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Everything posted by Random Chaos
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We are near peak tide (peak tide was estimated starting around 1am and lasting through about 3am). Measured based on NAVD88 Datum a tide height of 3.0'. Per Annapolis data, MLW is -0.55' vs Datum. This was average height with waves. Winds have dropped off, now 22-25mph gusts 25-28mph from the ENE (same direction they have been running the past several hours). Forecast was for the winds to hit slack near high tide as the wind directions shifts from NE to S as the circulation center moves through. You can see the modest drop off in wind speed here: This photo is of the staff gauge calibrated to NAVD88 Datum at a null in wave activity that lasted about 30 seconds.
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Transition more likely the reason. Winds are forecast (just north of Bay Bridge): Tonight NE wind 19 to 24 kt, with gusts as high as 34 kt. Rain, mainly after 11pm. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Saturday NE wind around 30 kt, with gusts as high as 44 kt. Rain. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Saturday Night NE wind 27 to 32 kt decreasing to 17 to 22 kt. Winds could gust as high as 41 kt. Rain. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Though models actually show strongest winds tonight closer 30-35kt gusts 50kt+
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Based on the model output, heaviest winds near the bay are likely overnight Friday into Saturday AM, probably from around midnight to 10am. This is a band well ahead of the main storm which will still be down in North Carolina at that time. Midday Saturday we should have relaxed winds (still 20kt+) and less gusty between the leading band and the main storm before it picks up again Saturday evening as the main storm center approaches, though less windy than the leading band the previous night. Heaviest rain is harder to forecast due to substantial model divergence but seems to generally correspond to the heaviest winds.
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This is going to be one giant eye when it finishes clearing out the remnants of the old eye. Probably 12-ish hours left on that.
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0Z GEFS has 100% of the members showing a landfall in either New England or adjacent Canada, with a fairly even distribution between Long Island through Newfoundland & PEI.
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It is impressive it’s maintaining 959mb pressure with an open eyewall (per latest dropsonde and vortex report). But it feels like 87kt might be underestimated; 3 hours ago a dropsonde found 96kt surface winds and the latest dropsonde found 86kt surface winds with two 106kt unflagged SFMR readings. This system seems stronger than it has any right to be given the shear and satellite appearance. I also feel the standard flight level to surface wind adjustments haven’t matched what empirical data has shown with this storm the last two days; the surface winds are consistently stronger than they should be given observed flight level winds.