The 4 Seasons

No big leaps with the GFS but a NW bump. Until i see a single piece of guidance like that its going in the trash can.

i agree with all of that. I was just basing it off the fact that NJ (PHI) went up yesterday. I expected them to either be up now or PM Monday monday

Kinda surprised at no watches given the fact NJ issued them a period before. Probably PM shift then. W. Drag must be giddy.

I'm curious to see what the 00Z GFS16 looks like. It's not out yet, i think a few more hours..

NAM.... Means nothing at this range but goes up to NYC and then heads east, even brings slot and mixing into S CT. Not happening.

6Z NAM warmed up a bit for tomorrow. Looks like mainly a rain/white rain event for the south shore, coastal CT, NYC and LI. 1-2 likely well inland. 3" possible in W CT hills.

Those storms are mint for Hartford county and 91.

huh? for you? how do you figure... WeHa did very well in all those, far from a pork job.

There have been plenty of times since then where you might not have nessisarily jacked but you didnt get porked in the ass either. Feb 17, Mar 17, Jan 18, Mar 18 come to mind. But yea since a 91 jackpot its been a while.

Stinks that the imagine quality gets downgraded when i upload those maps. They look a million times better on my PC. Very sharp and crisp. I get it though, trying to save bandwidth with all the posts and images were uploading a million times a day. It's a free site after all.

Its been a decade since we got to track something like this in December. Wow i just read the watch for NJ. Ive never seen an early watch that says 12" or more possible. They always go with the criteria 6" or more possible..or they do a range. Never seen 12. Should be getting watches region wide in an hour or so if NJ went up yesterday evening. * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 inches or more possible.

Wed-Thu blizzard. This is probably the earliest i've made a first call with around 3 days to go. Updates to follow. Capped it at 20 as i dont like going into the 20s, 24, 30 etc until we get close to the event and see "the whites of its eyes" as they say. Plenty of time to adjust. I like when maps take 20 minutes to make its nice and simple. That may change though.

Its been a solid 2 years for us in the tri-state area, S RI and SE MA. Going on 3 years for anything 6+ in MET winter.

Sorry about that. Location perspective wording. You're location is so far north you can basically consider it CNE, or at least on the southern edge of CNE, northern edge of SNE. Its subjective. Still feel the 00Z EC was essentially the same as 12Z overall slightly less on the Nrn edge. But you didnt get that solid bump north you were waiting for...yet. Plenty of runs to go.

Light snow event for CT. NAM being the most robust and coldest of the models at 00Z. Bufkit showing some pretty decent lift in the DGZ and apparent on the GFS as well. GEM and RGEM are the warmest with the EC somewhere in between. The main problem i see is going to be the BL temps near the shore and at lower elevations. This will be a mainly grassy surface type of event for most unless you are 4 or 500ft and above. This will be occuring at all daylight hours but the thing we have going for it is that we are near the lowest sun angle of the season. Unless the colder solns verify and we can get some decent mod rates for a while i expect the shore to be mainly white rain. This is a general C-2 event but cant rule out the possibility of some favored hill towns in central connecticut seeing 3". Everything is done by 5-7PM as the colder air comes rushing in setting the state for a potential block buster event across the region.

im about the same its just a little more nuanced, i split the c-2 into two ranges is all.

lol sounds familiar.

i believe the v16 is the new, called the para on TT. The past two days its been consistently north with the Wed storm. I really havent been paying too much attention to it until Dec 5th event, no real storms to track.

Same. Not sure how you can go with a model that is an extreme outlier, not to mention its newer counterpart is in the main camp. Are you guys doing a map for SCTWX?

10:1 map for the s

No big changes on the Euro, consistency. Just mainly noise for this lead time. Another great run in the books. GFS vs. the world. Tossed. Still in the trash can for now.

Thats a good order, i can agree with that. EC is still the king regardless of anecdotal evidence. Re: the PARA, i dont know the exact time it comes out but i know its very late. It has not jumped on the S wagon like the op. Euro gonna be a big hit again, looks great at 72. I'm planning on doing a first call map for Wed tonight after the 00z suite finishes and a final and only call map for Tomorrows light snow event.

NAM too.. RPM was the most reasonable and surprisingly run to run consistent . That was rpm storm I think

First "death band" siting