Maestrobjwa

If ya consider an inch a trackable event...I mean it can't end up being but an inch or two right?

Tell me who here accurately predicted how this winter would go, lol

Dang...if that's the case, we are DUE in 2019-20...Three straight years below 20" for the corridor (even though we did hit 15" last year). But I have to wonder...when this winter is over (assuming we don't rebound), what will we say sank the winter (and why nobody could see it coming). There have got to be a factor(s) out in the Pacific we can point to and say "yep, that did it". This year seems to be it's own analog, but...I find it hard to accept that things just went bad for no foreseeable reason. Is it the MJO bully, or was something else at play as well?

Then that's not good...I mean, honestly, how much of a nail would this be? (you sound like this would kill the month, unless I'm interpreting you wrong) I'm trying to figure out whether to put this winter away or not.

Wow are we seriously that close? (And could the next few days be an actual "make or break" point for the winter?)

If you wouldn't mind...could you circle where the neg nao is on that panel? I still don't know what it looks like, lol

Never said I expected it (I'm aware of the mean)...just that I prefer it. Now if I somewhat expect anything...based on our history it's this: that we hit about 20" at least every 3-4 years (and a few times hitting at least that 2 or 3 years in a row like we did between 2013/14 and 2015/16) ...now, not surprisingly, we hit the median more often! Only a few times did we go longer than that...Overall, Baltimore history has a "we're due" pattern...so we could be close if we ain't there already!

So we can indeed see the end of it in the panel you just showed?

Bob Chill time...lol But this time, your two week label is gonna HAVE to have legs--no more time for anymore two week stints!

Top 4 government shutdowns...each lasting longer than 12 days...all followed by winters that had a big snowstorm. Dec. 1995-early January 1996 being the longest and the last time a shutdown went from December to January...and we all know what happened there!) But shall the trend continue?...well, it seems we have a little over a month to find out!

True. I think mediocre is indeed a better term (I think the close misses just made it feel worse than that, lol) Hard to imagine Baltimore doesn't break double digits this year...we only need 3 more! But of course...my preference is the average of at leadt 20" as opposed to the median!

So now the pna is trying to play bad guy, smh Always somethin'! But long shutdowns precede snow...I'm tryin' to hang onto that...lol

For me, anything below 20 inches (Baltimore average) isn't a great winter. And to be fair, the way a lot of us got to 15 inches or so was the most dissatisfying way to get there: not one time did I have to shovel. A winter where I don't have to shovel is not a good one in my book. (at least this winter I shoveled once for the first time since 2016!)

Is that even reliable this far in advance? I hope that's not the case (or that perhaps it can at least be a neutral and not nina). We can't waste two winters of low solar and not cash in...Looking at our history, most of the time we did cash in (except maybe the 1979-80 season). All season I have had some reserve hope for 2019-20 winter in case this one would've gone terribly. But we shall see...

So you think it still has a chance? (Are the precip panels on the ops misleading? I had assumed there wasn't much there because it looks like a bunch of dots, lol)

The run hasn't finished yet, lol

So what will we call this when all is set and done, then? Positive neutral? (And I hope next winter we get another shot at a legit weak-moderate Niño)

I'm starting to not believe we can even have a neg-NAO anymore, smh What has it been now, 9 years???

Oof, that would hurt...but at least we wouldn't be suffering alone, lol So we'd be lookin' at what, 7-10 days of a torch if that were to verify?

I hope so too...because once ya start saying "pattern relax" in February...time starts gettin' a bit short!!

Darn...Well, hopefully we can have another day 7 event to track by midweek (unless this one can be ressurected)

Probably a good idea!

Now the question is how could it turn up the coast? Doesn't seem like that can happen unless it phases, right? (After last month, I'm not sure we wanna rely on that southern piece trending north, lol)

We had one fantasy run of the ICON, man...Nothing "happened" to the coastal. It's only just showing up on the GFS again.

Wow so the Euro is actually the most bullish model right now? Lol Interesting!