Random Chaos

Incredible core on IR now. Really cleared out. Image from https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/GOES/ using IR9 color scale.

Low overnight of 47.2. Quite a bit warmer than a lot of you.

Just got to ignore that spin near La Plata and it definitely does

Staff gauge this morning (about 8:30am) in NAVD88 Datum: This beach normally has about 15 feed wide sand: And a neighbor sent me this from about a mile and a half from me:

Yeah GFS has been suggesting that the past day:

While it's still raining in some areas, here are initial rainfall estimates from https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ And here's my anemometer output:

We are near peak tide (peak tide was estimated starting around 1am and lasting through about 3am). Measured based on NAVD88 Datum a tide height of 3.0'. Per Annapolis data, MLW is -0.55' vs Datum. This was average height with waves. Winds have dropped off, now 22-25mph gusts 25-28mph from the ENE (same direction they have been running the past several hours). Forecast was for the winds to hit slack near high tide as the wind directions shifts from NE to S as the circulation center moves through. You can see the modest drop off in wind speed here: This photo is of the staff gauge calibrated to NAVD88 Datum at a null in wave activity that lasted about 30 seconds.

Peak gust 39mph about an hour ago. 1.11" rain.

Wind so far (graph) and sea state. Photo has my anemometer in it on the pier. Tide is around 1' datum (0.5' MLW).

0.87" rain, nothing coming down right now. Tide about 0.5’ Datum (believe that is about 0.0’ MLW based on Annapolis being -0.55 datum to MLW). Winds are around 25 gusting 30. They peaked earlier today 30 gusting 38.

Just lost power. Winds 26-28 gusting 35.

Transition more likely the reason. Winds are forecast (just north of Bay Bridge): Tonight NE wind 19 to 24 kt, with gusts as high as 34 kt. Rain, mainly after 11pm. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Saturday NE wind around 30 kt, with gusts as high as 44 kt. Rain. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Saturday Night NE wind 27 to 32 kt decreasing to 17 to 22 kt. Winds could gust as high as 41 kt. Rain. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Though models actually show strongest winds tonight closer 30-35kt gusts 50kt+

Little surprised that there is not even a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Chesapeake Bay. Most of the models are predicting 35-40mph-winds.

No, 925mb on what I posted was 74kt. Surface at 1001mb was 66kt.

And dropsonde with 66kt surface.

Dropsonde found 66kt at surface NW of center. Category 1 threshold is 64kt.

You might lose power. Better stock on ice chests instead.

I was looking at the shear map’s just yesterday morning expecting that. With the vorticity of a tropical cyclone when storms in its bands come ashore it’s common to get weak tornadoes.

Extreme tides now forecast for Annapolis:

Based on the model output, heaviest winds near the bay are likely overnight Friday into Saturday AM, probably from around midnight to 10am. This is a band well ahead of the main storm which will still be down in North Carolina at that time. Midday Saturday we should have relaxed winds (still 20kt+) and less gusty between the leading band and the main storm before it picks up again Saturday evening as the main storm center approaches, though less windy than the leading band the previous night. Heaviest rain is harder to forecast due to substantial model divergence but seems to generally correspond to the heaviest winds.

Where’s the rain/snow line? in seriousness, don’t like 58mph gusts near me…

I plan to post data on how high the tide gets on the west side. Got a staff gauge on my pier zeroed to zero datum (can look up the offset from mean low water to that).

I'll believe it when we get snow.

Waiting for CBOFS tide forecasts to get in range. Wind direction is going to be NE initially which will push water toward the western side of the Bay. This is NHC:

Was even faster - the 40% was in the 2-7 day period. It was only 10% in the 48hr period just 3 hours ago.