, 6-Hr QPF:

yeah, ha 20-24 sounds nice.EPS coming now.

IBM & RPM for @weathafella

you know what algorithm these use, is it some in house special or based off of kuchera, cobb,etc?

GFS sends its love from Bermuda.