Maestrobjwa

Got a question about this...Why is it that areas in the southern half of the state seem to be more prone to severe weather? Or am I just imagining that? (Seems like the northeast part of the state sees a little more too...nothing like an Aberdeen/northeast, MD thunderstorm, lol)

Dang so what is this...just a southern MD/DC event? Had no idea this was an "event" per se...I knew it was supposed to be heavy rain or whatever but...dang, lol

See I'm expecting to see plenty more blue on the screen due to la nina...but I'm just keeping any hopes it'll be blue in the right places at a BARE minimum if that, lol

Dang I had to strain to see that! Lol

What do you mean, dude? Lol

Bathetic? Lol

I am so glad I wasn't on this board back then...because I really was not aware of what the models had been showing a few days before! I mean the miss still hurt, but it's just not as vivid...so ignorance was bliss, lol But knowing what I do now about ninas...I woulda never trusted that until it was a maxium of 12 hours away!

Now if you would...and apologies if I'm sounding a bit jumbled... I'm trying to figure out visually what is required blocking-wise to get what we got in 1996. Let's say we compare the December 2010 heartbreaker with the blizzard of 96. Now visually...I remember the snowfall predictions of Dec. 2010 being increased on the northeast part of the map. What would have needed to happen to push that storm much further southwest so that we get hit flush? Would the blocking we had in 1996 have gotten that done?

I think this picture here should resolve all arguments about why our geography is bad during ninas: Man THIS is nina at her worst here. An incredibly annoying topography lesson right here, lol (this was from March 2018 I believe...what I call the great lakes low SCREW-OVER )

Not expecting it to "change"...actually I'm dreading a change for the worse. Prior to this stretch, it seemed more predictable; every 3-5 years you were guaranteed to see one actual above average winter. But now...we are pushing that. 2016 will have been 5 years ago this winter. Looking at our records...only twice did we go more than 4-5 years without going above the 20" mark (that's a personal mark for me that separates good from great. I'm lowering the bar for "decent" to 18"). But point is, you could time it with a watch the last 30 years: 3-4 years...you get a 12" snowstorm, 6-7 years...a 2-footer. Before 1990...you still got above 20" every 3-4 years with or without one huge snowfall. But now...I hear talk of that dang Hadley cell or whatever and I'm wondering it that's gonna muck up our climo and make snow even harder to get. So if anything, I'm fearing change in that direction...and I hope it won't go that way.

There's not much difference between median and mea...just three inches, lol (median=15 and average=18 does it not?) And dude...I AM trying to have realistic expectations. The heck do you think I'm trying to figure this out for? To figure out just what TO expect, because that definition has shifted since 2016. I'm not locked onto any solution or expectation...but yes, I am a bit concerned about having to wait more years in between than we've had to the last 30 years...it's a bit of a depressing prospect. Hoping for the best, though... And no I can't relocate anytime soon (kinda how folks toss that around as if everybody can uproot their lives at the drop of a hat just for snow, lol)

And dude...we might be about to test that a bit...gonna be five years this year, lol Man I hope stuff ain't broke in such a way that we gotta start waiting even longer for big winters! Life on this side is too short to have to wait 6+ years for an above average winter, lol My biggest fear is that stuff is so broke big winters are gonna be even harder to come by, smh

Now I've contemplated that argument about the strength (or lack thereof) of correlation...So you're better with statistics, so I'll just reiterate what I posted several months ago: I counted 11 solar minimums since 1902. Now...is 11 times still too small of a sample size? And if so...is the reason because there could've been some coincidences mixed in? I made a post of the listed minimums and matched them up with the two winters that followed them. And each time...at least one of the two were above average except for the ones following the 1996 "bottom" (but that was the one time where the benefit came just before). Now is there something else to look at where we could gain more insight?

http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-minimum-most-likely-occurred-in-december-2019 So according to this...they think it's possible that we did indeed hit the bottom back in December. So I'd imagine...if the "lag" in the benefit of previous solar minimums is true, then if we are to benefit from this one at all, we'd probably have to see it this winter. But if we don't...seems to me like we might have to consider that not even the solar min works anymore, smh BUT...on the other hand...hey, if we hit the magic 18" mark or go above in a nina, we might be able to say it still works, haha

What I found interesting about them last year was...not even THEY forecasted in big storms for last winter like they usually tend to do! That shoulda warned us of last winter's drudgery, lol

Black Panther was Bozeman's 9th symphony. Some greats make their last crowning work just a few years (or less) before they pass; Black Panther is his! Rest in Power...

And he was battling colon cancer all through the Black Panther movie...talk about a true super hero! I've been hearing how medical researchers have been raising the concern about younger people getting colon cancer lately (just look at Trey Mancini, for crying out loud!) I pray they can figure out why...

Praying for you and all the other teachers that have been struggling. It just sucks that the situation is so lose-lose in a lot of school districts.

They clearly don't have enough exodus... (okay I'll step out now)

I don't think some brains here are separating the digital reality to the physical on here...sweet mercy above. 150mph...155...tiny little digital things that don't make a bit of difference with the reality of the storm!

Translation?

Perfect, lol

@psuhoffman And also when you have some time...could you run through exactly what factors made 1995-96 do what it did?

Ya know...as we were going through the doldrums of last winter...I always wondered what's worse: A winter like last year that torches the entire time, or a la nina winter like that one that can break ya heart with the "we're too far southwest" close misses. I don't know man...I'm tempted to pick the torch, because I get nearby snow envy...but at least la ninas can still be cold sometimes (and scenery snow isn't completely out of the equation)