Random Chaos

Anne Arundel County, near Chesapeake Bay Bridge:

2.11" and managed to miss the tornado by a few miles.

Here’s some helicopter footage: https://www.wbaltv.com/article/skyteam-11-video-of-aftermath-of-ida-in-annapolis-maryland/37457104

Not liking the track of that Annapolis area tornado. Way too close to home. Good couplet, debris ball signature.

162kt (186mph) maybe 100m above the surface.

132mb vortex message: URNT12 KNHC 291215 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021 A. 29/11:56:10Z B. 28.47 deg N 089.57 deg W C. 700 mb 2519 m D. 932 mb E. 230 deg 34 kt F. CLOSED G. C20 H. 104 kt I. 059 deg 12 nm 11:51:30Z J. 159 deg 138 kt K. 059 deg 10 nm 11:52:30Z L. 105 kt M. 295 deg 10 nm 12:01:00Z N. 018 deg 133 kt O. 298 deg 12 nm 12:02:00Z P. 9 C / 3038 m Q. 23 C / 3052 m R. 3 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF305 1409A IDA OB 11 MAX FL WIND 138 KT 059 / 10 NM 11:52:30Z

Frictional effects often pull hurricanes right of their extrapolated track just before landfall. Doesn’t always happen though, and that part of LA is extremely low and flat. Hoping not with Ida as that would be worse for NOLA.

Seeing lightening in the eyewall again:

163mph radar indicated at 15k feet.

28.2 / 17.6

Yes, they can use it.

Turned into a major ice storm here outside Annapolis. Looks like around 1/3" accretion.

Freezing rain and temperatures have dropped back below freezing.

I'm ready for Sunday!

This looks ugly from HRRR (via https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet )

Most likely the cruise line will divert and/or go around the storm. The storm is moving at only 8mph which gives a cruise ship plenty of room to maneuver. But still a bit of a head scratcher.

One thing that could be preventing an ERC is what appears to be a light consistent easterly shear, which is most evident by the continually reduced convection on the western side. If you think about the properties that make an annular hurricane (and I am by no means saying that Dorian is annular), these are typically light persistent shear, cooler water than what should typically support the system (though not always required), and a lack of banding. This results in a lack of ERCs. With the exception of the cooler water, Dorian has the other properties, and isn't undergoing an ERC (nor does recon indicate any secondary wind maxima developing).

I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather.

My temps right now: Outside Temperature 36.4°F Wind Chill 29.7°F Heat Index 36.4°F Dewpoint 18.1°F