roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Mid 40s here this morning. Feels refreshing.
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Nice cool day today. Only in the mid 60s with lots of clouds. Feels nice.
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They are but what I'm saying is we often see H5 forecasts that don't make sense with 2m temp forecasts. You'll see a forecast in the medium range for a massive ridge over Alaska in January with a flow directly from the north pole into the northern plains and the 2m temp anomalies will show normal or barely below normal. This is where you look at that map and realize it would be frigid in that location if that actual H5 forecast verified.
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Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.
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We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.
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It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super.
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This is off topic but I have memories of a hot June in the mid 1990s and I always feel like I’m remembering 1995 because it was a hot summer. However, I don’t think June of 1995 was actually warm. I wonder if I’m remembering 1994.
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Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some.
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I think the overall point of posting that map was to show that despite being hot in the Midwest and northeast, the country had a lot of well below normal temperatures in the western half on Sunday. There was some impressive chill out there even if the daily departures weren’t -30.
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If I’m reading that map correctly, it looks like those are temp departures at 21Z Jun 22nd. What don’t you believe about that map? I looked up Cut Bank, Montana for example and they were in the mid 40s at 21Z Sunday and their normal temps are in the low 70s. So that looks pretty accurate to me.
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The lower dewpoints today allowed the temps to get higher. I see Oscoda had a 98.6F reading today. I’m not sure what the official high was there. They’re helped by downsloping though.
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Yeah. The dewpoints fell into the mid to upper 60s today. I think the sky was literally cloud free today. It must be very strongly capped.
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The impressive part of this heat wave is just the atmosphere staying well mixed during the night causing such high minimums. The fact that we're so close to the most daylight of the year probably helps too. The high temps haven't been anything special at all around here.
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Another thing is when the dewpoints get that high, there’s usually a lot of cumulus development even with a capped atmosphere which also helps limit the highs. Some of the hottest actual temps I can remember come with dewpoints at or below 60. I think that also helps to limit the cumulus development leading to higher temps. It’s just really hard to get extreme highs with dewpoints well into the 70s. Just look at Florida all summer.
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How many times have we seen a MCS two hundred miles to the north send a lake enhanced outflow down the lake causing a NE wind and big drop in temps? It happens over here with Lake Huron too. You guys should be in the clear from that by Sunday though.
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Yeah. If dewpoints really are in the mid 70s, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of low 90s for highs. Nights on the other hand are going to be awful.
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Yeah. It seems people that don’t follow the weather always have this misconception that drastic daily changes in weather and or extreme heat or cold never used to happen. It doesn’t help when any media story about the weather basically reinforces that idea.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it. -
2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
roardog replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something. -
This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.
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You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that.
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Yeah. We saw the -PDO hold in what was I believe technically a super Nino. So it’s not like it’s never happened before during a very -PDO regime.
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At least we're now in the short 3 months or so where even normal temperatures are pleasant.
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82-83 and 97-98 are what I think of when I think of a very strong El Niño winter in the Midwest. I actually had quite a bit of wet 32F snow in 15-16, it just always started melting shortly after it fell. 15-16 was missing the “dry” part of a strong Nino around here.
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I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel.
