Random Chaos

Here we go!

Volcano Cafe is great! Always read it after an event, mostly lurker there but occasionally post. Got me to check my weather station for the shockwave:

Some incredible statistics about the Tonga eruption here - including record cold temperature detected by a satellite and over 400k lightening strikes in just a few hours: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/ (unfortunately no direct article link available, it’s the post on Jan 15th) And here are some other great satellite views of the eruption:

25.6/8.2 10-15mph wind N to NNE Near Annapolis.

I’m not sure that’s quite what is depicted. The wind doesn’t really pick up on the NAM until after the rain transition on the model. That ZR is almost entirely before the big rain mass reaches us. If you look at the 850 winds at 0z Monday on the 12z NAM, the mass of wind has just reached DC and already the ZR has pulled north of DC.

Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us:

I’m thinking of the storm a week ago. The GFS had it a week ahead, then lost it, only to get it back 2 days ahead, then stuck verbatim and we got a good storm. Next few days could be rough but lets not write this thing off from run to run oscillation. There’s definitely something going on with the op vs ensembles but no clue what. Remember thst data for this storm is originating out over the pacific now - mostly satellite derived data which is less accurate than ground stations.

That’s my usual process

That’s exactly what I was thinking, just wondering if there was a study on it. Not talking verification scores so much as how these permutations are amplified. The raw data ingested is not exact, especially data that originated west of California, and errors or inaccuracies in the data could be amplified in the 5+ day period for us on the east coast in higher resolution models.

I wonder, have there been any studies on the accuracy of a model at medium to long range when run at different resolutions? It seems to me that both the Euro and GFS were better at the 5+ day range (more consistent run-to-run) back before the resolution upgrades that started a number of years back. I’m bringing this up because the EPS and GEFS are run at lower resolution and both have eastern tracks vs the op. Wondering if errors are getting amplified at range with these higher resolution models.

I’ll take P15.

Clearly you need to drive more around the DC area after a storm

Sorry, yes, bwi: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kbwi

I’ll take the COBB output! NAM 18z: 220107/0700Z 13 35007KT 30.5F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 220107/0800Z 14 32009KT 30.5F SNOW 20:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 19:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 220107/0900Z 15 32008KT 30.5F SNOW 27:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 22:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 220107/1000Z 16 32009KT 30.3F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 21:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0 220107/1100Z 17 31010KT 30.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 21:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0 27:1 ratios, here we come!

I’m hanging my hope on insane ratios to turn that turd of a GFS run into a crushing blow!

RGEM keeps hope alive!

Saw this on WTOP: Eastbound U.S. 50 before I-97 is closed. One lane is open westbound. Tractor-trailers have jackknifed.

Wind driven wet snow has given me 2" on vertical surfaces on the windward side of posts, while the ground has maybe half an inch total.

US 50 in Annapolis down to one track through snow: https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=7e01ec5800f700d700437a45351f0214

34.4/33.1 Temperatures finally caving to the snow rate in last 30 minutes. White coating on everything now.

Looking at traffic cams, US 50 in Annapolis now snow covered.

36.3/34.7 - 100 feet offshore / 120 feet from house 33/?? - at house That’s an incredible 3F delta in 120 feet! Chesapeake Bay is still very warm, but rates overcoming temps and starting to see sticking.

36.3/34.5 25mph NNE wind SN+ big fat flakes going completely sideways. Nothing sticking yet.

43.8/37.4 Winds 18mph NNE Note that the dips in temperature earlier were wind direction changes between off-land and off-Chesapeake Bay.

Why are we not in storm mode? As funny as it is, this banter is getting distracting.