Random Chaos

4nm eye. Wow. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 22:41ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: MiltonStorm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 03A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 22:20:04ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.86N 90.67WB. Center Fix Location: 93 statute miles (149 km) to the NW (312°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 899mb (26.55 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 220° at 24kts (From the SW at 28mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 4 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not AvailableI. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NAJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 160° at 135kts (From the SSE at 155.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 22:18:51ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not AvailableM. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NAN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 322° at 161kts (From the NW at 185.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WSW (237°) of center fix at 22:21:09ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy / Meteorological Accuracy (Undecoded): 0.01 / NARemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 161kts (~ 185.3mph) which was observed 4 nautical miles to the WSW (237°) from the flight level center at 22:21:09Z

Everytime I see this storm name I can't stop thinking of Devil's Advocate...

It's gone extratropical with a warm asymetric core. I find it fascinating that Europe is getting this storm. It's a rare season that sees anything hit there. Here's the cyclone phase from GFS showing the core structure (source: https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ )

Shrinking eyes != ERC (though they can lead to one). An ERC is indicated by double wind maxima on recon or structural verification on Microwave Imagery typically.

Absolutely incredible lightening today in the eye. (73mb file size) https://bayheadwx.net/weather/2024/september/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-meso-meso2-truecolor-20_32Z-20241007_map-glm_flash_noBar-100-4n-10-150.gif

Exactly. But more importantly it doesn't matter the strength at landfall except for a very small area near the coast line. What matters is the total integrated kinetic energy (IKE). A category 4 storm 24 hours before landfall will still have the same (or larger!) hurricane force wind field and surge if it landfalls as category 4 or if it weakens to category 2 - the strength of the hurricane only is measured based on the maximum winds in the eyewall, not the total power of the storm. Helene was a massive storm with winds and rain extending far from its core. Milton is likely to be a smaller storm when it reaches peak strength, but if it weakens (which a lot of models indicate) it's doing so because the core is weakening, and the winds spreading outward. If it stays compact, it would have the worst impact over a fairly small area, but weakening actually broadens the area of impact from hurricane strength winds and thus wind-driven (rather than purely low pressure based) coastal storm surges, which could have an even worse impact on mostly enclosed bodies of water such as Tampa Bay where a storm surge can be driven up the bay by winds. History has many examples of weakening storms that have caused massive damage from storm surge and winds - Katrina, Isabel, etc. Just because a storm is weakening does not mean that it has lost its teeth - that takes time, usually multiple days of shear to rip a storm completely apart.

Edit: don’t know why this didn’t embed but it’s cockpit info from a hurricane hunter. https://x.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1841934293066522627

National power outage map: https://poweroutage.us South Carolina 1,327,142 Florida 1,146,329 Georgia 1,074,671 North Carolina 452,415 Virginia 41,302

Seeing areas with 20"+ rainfall. https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ Select Q3 Milti-Sensor in the product type.

Seeing a large cluster of 180+mph winds (highest 185mph) at 5kft on the east side of the eye. Wow.

Here's a screengrab of the lightening - insane:

Look at the velocity "waves" on the western portion of the eyewall. Don't remember seeing that in previous hurricanes:

Impressive winds in the eyewall:

Intense storms always give radar shadows and this comes up every landfalling hurricane.

If you have Radarscope, that is best. If not: local radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=TLH-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad mosaic radar: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-FL_Panhandle-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Until a well defined center of circulation forms (generally when it becomes a Tropical Storm) we won’t get accurate models. The variation in the HAFS-B from 12z to 18z is exactly what to expect until then.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ Select Q3 Multisensor.

0.75" last Tuesday through today 2.29" last Friday through today. 10.27" April 15 through today. Send me some rain please!

Complete wiff for me. 0.11" since the start of this storm. Guess it’s bact to heavy watering of my yard…

Models yesterday gave me up to about 1.75" rain by 5pm today. I have had 0.10".

So much for this breaking the drought hoping radar fills in but looks to be going the wrong way

0.1" here too, and yesterday models were predicting closer to an inch by now. Further overnight storms are way less now… we need rain. I ended up watering some of my plants mid day today.

Definitely accurate map. I have had 5.8" since April 4th, and excluding last night 5.44" near the bay bridge.

Somehow completely missed me again...it has been 2 months since I have had significant, sustained rain.