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Random Chaos

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  1. Random Chaos
    Wow. Dropsonde found 132kt at the surface in the N eyewall:
  2. Random Chaos
    New eye is starting to clear out now. Estimating the growth during this EWRC looks like the dense convection has more than doubled the radius since yesterday. Before EWRC: After EWRC:
  3. Random Chaos
    Ended with 0.50" rain, don’t think I’ll get more. And a great sunset:
  4. Random Chaos
    More from that same post:
  5. Random Chaos
    Storm over AA County looks good. I’m going to get it soon. Hopefully decent rain with it. Radar is indicating a hail core, hopefully that misses me.
  6. Random Chaos
    Intense hurricanes often create their own weather nearby, impacting shear. Additionally annular hurricanes require light shear to enter a sustained category 5 state. Will be interesting to watch it in this over the next few days to see how the storm and shear interact.
  7. Random Chaos
    At this range it could do anything - exact impact location is impossible to predict. However there are a few things to consider: 1. Stronger storms tend to be more likely to defy model tracks at range. Global models don’t do a good job identifying the core pressure of the storm and therefore use the wrong steering layer. 2. If it makes it into the gulf (not guaranteed given it’s got to thread the needle between Cuba and Yucatan), a very good rule is for everyone in the gulf to be on watch even if you think the storm is nowhere near you. Again steering layers are a big question as fast strengthening or weakening can cause a storm to take a very different track, and in the gulf someone is going to get hit with a landfall.
  8. Random Chaos
    Amazing that for all of yesterday we had zero thunderstorm warnings and 11 tornado warnings. So rare to have TOR's without any severe thunderstorms.
  9. Random Chaos
    Can’t forget about the June 13, 2013 outbreak. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/20130613SevereWx And attached is that 2013 radar as it passed over Rockville.
  10. Random Chaos
  11. Random Chaos
    New Warning northeast of Baltimore: Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 857 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Harford County in northern Maryland... East central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 930 PM EDT. * At 856 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bowleys Quarters, or over Middle River, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Bowleys Quarters around 900 PM EDT. Aberdeen Proving Ground around 910 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Martin State Airport, Magnolia, Chase, Edgewood, and Joppatowne. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 247DEG 22KT 3934 7639 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ BJL
  12. Random Chaos
    400 Dogwood is 500 ft north/south (perpendicular to tornado track) from 3 Holly. That’s a wide tornado track.
  13. Random Chaos
    Looking better again plus new Tor warning
  14. Random Chaos
    Another Tornado warning up in Carrol County: (Edit posted wrong warning) Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Carroll County in north central Maryland... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 732 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Westminster, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Westminster around 735 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Uniontown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 242DEG 12KT 3958 7710 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Geiger
  15. Random Chaos
  16. Random Chaos
    New PDS for the same tornado: Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 729 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 815 PM EDT. * At 728 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Germantown, moving east at 25 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Olney, Aspen Hill, Montgomery Village, and Redland around 735 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Spencerville, Laytonsville, Brookeville, Washington Grove, Sandy Spring, Ednor, Ashton, Brinklow, Derwood, and Burtonsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 247DEG 21KT 3914 7728 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ DHOF
  17. Random Chaos
    Here’s the report from Montgomery County: 631 NWUS51 KLWX 052322 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0711 PM Tornado 1 S Poolesville 39.13N 77.41W 06/05/2024 Montgomery MD Trained Spotter Local spotter confirmed tornado lofting debris into the air. && Event Number LWX2403236 $$
  18. Random Chaos
    PDS: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 722 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Boyds, or near Poolesville, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Germantown, Gaithersburg, Montgomery Village, North Potomac, and Boyds around 725 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Dawsonville and Darnestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 258DEG 18KT 3915 7735 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ DHOF
  19. Random Chaos
    Great signature: Edit: New image - looks like maybe a debris ball on CC:
  20. Random Chaos
    System just east of Poolsville looks like it has a couplet and hook.
  21. Random Chaos
    And another north of Baltimore: Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 659 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... West central Harford County in northern Maryland... Northeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 659 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Hampton, or near Cockeysville, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Cockeysville, Carney, Perry Hall, Rossville, Timonium, White Marsh, Fallston, Hampton, Kingsville, and Pleasant Hills around 705 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Nottingham, Glen Arm, Fork, Benson, Fullerton, Baldwin, Lutherville, Long Green, Eudowood, and Hydes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 210DEG 11KT 3940 7657 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ DHOF
  22. Random Chaos
    Another TOR further north: Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 700 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Walkersville, or near Frederick, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Frederick County in north central Maryland, including the following locations... Libertytown and Unionville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 246DEG 18KT 3947 7730 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ DHOF
  23. Random Chaos
    Huge new TOR - multiple rotating centers: Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 653 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 652 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing brief tornadoes were located along a line extending from 6 miles east of Point Of Rocks to near Poolesville to Leesburg, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * These dangerous storms will be near... Leesburg, Lansdowne, and Poolesville around 700 PM EDT. Boyds around 705 PM EDT. Germantown and Damascus around 710 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Clarksburg, Dickerson, Beallsville, Dawsonville, Tuscarora, Barnesville, and Darnestown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 259DEG 16KT 3926 7743 3919 7749 3913 7754 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ DHOF
  24. Random Chaos
    Look at differential phase for the Leesburg tor. I’d post but am on a tablet at the moment and can’t get the size small enough. edit, has weakened since i looked.
  25. Random Chaos
    Pretty decent couplet on that storm north of Leesburg:
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