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Random Chaos

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Everything posted by Random Chaos

  1. For all the people that are talking about "cant have snow after a 60 degree day" back in college I had a upper 70's day followed by 16" of snow. This was in NY state not MD, and April not January, but it definitely can happen.
  2. Wind is really picking up. Temps not falling yet.
  3. Dang, they have a coastal flood advisory up too. Guess no snow. Time to write off winter. Bust. I’ll be back in 2023. *end sarcasm*
  4. 6 hours ago we were saying: "It's the NAM, don't trust it." now we're saying "It's back on board, storm happening!" How I long for the days when all models were this bad I'll take my 14" and run! -- On another topic, COBB output from GFS was indicating 12:1 ratios on average, with some insanely high 22:1 ratios at times. Any chance that will occur? Typically we see 8:1 around here. Also gale warning on the bay. This is going to be fun!
  5. Where is CRAS when you need something to make the NAM look good? At least NAM is on its own for now, but I do worry with these systems where we sit on the northwest side being a cutoff forecast challenge. SREFs look good
  6. Incredible. This -142mph is right next to a +130mph on radar:
  7. I wonder, NOAA Tides and Currents indicates the height was based on high water mark and NWS report on isabel (think it was the SLOSH analysis) indicated Solomons Island guage failed, might be the previous record used by AHPS and LWX is pre-failure height and not the high water mark based height?
  8. Not seeing anything close to this on official guages: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/inundation.html?id=8577330&units=standard&bdate=20211029&edate=20211031&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action= Max today MHHW 3.33 ft Isabel MHHW 5.18 ft
  9. Anne Arundel County, near Chesapeake Bay Bridge:
  10. 2.11" and managed to miss the tornado by a few miles.
  11. Here’s some helicopter footage: https://www.wbaltv.com/article/skyteam-11-video-of-aftermath-of-ida-in-annapolis-maryland/37457104
  12. Not liking the track of that Annapolis area tornado. Way too close to home. Good couplet, debris ball signature.
  13. 162kt (186mph) maybe 100m above the surface.
  14. 132mb vortex message: URNT12 KNHC 291215 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021 A. 29/11:56:10Z B. 28.47 deg N 089.57 deg W C. 700 mb 2519 m D. 932 mb E. 230 deg 34 kt F. CLOSED G. C20 H. 104 kt I. 059 deg 12 nm 11:51:30Z J. 159 deg 138 kt K. 059 deg 10 nm 11:52:30Z L. 105 kt M. 295 deg 10 nm 12:01:00Z N. 018 deg 133 kt O. 298 deg 12 nm 12:02:00Z P. 9 C / 3038 m Q. 23 C / 3052 m R. 3 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.02 / 1 nm U. AF305 1409A IDA OB 11 MAX FL WIND 138 KT 059 / 10 NM 11:52:30Z
  15. Frictional effects often pull hurricanes right of their extrapolated track just before landfall. Doesn’t always happen though, and that part of LA is extremely low and flat. Hoping not with Ida as that would be worse for NOLA.
  16. Turned into a major ice storm here outside Annapolis. Looks like around 1/3" accretion.
  17. Freezing rain and temperatures have dropped back below freezing.
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