Maestrobjwa

Watch out Bob...we might be seein' a new side of Ji that might be tryin' to replace ya!

Mid-Atlantic Winters: Bootlegin' neg Nao's since 2014...lol

Was gonna say...perhaps this represents a bit if potential?...Like if the timing were better?

That's the million dollar question...Why does snow have to be emotional for some? I would love for a psychological opinion on this, lol I have to wonder whether it's misplaced dreaming or anticipation for something "bigger" or more exciting, than the routine...It provides a change to the environment...creating another "world" if you will...And so, if a model shows that it could snow, now you hope for that escape, that newness...and when it doesn't happen, there's a disappointment because you don't get to enter that "world" that time, and have to go on with the hum-drum. I guess eventually, once the season is over and you know meaningful snow is impossible outside of winter, expectations/anticipations get placed elsewhere. It's a strange psychology...but one I would love to have a better handle on!

Just in general...why does this winter seem to be baffling even the best meteorological minds? Is it somehow behaving more strangely than other winters, or?

People in MD be like...

Kinda looks like the 18z FV3 lololol C'mon Bearing Sea Rule! Ya got this last storm right!

So I mean...if there was still potential for this thing...wouldn't there be at least a little more ensemble support at this point? (I know op runs are jumpy...but is it possible we see a run where they ensembles suddenly jump on it?)

Oh trust me I've heard that message loud and clear...(I feel like we oughta add a tag to both this and the other thread that says "chaos tracking", lol) Cranky's "benchmark" approach would be wise here...Wednesday to start taking seriously at the earliest!

Wow--Totally different from what his older brother put put this run, lol P.S. (and you and psu are quickly turning this thread R-rated with your talk of German models and porn, ya scadals!)

Hobby is an addiction. I would love to free myself from it but it's getting worse. I literally wake up at 4am every day and look at data from bed While I am not at the waking up at 4am stage...I too look at the model runs when I first wakeup. There is an addictive quality to this hobby...(and it only gets worse when we have a storm to track and it's in the medium range or closer, lol).

That is awesome indeed...Layering up for the bitter cold was well worth it!

Not depressed man....its been a very uneven winter. We have had one storm since met winter started and it's almost February. And now the data is backing off the great looks we are seeing and we dealing with mixed events when I expected feb 2003 at some point How much snow would make you happy? And why aren't you more content with what you've gotten so far? (you almost have twice as much as some of us, lol)

Would one of you mind circling where exactly the -NAO is? I still don't quite know what it looks like on these maps,

Well...this would be a nice silver lining for the weekend...I hope he's right and it gets clear enough!!

I just don't understand that...90% of their winters, a fly sneezes and they get 2 feet just like that. I just don't understand how they can be as manic (or more) manic than we are down here. Some of them wouldn't last a winter in the Mid-atlantic!

What difference would that make? Lol And it's always an indicator of a futile storm when we gotta say things like "we could get a little on the front end" or "may mix early for north and west burbs"...no consolation prize, lol

I'll be honest...feels like posting the actual pictures of fail scenarios in fantasy range only exacerbates the worrying mania in here. But then again, it is the long range thread and it is what we discuss here, lol

Wow...well that is reassuring to see (as long as it ain't the dreaded dry). But given how it has precipitated almost every weekend since September (How uncommon is that, btw? It's like clockwork!) if that trend continues...at least some of those weekends are gonna be frozen! (during the week won't hurt either, of course! )

The other half of the forum needs a big storm to catch up to climo...I'm at about 8" right now...Small events might not cut it! So we got to get at least one or two decent (or bigger) hits to hit a forum-wide climo, lol

Since the opinion/analysis of people like you or psu carries much weight here, if either of you troll, perhaps it can be hard to decipher if you're being serious or not, lol

Our storm this weekend were multiple times modeled as 20 to 30 inch storms. Another example of a 50 50 storm that trended badly Again...what about last weekend? Forgive me if I can't understand your complaint after you got close to a foot! And ya didn't honestly take those 20-30 inch fantasy runs seriously, did you? And the fact that this weekend didn't work out really shouldn't be a surprise...to me, it was pretty clear even 6-7 days ago that we would struggle to produce with that kind of track!

Wow that is depressing...mercy.

Depends on what you mean by "not that cold"...I remember there being some pretty bitter cold that winter (I have a distinct memory of our water cooler jugs getting completely frozen out on the porch once, lol)

Lol That's how I feel whenever I hear a low-snow analog year thrown around like it was epic...blech