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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    Try too hard? In what way? I mean I know I get vigorously defensive when folks attack me, and I gotta work on that...but I'd like to know what you mean.
  2. Maestrobjwa
    That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically.
  3. Maestrobjwa
    But but wait a minute anything - C. is la nina right? And that's what climate prediction models have been saying, right??? That la nina is more likely at the moment. But according to @mattie g I thought I interpreted this incorrectly? As far as the other thing about not focusing on next year yet...noted. But don't sit up here and say I have no real knowledge--Uncalled for. Some of you have no mercy whatsoever. I am learning. P.S. This is a LONG range thread. Next year is still long range. So a passing mention isn't out of bounds. Like actually...nothing I said is out of bounds for this thread. I just made a statement about next year just as others have also stated about next year.
  4. Maestrobjwa
    La ninas aren't always brutal, but they have a low ceiling. Highest total in the cities was 18" the one year (17-18 I believe). That was reached by a lot of 1-2" nickle and dime events which is...okay. But of the 5 most recent ones...that was the ceiling. And they are a pain in the butt to track with all the NS dominance and interference, the Miller Bs, the se ridge, snow holes, and other annoyances. Contrast that with what you could get in a niño. Now, those can certainly fail too...but looking at them in general, the odds are just better here. If a niño doesn't go full-on torch a la 1997-98, you always have a chance!
  5. Maestrobjwa
    La nina isn't it? And descending solar, and another factor someone pointed out earlier..not great for snow chances. Haven't heard anything different...that's why I've been keying in on this winter hoping it delivers above average.
  6. Maestrobjwa
    This may be the somewhat rate instance where a 2010 comparison isn't JB-level analog hyping, lol
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Oh yes I know. Nothing in weather is guaranteed--one thing I've learned the hard way. Much chaos in weather outcomes! I don't think it's so much expecting something to definitely happen; more like seeing the best shot--and I'd argue the only legit one--we've had in 8 years and just reallllly hoping we don't miss, given how few chances we've had.
  8. Maestrobjwa
    Given what's coming up next year, we need that 30" or close. 2014-2016 all had at least 30, 57-58 & 77-78 & 78-79 went over that too. Now if it's spread out like you described, I think I'd take that. Ngl though--I want a mecs+ because it's been 8 years, and I know we're not gonna have much of a shot at one the next 1-2 years at least...so may as well hunt the big dog this year! Like psu said this is our best chance in 8 years...to not get a big storm out of it would be a bit disappointing..but I'd still enjoy it if it were more spread out.
  9. Maestrobjwa
    Oh yeah I know we're like 5-6 from climo. It's just...I'm struggling to get past the fact that historically for the lowlands, MECS storms (those are 12-18", correct?) have never happened that late in Feb, and only maybe once or twice in March! I mean there must be a reason for that....or...maybe this year will be an anomaly since the block is setting up later than it usual. Are there any Niños on record where a MECS happened this late?
  10. Maestrobjwa
    To climo? While I guess that would be something at least...I don't see how we get to the 30 inch forecasts of some playing that game. That's gonna require one of those shots to be a MECS. No way the cities get above climo without that (unless we get like 3 moderate events). Would've felt more comfortable if this changed happened 1-2 weeks earlier, but you never know. While I still feel like we're kinda flirting with the last part of our usual window...thankfully it's still early...so we'll just have to patient until we get closer.
  11. Maestrobjwa
    So you'd say in this fantasy run that it looked that way? (That wave looked like sitting under that block for 3 days, lol) P.S. Not trying to overanalyze a fantasy run. I do like to use those to just a rough general idea of what scenarios could work and any consistent clues.
  12. Maestrobjwa
    The whole end of that run was lol But what's interesting is how guidance continues to want to eject an stj wave around the PD period...Interested to see if that continues this week.
  13. Maestrobjwa
    I will support you in this endeavor (there's gonna have to be some kind of penalty if you fall of the wagon though.t.like something you genuinely hate doing, lol
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Same thing I heard. Not sure what the other two are talking about...at not time was early Feb hyped to be a great period. I mean maybe somebody mentioned that a threat in the LR *might* have a chance...but it was never "This is when the pattern flips".
  15. Maestrobjwa
    Why? He said it seemed like a can-kick in the LR...and to me it isn't. Feels like a perception as folks are understandably antsy. I just never saw the 14th as a big window but after based on the discussion.
  16. Maestrobjwa
    I see you've only been in here since late 2022 so I'll give ya a pass on this take, lol Ya don't know how deep it runs, sir/ma'am
  17. Maestrobjwa
    There is no can-kick. What's mid February? Er...the 15th? Lol If I were you I'd follow what the most knowledgeable poster like CAPE & PSU , Brooklynwx are saying...(and you KNOW PSU would say something if things weren't looking as great, lol). But all of them have been saying...PATIENCE. Most of the tastiest maps have been dated around PD weekend at the earliest. There's also been discussion about the 20-23rd. That is a long ways away...so any "can kick" as of now is more a result of impatient perception than reality. Have you tried taking a day off of this board?
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Panic Room...
  19. Maestrobjwa
    There is a Panic Room thread, folks...
  20. Maestrobjwa
    What are you doing? Lol
  21. Maestrobjwa
    We had freezing rain here for awhile with the second storm (happened that night around 8...I remember because I was ungratefully protesting and looking at my computer, lol...I could slap 19 year-old me for that!)
  22. Maestrobjwa
    CAPE lost his grammar...it may be getting serious folks
  23. Maestrobjwa
    No it didn't, lol I mean two weeks ago the good posters in here were saying we'd likely have to kick that week. Nothing else has changed (and appears to be getting better!)
  24. Maestrobjwa
    Hm...I mean John is 2-0 against Jim so far, so ya wonder about the law of averages, lol Hard to say--gotta see what the heck we look like next year first!
  25. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah that's a mystery. Why just those games and no where else? It makes zero sense. I mean how do you get a new OC in Monken, the dude is good all year, then chokes in the big moment just like Roman did? And then...Harbs literally yells the sideline reporter "We need to run the ball more". But then...didn't happen. Not sure why he didn't just call up there and tell Monk to run it...UNLESS, as someone suggested, he doesn't like undermining his coordinators during a game. Now, I don't know how things usually go with HCs and their coordinators in-game (that's a topic I'd like to look into), but for crying out loud...you'd think he just calls up to the booth and say something.
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