The 4 Seasons

Anyone do a wellness check on Jimmy?

While we wait for the 00Z cycle to come in i took a dive into CIPS to check some analogs. Looks like the blizzard of 96 is #1 for the NAM, the interior Northeast event of 1994 at 2 (what kocin would call a "near-miss storm" and the blizzard of 2016 and 2015 at 3 and 4. The GFS 84HR analog #1 is the blizzard of 2015. A 1989 storm i dont recognize and a Feb 1996 Nor'easter. I didnt notice this one either but looked it up and has striking similarities with the snowfall distribution with two maxes, one around NYC/NJ and the other in E NE Mass. Mean 72-HR snowfall has a really wide area of 8-12" over most of SNE for the top 15 analogs. These change run-run but seems that Jan 96 and Jan 15/16 have been hitting hard on the top 5 for a while now.

Good thing we have all this model continuity.

Those are some high probs even for 6+ but that's 8+ on WPC. 70-90% for all of CT

Next youre gonna tell me santa clause isnt real

Is ORH ever really in a bad spot, i mean, lets be real here

Bulk of what accumulates in CT should be within a 12-15hr period. Luckily this time it appears, at least a good chunk, to be happening during the day.

No. must be here. I wouldn't worry about it in our area, most of what we get is from the first part/phase as the storm is taking shape E of the delmarva. By the time it winds up and E MA/RI and possibly E/NE CT is getting pummled with the 2nd part its over for us. From what ive seen on rays map its pretty much in agreement with 6-10 and i have 6-12 but highlighted higher in the NE. As long as youre not expecting a blockbuster 12+ i think well be fine. Really feel like 6 is the basement for our area. Where are you in Hamden btw, Hamden has its own little climate with hilly sheltered areas on Gaylord Mt. Rd that go up to 650ft to near 0 downtown dixwell ave in "the city" Oh, also remember any downsloping we get in CT is usually affected in the hartford cty area with big hills to the W and E. when you get closer to the shore that doesnt really become a factor, generally speaking of course .

After reviewing all the overnight data and the trends we decided to go with 6-12" across CT. This is a first call map and we will likely have at least one more update before the storm to fine tune and pinpoint higher and lower ranges. Highlighted the areas to be on the higher end of the range and possibly 12+ in the NE hills. Don't believe mixing will be enough of factor to hold down amounts in the SE corner to warrant a lower range (i.e. 3-6) but figure they will probably be on the lower end. Definitely think OKXs map is a bit too low there in that regard. Once the 12Z and 00Z suite roll out today ill take a look at bufkit and fine tune the ranges. These two maps are just for our general public on social media, pretty sure everyone here knows the deal. Just thought they came out pretty cool...photoshop is fun.

And i always reciprocate.

Just shocked. I've literally never seen you post unless its unfavorably snowy run or its going to warm up to melt it all way.

For you folks curious about the NWS. The 3 CWAs in SNE have updated their maps.

i dont know how you do it. running in the cold is the worst. id power through the cold but i cant stand the itchy legs phenomena. how do you prevent that from happening?

Someone hacked dr. dews phone. russia?

Watches flying! Interesting how the left E LI out of the watch. Even with the trends they still look like a lock for 6+. Last shift literally had the most snow in that area in the maps and zones. GON also out of the watch. Surprised at that one tbh.

1/3/6/12 EPS probs.

Huge EPS improvement. Only 2 whiffs vs. about 1/3rd on 12Z for example.

paste/powder isn't really my thing. its funny how everyone seems to have their thing they care about with regards to winter storms. but i would take 6" of snow during the day than 12" at night. That dec storm was the biggest of my life (in that month) and completely forgettable.

ha right. we have to work on a first map so im starting on that soon. Did put this out about 40 hours ago and i think the numbers still hold up from the current thinking. Have to update the NE map though.

yea i think its a bit under done with that map. For CT too. the 0C 850 line barely makes into the SE 1/3 of CT and by that time the precip is mostly shutting off and the bulk of the snow has fallen. Looks like a solid 6-10 that run for most

damn james cant get a break. It sucks living on the cape for 9/10 nor'easters and they couldn't even throw him a bone with a localized event.

weird how the just used a yellow gradient from .5 to 2. thats a wide range, everything just looks yellow lol

shame we cant see soundings for free anymore on Pivotal.

Another solid tick of improvement all around for CT.