roardog

There’s a difference between a winter that’s been too warm to keep a snowpack and one that’s not. Yes, it’s been a dry winter all over the Midwest. Northern Wisconsin might not have much snow cover right now but at least it’s been cold enough to freeze up the lakes for activities like ice fishing which is still a big part of the economy in those areas. That’s the big difference between this winter and last winter. Snow cover in non lake effect areas will always be hit and miss. 2 years ago Minnesota was getting buried with snow and had plenty of cold too so not everywhere had a “bad” winter 2 years ago.

Looking ahead at the pattern on the ensembles, I don’t know how anyone can complain about that look. -PNA, WAR, ridging into Alaska bringing continuous Arctic air into the country. The Gulf should be wide open with that WAR and it’ll be meeting up with bitter cold air. The only question is where will the boundary be. I think some people here get too caught up in watching individual operational runs and don’t stop to look at the big picture.

I think the lack of extreme cold this month has been more about this airmass being of Canadian origin instead of originating in Siberia. That’s about to change with the airmass coming this weekend into the beginning of next week. That has the potential to produce some legit extreme cold.

Like I always say, “warm” weather around here in winter isn’t warm so it might as well just feel and look like winter.

Next week the lake effect will probably be the dust sized flakes that barely accumulate.

What’s funny is the original Weatherbell forecast issued Nov 27 was for January to be very mild over the entire country. A big portion of the country was higher than +3. They changed that forecast dramatically later in December. JB is now forecasting a big flip for late January into February pretty much the same as you are. So, you better change your forecast now. lol

Talking futility on Jan.10th. lol. You live in an area that could get no snow the rest of winter and still get over 17.7 in March and April.

It was probably sublimation. If it’s warm and wet, it melts and if it’s cold and dry, it sublimates. Just can’t win. lol.

Wasn’t the high temp something like 24F there?

I know not everyone lives in a lake effect snow belt but when you see the lake effect areas getting buried in December, that means it’s a cold, wintry pattern everywhere around our area. There was ice fishing going on around here in December. That hasn’t been happening in very many Decembers the last 10 years. I know I’ve had a little more snow so far than many in this sub but this winter has at least felt like winter and not an extended November.

Makes sense. Heading south to see the snow. Which poster is driving?

You're actually in a great spot for W flow lake effect. Lake Michigan is narrow west of here so that's the worst wind direction to get Lake Michigan stuff around here. Maybe Monday's NE and N flow can get some Lake Huron stuff here.

Going old school, I would start watching later this month to see if we start seeing any big positive SOI days. That would probably give us a hint of when SE ridging might be coming. The SOI is negative now and has been for a little while which is a good indicator of the coming/continuing eastern trough. It'll be interesting to see if the weeklies are on to something or if it's just going to Nina Feb climo.

Need that in Saukville to see if the palms can make it.

While the coming airmass this week isn’t extreme for January standards, It would still be plenty cold enough to go below zero at night if there was snow cover.

I had about an inch last night so I have about 2 inches on the ground now. That’s better than bare ground when it’s going to be below freezing for an extended period like we’re going to be.

Icon is north again. Gets the snow into Chicago and even as far north as I-69 in Michigan.

Last year was technically a super Nino. I mean, those are always bad everywhere. There was no hope.

Rgem might be trying at 84 hours to go north.

Now the Icon brings snow as far north as Detroit. lol

It’s actually better than mild and dry IMO. When it’s mild in January, it seems like it’s foggy and dreary everyday.

Nothing that you would consider extreme cold for January standards is really shown but there should be a nice stretch of below freezing temps for many in the sub. Could actually be the longest stretch we have had in a few years.

Live a little and just set it to 70 for goodness sake.

There are some subtle changes at the end of the ensembles like a weaker Aleutian trough and lower heights/reduced high latitude blocking but they still have a +PNA continuing right to the end. That tweet is showing the weeklies.

It’s all about timing. Here we ended up about .7 degrees above normal(so essentially normal) with about 15 inches of snow. The torch at the very end of the month is obviously what took it into the positive departures albeit barely. So overall not a bad winter month here.