The 4 Seasons

What an epic bust down here in CT from about 91 and west. I remember it vividly. We were under a blizzard warning with calm winds and clear skies. OKX wouldn't pull the plug until about 9PM. Got about 2" from WAA snows on the front end and that was it. E CT did well and verified the warnings.

Latest update to the season to date snowfall for CT.

Final totals in CT. Thanks for all the reports. Ill be working on a season to date snowfall map so dont forget to update New England Snow website. I think we were pretty bullish on this event from the start but clearly not enough. Grade is based solely on the final call. We issued a short-term map update after the event started. Least amount of the snow fell in far N and NW CT and i think most of the state was within the 1-3" range. We busted way low on the eastern 1/3rd of the state with 4-8" there. Final Grade: C- Final Call: Short-term update:

last update after the blizzard

Any final totals in CT please send them my way. Reports are tough for this one because it was so stretched out over time with multiple parts. Anything would be appreciated, thanks.

Total? @Ginx snewxcan you let me know your final, looks like the jackpot as expected.

2.4"

1.7" 630AM

Light to moderate snow past few hours. Big flakes with excellent snow growth. Should be close to 2" atm.

Final call. Might end up being on the lower side in parts of eastern and southern CT. Bumped up quite a bit from our first call yesterday morning. First call.

This winter blows chunks, that is all.

18Z GFS looks like dog sh*t.

The germans are coming?

Since 6Z only goes out to 90 hours. If you go out even further in the run the differences are even more dramatic Let's take a look at H5 and compare it to 00Z at 105 hours and 111 hours, 4pm Sunday and 10pm Sunday respectively. The 12Z run is significantly different than the last big run at 00Z and much more what you want to see for rapid east coast cyclogenesis running up the coast. We are still quite a way out for this potential event but the afternoon runs overall are trending in the right direction. The EPS is not a great look overall at this range we are going to want to see an improvement at 00Z. Very few members are hits. Heres the mean SLP/QPF and member SLP.

that report does seem a little sussy though

Can't believe its been 5 years already. But this beautiful bomb hit Feb 9th 2017. Notable aspects of this storm is that was particularly easy to forecast with extremely good consensus amongst all models and run-run consistency. Widespread thundersnow broke out in CT during the early afternoon hours with rates reaching 4" per hour.

right now its looking like a sun afternoon into overnight. That would mainly be a night storm. But at this range ~100-120hrs you can expect that to shift up to 6-12 hours in either direction.

? wasn't it literally one bad season before that, 11-12. 10-11 was good to great for most of all SNE. 9-10 couldn't have been better than 10-11 even for your area?

overall the 2000s. 2000-2020 have been very good, only a couple horrible ratters in there like 01-02, 06-07, 11-12 and 19-20

There were a few reports in the 36-40" range around the Hamden/North Haven area down SW in the valley and Milford. I don't know much about that 40" Hamden report but i dont think it was ever verified or considered official. Here's some radar images and i snowfall map a couple years ago for this.

How many feet we talkin?

Actually yeah, technically. 50" would put me pretty well above average. I estimate that we are somewhere in the 30-35" range for about 100 years or since the start of most modern-day records. And for the past 20 years probably around 45". Especially considering BDRs past 20 years is 38.2" and all time is 29.6". So strictly based on numbers it's probably more like a B. But usually, for me anyway, a winter and the grade i gave it factors in way more than just straight snowfall...such as expectations, positive/negative busts, daytime vs. nighttime snowstorms, last minute model trends, snowpack and retention, temps, snow or rain/cutters around the holidays, etc. A lot of negatives for me this winter so far but it's not awful. 2020-2021 was certainly much better at this point.

I did... 0.9" on Christmas Eve MORNING. That lasted until the night. Then got wiped out Christmas morning and Day and Night with rain. an A and a F....averaging out to a mediocre C. lol

tell me about it. It was on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of confidence and consistency.

Just one comment i wanted to make, this was the first time trying to do a liquid equivalent map and ratios. If i didn't use your total it was most likely because i needed to use a report that had both and snowfall total and liquid total to derive a ratio. It wouldn't make sense to use a snowfall report from one person, a melted liquid report from another and ratio combining the two.