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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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And yeah I mean...aren't we talking about the timing of a phase here? No way that's gonna be resolved yet. The fact that guidance got less suppressed over the last 2-3 cycles...me thinks that's progress (Take that fwiw since it could bevmy baby once the paperwork is approved, so I'll always be biased)
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This one may take a bit to figure out....At first it looked like it was either phased bomb or suppressed. And I guess that is still technically the case... But today we've seen the trend away from suppression where the wave has no chance, to with different solutions to the NS interactions. Pull up a chair cause it's gonna be awhile to sort out
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And under this block? Yep, drunk, lol
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Yep. If we're talking about that interaction, ain't no way we can know for sure. But I would like to see the trend of less suppressed continue...that way we can take our chances on getting a phase.
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"Oh the Places You'll Jebwalk!"
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2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
I was about to say...y'all said two different things and I just assumed one of you was drinking -
2024 Valentines Day Who the Hell Knows - Comeback Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to DDweatherman's topic in Mid Atlantic
Gotta wonder if that "shear" is just a nam thing. -
Ehh always a bunch of blue tape with these people...
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I'll go file the adoption papers with his agency. I'm confident it will be granted... @Ji! Consultation requested
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Then I'll claim PD as MY baby then! I think he can be the most special baby on the models if he puts his mind to it and NOBODY will tell me otherwise! I'll stay with it till I can't no mo...so may the best baby win
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So I'm guessing that's just something more random that just so happens to be a thing this winter? (In the case of PD I guess we need that ns interaction like a couple of you have mentioned).
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Why do you think that is?
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I'd daresay this was close...but more experienced minds can weigh seeing as I'm still a bit H5 illiterate
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Doesn't seem AS suppressed if that means anything.
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Yeah isn't the wave interaction closer this time? Just wondering if it may be a tad soon to give up on it just yet.
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But hang on though...is a phase completely out of the question for thar wave?
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Every model run thar does that it just looks like the wave says PD3 as it slides south...man the psu storm...hope it works. We can't get shutout this month and gamble with March to try to get to 25-30" like many predictions did. We may have an idea in 10 days...(when that storm would be in modeling range)
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Man that block squashing a would be PD3 (or just a day after) wave on the 12z gfs and gem hurt my feelings, lol We gotta be tracking by next week or else y'all might have to rebuild this forum
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Dude that would've been a frickin' disaster. You know, sometimes things happen for a reason...Just like Andrews saving that lady's life on that plane. We play and he's not there...we play and the Zay scandal could've marred the whole thing!
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I have a more superstitious mind (though I resist calling it superstition)...he doesn't. Of course it's random...yet why is there discussion about starting threads being bad luck or whatever? Because some are more superstitious than others!
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That wasn't necessary. To simplify...It's not logical--I look at some sports things the same way. When they say "This team is 14-1 when this happens". Of course it doesn't actualy change the outcome...just a trend. Folks use these "trends" to bet because they "feel" like they have a better chance. For example...the starting a thread debate we have here every year! It has nothing to do with how a storm goes...and yet some feel that you "jinx" it by starting it too soon. It's not logical, but people think that way, lol That's the sum total of what I feel with those dates. It's not based in logic as I stated a couple times...if I gambled I wouldn't pick the dates! But no scientific reason...and eventually (even this month) we get something on those dates and poof, trend over, ya feel better about it. But until then
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Well, I already said why I'm big snow hunting this year in particular...but after my Tuesday debacle, I'm pretty sure nobody wants me to re-litigate that. Now, please don't misunderstand me...this doesn't mean I don't appreciate a 6-10" event. That'd be good!! And I've mentioned on more than one occasion that I've learned recently to enjoy even the small ones (especially in Ninas where that's all you can muster) However, THIS year...when you have a shot, AND it's been this long without a big dog, why not root for it?
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Since we're between model cycles, the part of my brain that, for whatever reason attaches meaning to dates and such just can't get past this list...Top 25 snowstorms in Baltimore and not a one the last week of Feb...Even 2010 missed that week! Have an illogical distrust of it... Side note: All the ones I marked happened on PD weekend that year...just sayin' (although 2014 was technically Thurs-Fri)
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While He doesn't HAVE to do it, I'd sure love it if He did And hey listen, while I'd certainly take a big snow whatever day of the week...but man, how can ya not at least imagine that? I mean you've got ingredients...and it's a Niño that's not a torch, a strong stj wave coming up PD weekend, blocking...theoretically it feels like it's the closest setup we've had for a PD3 since. But hey, maybe I'm being to snow-romantic
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Lol Hey don't get me wrong, I'll take a big snow any day of the week...I just illogically don't trust stuff to go right after PD-March 1st....at least for a big storm (12"+) anyway. No changing that part of me brain until it actually happens
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