The 4 Seasons

Definitely by dawn for a good chunk of the state. SW CT may have an inch or two even on the ground by then. Far NE CT probably just a bit after though. Havent looked super close yet.

if it snowing by dawn theres no travel issues tonight/overnight. AM commute monday morning (dawn) is a different story. oh nvm i meant today is prep day. i work nights so today is my tomorrow sorry for the confusion.

not too much of bunch from the 6-10 and 3-6 they had, introduced a 12-16 in the extreme SW corner as well. Thatll probably change one more time before go time im guessing.

Just catching up on the 00Z runs and 6Z runs, look fantastic albeit with the usual caveats and red flags. Not an easy forecast but it seems we have much better agreement than that mess at 12Z yesterday. Id like to see a little continuity with the 12Z runs today before we put out a final call. Tomorrow is prep and warning day. No travel issues for anyone in CT until overnight.

Like always theres going to be some localized major busts...in both directions. With big boys like this though, it gets magnified greatly. Wouldn't be surpised to see reports range from 6 to 30 in CT alone.

1888?

Why u always be jackin my maps yo

nothing, inconsequence arctic sand he said no accumulation

poor guy. i never thought hed get those 8-11" amounts i saw him forecast but figured he could pick a few inches and not just a few flakes. Havent heard from him at all this storm. I mean theres a chance he gets accumulating snow, albeit, Jimmy Carrey level chances in dumb and dumber...but theres a chance.

Anyone do a wellness check on Jimmy?

While we wait for the 00Z cycle to come in i took a dive into CIPS to check some analogs. Looks like the blizzard of 96 is #1 for the NAM, the interior Northeast event of 1994 at 2 (what kocin would call a "near-miss storm" and the blizzard of 2016 and 2015 at 3 and 4. The GFS 84HR analog #1 is the blizzard of 2015. A 1989 storm i dont recognize and a Feb 1996 Nor'easter. I didnt notice this one either but looked it up and has striking similarities with the snowfall distribution with two maxes, one around NYC/NJ and the other in E NE Mass. Mean 72-HR snowfall has a really wide area of 8-12" over most of SNE for the top 15 analogs. These change run-run but seems that Jan 96 and Jan 15/16 have been hitting hard on the top 5 for a while now.

Good thing we have all this model continuity.

Those are some high probs even for 6+ but that's 8+ on WPC. 70-90% for all of CT

Next youre gonna tell me santa clause isnt real

Is ORH ever really in a bad spot, i mean, lets be real here

Bulk of what accumulates in CT should be within a 12-15hr period. Luckily this time it appears, at least a good chunk, to be happening during the day.

No. must be here. I wouldn't worry about it in our area, most of what we get is from the first part/phase as the storm is taking shape E of the delmarva. By the time it winds up and E MA/RI and possibly E/NE CT is getting pummled with the 2nd part its over for us. From what ive seen on rays map its pretty much in agreement with 6-10 and i have 6-12 but highlighted higher in the NE. As long as youre not expecting a blockbuster 12+ i think well be fine. Really feel like 6 is the basement for our area. Where are you in Hamden btw, Hamden has its own little climate with hilly sheltered areas on Gaylord Mt. Rd that go up to 650ft to near 0 downtown dixwell ave in "the city" Oh, also remember any downsloping we get in CT is usually affected in the hartford cty area with big hills to the W and E. when you get closer to the shore that doesnt really become a factor, generally speaking of course .

After reviewing all the overnight data and the trends we decided to go with 6-12" across CT. This is a first call map and we will likely have at least one more update before the storm to fine tune and pinpoint higher and lower ranges. Highlighted the areas to be on the higher end of the range and possibly 12+ in the NE hills. Don't believe mixing will be enough of factor to hold down amounts in the SE corner to warrant a lower range (i.e. 3-6) but figure they will probably be on the lower end. Definitely think OKXs map is a bit too low there in that regard. Once the 12Z and 00Z suite roll out today ill take a look at bufkit and fine tune the ranges. These two maps are just for our general public on social media, pretty sure everyone here knows the deal. Just thought they came out pretty cool...photoshop is fun.

And i always reciprocate.

Just shocked. I've literally never seen you post unless its unfavorably snowy run or its going to warm up to melt it all way.

For you folks curious about the NWS. The 3 CWAs in SNE have updated their maps.

i dont know how you do it. running in the cold is the worst. id power through the cold but i cant stand the itchy legs phenomena. how do you prevent that from happening?

Someone hacked dr. dews phone. russia?

Watches flying! Interesting how the left E LI out of the watch. Even with the trends they still look like a lock for 6+. Last shift literally had the most snow in that area in the maps and zones. GON also out of the watch. Surprised at that one tbh.

1/3/6/12 EPS probs.