Random Chaos

Just switched to snow here. 39F and dropping fast.

Looking at temperatures out in Ohio the HRRR is running close to correct while the NAM 3km is 5F warm. GFS is closer to HRRR than NAM but hard to tell specifics with only 3 hour data. Brrrrr.

I flickered outside Annapolis at the exact same time the plane crashed too. Definitely some brief widespread grid disruption from this. They haven’t started rhe rescue yet - still getting equipment and crews in position - would not be surprised if the plane is still in the tower come morning.

Downburst at up to 90mph in College Park. Nothing for Olney yet. --- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 153 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2022 ...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FROM COLLEGE PARK IN PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY MARYLAND... TODAY, STAFF FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN THE CITY OF COLLEGE PARK IN PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY MARYLAND. THE SURVEY IS IN RESPONSE TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 600-610 PM EDT ON TUESDAY JULY 12 2022. THERE WAS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF COLLEGE PARK, WITH MANY TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. SOME TREES FELL INTO RESIDENCES, PRODUCING STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. PEAK WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80-90 MPH. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURVEY SHOWED THAT THE DEBRIS FELL GENERALLY TOWARDS THE EAST, PRODUCING A DOWNBURST PATTERN. THESE OBSERVATIONS, COUPLED WITH VELOCITY IMAGES FROM THE FAA'S TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AT BWI THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT WHICH MEASURED 85 MPH WINDS AT APPROXIMATELY 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL, ALONG WITH VELOCITY PRODUCTS FROM THE NWS KLWX WSR- 88D IN STERLING VA, CORROBORATE THAT THE MOST LIKELY CAUSE OF STORM DAMAGE IN COLLEGE PARK WAS STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS EMANATING FROM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE. YESTERDAY EVENING'S ESTIMATED WINDS IN COLLEGE PARK ARE EQUIVALENT TO THAT OF A LOW-END EF1 TORNADO. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS THE CITY OF COLLEGE PARK DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS IN ASSISTING WITH THE STORM SURVEY.

0.56" in my gauge yesterday. After it was over, beautiful sunset.

I managed no real wind, just a lot if rain. Storm barely missed me south.

Looks like a broad area circulation over Annapolis, and now a tvs signature from Dover radar per radarscope image.

My rain guage shows 0.76", but that’s way low. First storm only registered 0.04" due to the wind driving the heavy rain straight sideways and not filling the tipping guage. Any suggestions on how to measure storms where the rain simply doesn’t go into the guage’s cone? 2nd storm dumped 0.64" and seemed to rain less than the first storm (but also less windy).

Here’s what NWS multisensor estimates:

I still rather have this thing east than west at this range. Rarely do I see storms move back east when we see a rain event, but we all the time see events move west on us...usually giving us rain as a result. I can live with a day or two of missed model runs for the hope that by mid-week the models are back with a solid hit on us. That said, a fish spinner is definitely possible too. Just hoping that's not the way it goes

Hour 102. Nice h5.

Puking snow over Boston. Big take away, even with the significant h5 changes, is the model is still pumping out a monster storm. Just misses us in this run. I’d rather it be east and dry cold at this range than west and warm rainy.

0z looks very similar to the previous 6z at 144+/-.

I like the run-to-run consistency! Our best storms almost always show that at this range. Snowicane here we come!

What I like: This storm has been periodically showing up on long ranges for several days now. Those that miss are missing east or not developing at all - and it seems like we get a east bias at range so that's in our favor for those that do put out a fish spinner. What I don't like: It's still way too far out! Give it 3-4 days and I'll be onboard, especially if it's a little east of us.

5 feet of snow right on top of Ji and everyone else is in a snow hole.

51.0 / 36.7

Nothing beats the CRAS

985.8mb, temperature up to 49.4F

Winds howling now. 32mph. Gusts to 38. That was a wierd lull I had earlier.

My wind just died: 23mph 10 minutes ago, 1mph now. Temperature spiked too - up 5F in the last 20 minutes to 44.5F. the intense band is almost to me. Pressure also started going back up.

Now I want snownado!

Some pretty intense winds aloft.

It is a severe thunderstorm warning. And a special marine warning for waterspouts and wind!

Waterspouts possible…