Chinook

This might be the beginning of higher reflectivity for some areas near Cleveland over to Erie.

There are currently some storm reports of (just) 3" to 3.5" along I-25 with 5-6" at Cheyenne. I'm not sure if some final storm reports will show values a lot different than that. The radar was impressive early in the storm, that is, 0500z to 0700z. Fort Collins had the more impressive snow rates and/or low visibility at 0600z and for a few hours past that point. I seems as though Denver got decent snow rates.

Here is a storm that is listed as the #34 biggest NOAA-calculated NESIS storm. The Blizzard of 2006. It was quite impactful, and seemingly did not have an extremely low pressure at the time shown here on these charts. It didn't have a very high pressure north of the storm. It didn't seem to follow the rules as far as the blocking or convergent jet structure. I think it just kind of hit the frontogenesis factors right, for a long time.

Winter storm warning for most of Larimer and Boulder Counties now, also note this was issued this afternoon, as you see this winter storm warning existed while it was 66-67 degrees

New GFS. I wonder if there's much of a chance for the 9" stuff in Kansas. But anyway, probably a very reasonable ill-timed holiday weekend storm to pump up the snowpack for the winter.

Models have been showing a fairly standard sort of snow system with upslope enhancement. It's now close enough to be in the NWS 48-hour official gridded forecast

I recently watched a video on Youtube, today, about the Cowboys vs. Dolphins memorable sleet-game of 1993, Thanksgiving Day, which was 11/25/93. Players were slipping on the sleet. Let's take a look at the weather system. The cold front seems like it moved well southeast of Dallas by game time. There was precipitation in a band from SW to NE across the Southern Plains. Apparently this system gave all sleet to Dallas for before/during this game. The 850mb temperatures were above freezing according to this NARR reanalysis, and the 1000-500mb thicknesses well above the typical value 5400m for snow. Surface analysis by the NWS said Dallas had 31 degrees with a dew point of 15 degrees at 12z (6:00AM). By my guess, the surface temperature was just below freezing with sleet falling, and 850mb temperatures just above freezing to possibly 2 degrees C.

these are, I believe, the confirmed tornadoes today

SPC update today, at 1730z, with 10% hatched for tornadoes and 30% for a small area for severe winds, 15% for hail.

On Monday, 11/20, we will have our first tornado threat for the late fall/winter of 2023-2024. The SPC has a slight risk for 11/20, and a marginal for tomorrow (11/19). I expect a fairly high level of convection late in the day on 11/20, possibly around 00z. I'm sure weather forecasters will monitoring the weather much earlier than 00z. 500mb winds will be about 65 knots in Louisiana.

I am watching Washington Vs Oregon State at Corvallis right now. There is quite a bit of rain. There were two fumbles within about a minute, if I remember correctly.

For those who like to track the weather with surface observations: The Aviation Weather Center has upgraded its interface for showing surface observations, with fronts, SLP, radar, satellite, and other related overlays

Here are two satellite pictures of the southern Plains today. I think this is called transverse banding of cirrus clouds. There have been a lot of new cloud developments today across the country today. A complex jet stream pattern and cold front are pushing into the Plains

Today was quite warm in the mid to northern Plains, up to 23 degrees above average. Many of the recent days have been 60-70 in the mid-Plains. Cheyenne at 6100 feet above sea level was not far from daily high temperature records recently. Rapid City SD had a high 71 today, and a low of 27. The 71 was only 3 degrees lower than the daily record, 74 degrees. As you can imagine, very low moisture allowed the temperature to fall to 27. Yesterday, Minneapolis had a high of 66, compared to a record daily high of 71.

Detroit Metro was high 62, low 31. So Ann Arbor had a quick dip in temperatures below 30 that many areas didn't exactly get. I got used to this sort of weather out West with fairly typical temperature swings with dew points in the 20's and many ideal radiational conditions. From areas of Loveland I could see a smaller mountain north of Fort Collins over 21 miles away, down to the far-off Indian Peaks, well south of Long's Peak, 35-50 miles

Shown below are GFS ensemble members SLP/precip for two different hours well into the future. A strong jet stream will dive through the Rockies. There will be new trough and surface low in the southern Plains. The low pressure will lift northward to the GL/OV, but details on the SLP or rain coverage could change a lot. A few ensembles have snow for Chicago. At this time, almost no GFS ensemble members have over 2" for Chicago, and of course there's not much agreement on snow for the Upper Midwest. In my recent experiences, the surface temperature here is usually about 5 degrees above what the NWS forecasts a few days out. Maybe it's just the drought and warmer airmasses are a little stronger than the GFS thinks.

I am going to post this here because I don't know if the East Coasters are even discussing this. Look at this crazy weather pattern off the coast in a few days. There will be a possible hurricane or tropical storm moving into Haiti and moving northeastward. Currently there is subtropical jet based disturbance in the south. The low hangs around near Mobile Alabama, but weakens. Then the 500mb trough redevelops a low near Miami. This will ride northwards with the mild air and heavy rain and thunderstorms offshore. It goes to Cape Cod and New Brunswick. The cold air will phase into the system in Quebec for perhaps a heavy snow storm.

Unusually snowy weather hammered Anchorage. A strong low pressure hit the area from the south last week, and more snowy weather occurred after that low. As it says in the article, Anchorage reported 2.5 ft of snow last week. The CoCoRAHS plot says 41.1" in 8 days in SE Anchorage city.

Finally the subtropical jet is starting to look like a real subtropical jet. There is a rain storm in the southern half of Texas and areas of the Mexican plateau tonight. This is the sort of thing that we are looking for to pick up with the El Nino. Really, this is the first incidence of an El Nino type storm for the southern USA. Obviously we are trying to break free from the grip of La Nina-based droughts in the South. Final posted image: compare this Drought Monitor to one from November 2011, after the La Nina of 2010-2011 (and continuing onward in 2011). In our current state, a minor La Nina held on for a long time, but it wasn't as strong as 2010-2011 winter

some types of oak leaves I never saw in Colorado, plus some others

There have been scattered of rain showers with a couple of lightning bolts in Chicagoland. (you can see 5 bolt symbols on here if you look closely) It seems like they have the shape of supercells at times, but don't really have noticeable rotation on the SRV radar screen.

Today, temperatures in Colorado are like summer, but sunset at Fort Collins is at 4:52PM, considering the calculation expects a completely flat landscape. Here at my place in Ohio, sunset is at 5:23 Eastern. That feels different, as the solar noon time is pretty much a half hour later at all times. I think it's almost completely based off how the longitude lines up with your time zone. Keep checking the models for a light snow event later this week.

Where are the fantasy snowstorms now? For the GEFS temperature anomalies, there are very few 6-hour periods below normal for me, in the next 384 hours!

Anybody remember this snow storm? It sort of maxed out in and near Cedar Rapids to Madison Milwaukee on 2/6/2008

a good bit of snow has melted at 8000 ft as the RMNP pictures show. I guess the Alpine Visitor Center one hasn't updated in the afternoon. here are some beautiful RMNP pics today with lenticulars east